Memory Prices Soar by 50% in Q4, Rally to Continue in 2026
The memory market has entered a "Hyper-Bull" phase, with current conditions eclipsing the historic 2018 peak. Supplier leverage is at an all-time high, driven by an insatiable demand for AI and server capacity. Memory prices are expected to surge 40%-50% in Q4 2025 and further increases of 40%-50% are expected in Q1 2026 and around 20% in Q2 2026.
Price Trajectory: Shattering Historical Records
64GB RDIMM prices, which jumped from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, are targeted to reach $700 by March 2026.
- The $1,000 Milestone: It would not be surprising if prices climbed to $1,000 this year, reaching $1.95 per Gb, which is almost double its 2018 high of $1.00 per Gb.
Structural Shift in BOM Costs
The rising cost of memory is fundamentally altering the Bill of Materials (BoM) for hardware manufacturers:
- Smartphone Impact: Memory accounted for over 10% of the iPhone 17 Pro Max BoM in 2025, a massive leap from the 8% in the iPhone 12 Pro Max seen in 2020. For flagships configured with 16GB-24GB LPDDR5X RAM and 512GB-1TB UFS 4.0 storage, memory can represent 20% or more of total BoM with the current price hikes.
- Legacy Squeeze: Supply for older tech (LPDDR4, eMMC) is evaporating as giants like Samsung and SK hynix, and even Chinese players like CXMT, pivot production to high-margin Server DDR5.
Supply Outlook: Capex is Up, But Relief is Slow
- Demand-Supply Gap: DRAM production is projected to grow 24% YoY in 2026. Although capex is also rising, it will take time to meet demand.
For more details, please refer to Counterpoint Research Memory Monthly Pricing Tracker Report.
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Author
MS Hwang
MS Hwang is a research director at Counterpoint, specializing in memory semiconductor research. MS Hwang brings over 30 years of experience from Samsung Electronics and sell-side brokerage research roles including ABN AMRO, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Samsung Securities.
Jeongku Choi
Jeongku Choi is a Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research based in Seoul, Korea. As an engineer in LG Electronics, she was responsible for commercializing the latest technologies for new products in mobile and automotive. Also analyzing and strategizing the latest Android technology was one of her roles. Her interests are mobile, mobility, AI, and emerging technologies.