Most of the growth in FPD capacity during 2025-2030 will come from China. China’s share of FPD capacity is expected to increase from 73% in 2025 to 75% in 2030 with a CAGR of 2.6%. South Korea’s share is expected to remain steady at 8% from 2025 to 2030, on a 1.8% CAGR. We expect capacity in both Taiwan and Japan to decline during the forecast period, with their shares falling to 15% and 1%, respectively. We had previously forecast one fab in India to begin production in 2029, but this ultimately fell through, and India still has no FPD market share.

China’s dominance of LCD is even greater, as its share of LCD capacity will increase from 76% in 2025 to 79% in 2030. China is increasing its capacity for 85" and larger LCD TVs and is expected to maintain its lead through ongoing productivity gains. As shown in the next chart, China’s share of FPD capacity is increasing across all categories of technology and application. China will surpass 50% of worldwide OLED capacity in 2029, and it will have a majority share of both Mobile/IT and Flexible OLED capacity.

China Share of FPD Capacity by Category

The Gen 8.x group already makes up more than 50% of total FPD capacity, and much of the capacity to be added in the coming years will be that versatile gen size. Gen 8.x share of FPD capacity will peak in 2026 at 54% and maintain until 2030, as total FPD capacity in Gen 8.x sizes will increase by 15% (total, not CAGR) from 2025 to 2030. Capacity will also be added in Gen 6, G8.7 and Gen 9.x, but FPD capacity in Gen 5.5 and smaller sizes is expected to decrease in the forecast period as old fabs are shut down.

Chinese panel makers BOE, CSOT and HKC are expanding existing fabs or adding selected equipment in order to increase their market share in ultra-large TVs sized 85 inches and above.

At the same time, the emergence of RGB MiniLED TVs, HKC’s review of potential Gen 9.x investments, and a possible merger between Sony and TCL are seen as strategic moves aimed at countering the growing momentum of OLED TVs.

Looking at capacity by manufacturer, BOE is expected to maintain a large advantage in total display capacity, but its CAGR during 2025-2030 is now expected to be just 1.5%. China Star’s acquisition of LGD’s Guangzhou Gen 8.5 LCD fabs has boosted its share of FPD capacity to 22% in 2025, and it is expected to sustain that share. With HKC as the third-largest manufacturer by FPD capacity, the top three Chinese panel makers have nearly 60% of worldwide capacity. LGD was #3 as recently as 2022, but it has now fallen to #6 as it has taken most of its LCD capacity out of service.

Much of the technology development in recent years has come from advanced backplane technologies, but as shown in the next chart here, amorphous silicon or a-Si remains the dominant backplane in the FPD industry. a-Si’s backplane capacity share is expected to decline modestly to 79% in 2030 from 82% in 2025 due to greater demand for advanced TV and IT display technologies, along with increased penetration of mobile/IT OLEDs. a-Si capacity is expected to rise at a 1.1% CAGR from 2024 to 2029.

FPD Capacity Share by Backplane

Oxide is expected to maintain a 9%-10% share from 2025 to 2030, helped by growth in OLED TV, IT OLED and IT LCD capacity from both new fabs, such as CSOT t8, and conversions, and rising at a 6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. LTPS is expected to grow at a 1.5% CAGR, maintaining a 7% share from 2022 to 2030. LTPO is expected to grow at a 11.1% CAGR, with its share of capacity growing to 4% in 2029, driven by demand for variable refresh rates in mobile and IT OLED devices, resulting in both improved performance and lower power. BOE, China Star and Visionox’s adoption at G8.7 is also a catalyst.

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