Apple Set to Capture 46% Share in North America Foldables Market in 2026, Pressuring Competitors
- North America’s foldable smartphone market is expected to grow 48% YoY in 2026, with Apple set to capture a 46% share, triggering a major competitive reset.
- Google is set to face direct pressure due to its single-foldable lineup closely aligned with Apple’s expected form factor and pricing. Its share is projected to decline from 5% in 2025 to 3% in 2026 despite a product refresh.
- Motorola, which drove recent growth through its clamshell portfolio, is projected to see its share fall from 44% to 23% in 2026, even as it expands into the book-type segment with its Razr Fold.
- Samsung, while more resilient globally, is expected to face significant pressure in North America, with its share declining from 51% to 29% despite the possibility of expanding its lineup with a wide-type Galaxy Z Fold variant.
Seoul, Beijing, Berlin, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, Taipei, Tokyo – April 13, 2026
North America’s foldable smartphone market is set to undergo its most significant structural shift to date in 2026, driven by Apple’s entry into the segment, according to Counterpoint Research’s Foldable Smartphone Market Forecast. With the market expected to grow 48% YoY in 2026, Apple is projected to capture a 46% share in its first year, reshaping demand dynamics and redistributing share across existing vendors. This shift is expected to place pressure on vendors that recently gained traction in the region, particularly Google and Motorola.
Google may face notable downward pressure, driven by the structural reallocation of market shares following Apple’s entry. In addition, given that its single-foldable lineup is closely aligned with Apple’s expected device in both form factor and price positioning, part of its existing demand base may shift toward Apple’s ecosystem. As a result, its share is projected to decline from 5% in 2025 to 3% in 2026 despite a product refresh.
Motorola, which reached a 44% share in the North American foldable market in 2025 on strong momentum, is set for a decline to 23% in 2026, as Apple’s entry reshapes the competitive landscape. While the brand is preparing to expand into the book-type segment with its Razr Fold, it could face meaningful downside pressure on the device’s volume expansion, particularly if no clear pricing or specification advantage emerges.
Samsung is also projected to see a significant decline in North America, with its share falling from 51% in 2025 to 29% in 2026, as Apple’s entry further shifts market dynamics and heightens competition in the book-type segment. While the company is set to expand its foldable lineup with a wide-type Galaxy Z Fold variant designed to compete more directly with Apple, achieving meaningful differentiation in Apple’s home market may remain challenging.
North America Foldable Smartphone Market Share by OEM, 2025 vs. 2026F
Apple’s entry is expected to drive foldable smartphone market expansion by unlocking upgrade demand within its existing iPhone user base, particularly in the ultra-premium segment. At the same time, part of this demand is projected to include replacement demand from existing Android foldable users, suggesting that Apple’s volumes may not be fully incremental to the market in the early stage of 2026.
“Google and Motorola have been key growth drivers in North America, but Apple’s foldable iPhone is set to significantly alter that trajectory,” said Associate Director Liz Lee. “While current expectations for a stable launch timeline and production ramp remain intact, concerns around potential initial supply constraints are beginning to emerge. However, it remains too early to draw firm conclusions, and the extent and scale of any such limitations will likely become clearer as mass production ramps up going forward.”
As competition intensifies and vendors adjust their strategies, 2026 is set to mark a transition from early Android-led growth to more ecosystem-driven competition, with Apple set to establish a new benchmark in the premium foldable segment.
About Counterpoint Research
Counterpoint Research is a global market research firm specializing in products across the technology ecosystem. We advise a diverse range of clients – from smartphone OEMs to chipmakers and channel players to Big Tech – through our offices located in the world's major innovation hubs, manufacturing clusters and commercial centers. Our analyst team, led by seasoned experts, engages with stakeholders across the enterprise – from the C-suite to professionals in strategy, analyst relations (AR), market intelligence (MI), business intelligence (BI), product and marketing – to deliver services spanning market data, industry thought leadership and consulting. Our core areas of coverage include AI, Automotive, Consumer Electronics, Displays, eSIM, IoT, Location Platforms, Macroeconomics, Manufacturing, Networks and Infrastructure, Semiconductors, Smartphones and Wearables. Visit our Insights page to explore our publicly available market data, insights and thought leadership, and to understand our focus, meet our analysts and start a conversation.
Follow Counterpoint Research
Receive our insightful weekly newsletter and stay ahead of the competition.
Author
Liz Lee
Liz, an Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, has 14+ years of extensive experience in the tech industry. Previously, Liz worked for Samsung SDI focusing on IR (Investor Relations) along with insight-based analysis of emerging tech markets and corporate strategies. She holds an International MBA degree from Waseda Business School.