We have updated Counterpoint Research’s Quarterly OLED Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report for Q2 2026 with our latest capacity outlook for the industry and forecast for OLED panel demand. The biggest change in our outlook stems from the slowdown in demand resulting from large price increases in smartphone handsets, caused by the surge of demand for memory chips to fill data centers targeted at Artificial Intelligence. Our forecast for demand for OLED smartphones and IT products has been reduced for 2026-2027. Lower demand means a greater oversupply, which will make the pricing environment for OLED panels challenging.

The report combines Counterpoint Research’s comprehensive view of OLED capacity with our equally thorough analysis of OLED demand and compares supply and demand for both smaller screens and large-gen sizes. Counterpoint’s OLED capacity outlook extends to 2030 and covers the capacity for 97 different phases of OLED capacity investments over 13 different panel makers. The report details the industry’s supply capacity by manufacturer, country, substrate type (flexible/rigid/hybrid), deposition type, backplane type, color type and form factor.

In both small and large screens, OLED capacity today is led by South Korean panel makers Samsung and LGD, respectively. Capacity additions in China, including not only Chinese panel makers but also LGD’s fab in Guangzhou, have increased the country’s capacity share from 5% in 2017 to 45% in 2025. While capacity will increase in both regions, we forecast that capacity in China will be close to that of South Korea in 2028 and will surpass South Korea in 2029 and 2030. We do not forecast any OLED expansions in any other regions.

LGD’s combination of Gen 8.5 WOLED capacity in South Korea and China, plus Gen 6 capacity for smaller sizes in South Korea, gives it the industry lead in OLED capacity. But SDC’s addition of Gen 8.7 RGB OLED for IT applications, plus incremental Gen 8.5 capacity for QD OLED, has brought SDC to a close second place and by 2030, the difference between the two South Korean manufacturers will be less than 1%.

In large-screen applications, LGD will continue to lead throughout our forecast, but incremental capacity additions by Samsung will reduce LGD’s share of capacity from 99% in 2020 to 78% in 2026. Our capacity database includes CSOT’s Gen 5.5 inkjet-printed OLED fab transferred from JOLED, which will reach its full capacity in 2026, but we do not expect more capacity additions for large-screen applications.

In flexible OLED panels (which include panels for foldable and rollable devices), Samsung’s leading share of capacity has declined from 40% in 2021 to 30% in 2025 as Chinese panel makers have aggressively added capacity. BOE will surpass SDC to take the #1 spot by 2028 with a large increase in Gen 8.7 capacity. By 2030, BOE’s share will plateau as it adds capacity at the same pace as the rest of the industry. BOE is a close #2 in flexible capacity with a 25% share in 2025, and we expect BOE’s share will increase to 27% in 2030. By 2030, BOE’s share of flexible OLED capacity will reach 28%, while SDC’s share slips to 26%.

Flexible OLED Input Area for Mobile Applications by Manufacturer

While the input area is important, especially for materials suppliers, the supply/demand outlook is shaped by the product mix and yield. The report works through the details of fab ramps, yield curves and product mix to estimate the total industry output as shown in the figure below. Our report reflects the reality in the industry that yields on mobile OLED panels are lower for all panel makers compared to Samsung Display, and that yields on larger-size panels for IT applications will start at levels lower than smartphone yields. But our forecast sees continued yield improvements as panel makers progress through the experience curve.

Flexible OLED Mobile Panel Output Area (Supply Capacity in Sq Mt) by Manufacturer

Counterpoint’s demand forecast covers 11 different applications, and the details are available in its Quarterly OLED Shipment Report​. The OLED Supply/Demand report includes a summary of our forecast by application. 

In working out the total supply/demand balance, we need to work in area terms, and our forecast for OLED display panel area by major application is shown in the next chart. OLED demand declined in 2022 for the first time ever and then declined further in 2023, as the increase in other applications was insufficient to overcome the soft demand and the inventory correction in TVs. TV share of area dropped from 52% in 2021 to 40% in 2023 and 38% in 2025. We forecast that the TV share of the overall OLED demand area will slowly decline to 33% in 2030. The area demand for “all other” applications will climb to 25% of the total by 2030, driven by IT applications (monitors, notebooks and tablets), while smartphones fall to 42% of OLED area demand.

OLED Panel Area Demand by Application

Now putting that together into the supply/demand picture, the final chart shows our outlook for OLED panels for mobile and IT applications. Subscribers of the report can see independent supply/demand curves for rigid and flexible OLED panels, plus a view combining rigid OLED and flexible OLED. The recovery in demand for rigid OLED panels for smartphones in 2024 reduced oversupply substantially, but investment in new capacity kept the oversupply level stable in 2025. With reduced demand in 2026, oversupply is expected to increase. We expect demand to grow faster than capacity over the five-year forecast horizon, but oversupply will remain higher than 20%.

OLED Supply/Demand for Mobile Panels, 2022-2030

On the larger screen side, OLED faces a strong competitor in MiniLED LCD, which has recently been augmented by RGB MiniLED. We expect that demand growth for OLED TV and monitor panels will exceed supply growth throughout the forecast period, and the oversupply will slowly ease from 51% in 2024 down to 25% in 2030.

Counterpoint Research’s Quarterly OLED Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report gives a comprehensive perspective on the OLED industry. For more information about the report, please e-mail [email protected] or contact your regional Counterpoint Research office in China, Japan or South Korea.