Japan Smartphone Market Replacement Demand May Strengthen in 2026 as “Two-Year Return” Program Reaches Maturity
Overview:
• Following the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ discount regulations, the “two-year return” program has solidified its position as a mainstream purchasing model
• As the first wave of program users reaches maturity in 2026, replacement activity is expected to increase, and Docomo’s 3G shutdown may temporarily boost device upgrades.
• Despite short-term tailwinds, long-term recovery may be capped by Japan’s aging population, currency weakness, and inflation
Table of Contents:
- Hidden Driver of Japan’s Recovery: Budget-Conscious Consumers Embrace the “Two-Year Return Program
- Government crackdown on “steep discounts” paved the way for return programs
- 2026: Potential Turning Point as Return Programs, New Models, and 3G Shutdown Align
Number of Pages: 3
Published Date: October 2025
Category
Industry
Smartphone
Service
Premium
Report Type
Report
Time Period
Other
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Author
Steve Lee
Steve is a research analyst at Counterpoint Research, specializing in the Japanese smartphone market. He leads comprehensive analysis by integrating carrier-level promotions, weekly and monthly sell-through data, and regulatory changes to provide an accurate, real-time view of market dynamics. His expertise lies in identifying trends across operators and devices, helping clients navigate Japan’s unique mobile ecosystem. In addition to his work on Japan, he also contributes to research on the global TV market.