The rally in LCD TV panel prices that started at the beginning of the year has run its course. When panel makers started increasing utilization in March, the demand-supply balance shifted and prices peaked before starting to decline in Q2. However, the Q2 declines are moderate, with prices staying in a relatively small range and continuing the unprecedented run of relative stability.

Some positive demand signals led panel makers to increase utilization in Q1 2025. A subsidy program implemented in China led to a modest uptick in TV sales, while there was some demand pulled forward in the IT sector as OEMs rushed to stock inventory in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs. We estimate that TFT LCD input increased 6% QoQ even with the Lunar New Year holiday, which traditionally is a shutdown period for panel makers, and with the smaller number of days (Q1 had 90 days against 92 days in Q4).

The first chart here highlights our latest TV panel price update with a forecast through July 2025. The chart starts with the rally that began after prices hit all-time lows in September 2022. Prices increased in the middle two quarters of 2023, followed by a period of stability with two mild slumps and two mild rallies up to now, and the third mild slump starting in Q2 2025.

Most prices in April came in right in line with our expectations that prices would be flat compared to March. Last month, we projected that prices would start to decline in May, and that is still our prediction. But on some of the larger screen sizes, the MoM decline in May is more moderate than our outlook one month ago.

LCD TV Panel Prices, January 2023 – July 2025

Prices in Q4 2024 saw an average decrease of 2.0% as they flattened out. Q1 2025 prices were an average of 2.8% higher than Q4 2024 prices. With prices increasing from January to March and then decreasing from April to June, we now estimate that the average price for most screen sizes in Q2 will be the same as Q1. Only the smallest screen size in our mix, 32”, will have a slightly lower average price in Q2, and thus the average price change across all screen sizes is expected to be a 0.2% decline.

As we look at pricing in terms of area, the long period of relative price stability seems to be the characteristic feature of the chart. It has now been nearly two years since prices have stayed within a narrow range. In this period of stability, the products fall into three levels:

• The lowest-priced products are 32” and 43”, the most commoditized sizes. 32” panels seem to get a kick when prices increase but then fall back when prices decline. These two products are efficient 18 cuts per substrate on Gen 8.5 (32”) and Gen 10.5 (43”). During the whole period from July 2023 to our forecast for July 2025, the 43” panel price has stayed between $118 and $129 per square meter.
• The mid-tier products are 49”/50”, 55”, 65” and 75”, with the largest size usually coming at the highest price. These sizes are also made efficiently on Gen 8.5 (49”/50” and 55”) and Gen 10.5 (65” and 75”). These panels have fluctuated between $139 and $167 per square meter. The 75” panels, whose prices peaked in March-April at $166, commanded a premium before mid-2023.
• The only premium product is the 85” panel, which has fluctuated between $178 and $185 during this period, a premium of nearly $20 per square meter.

Monthly Area Prices Per Square Meter for LCD TV Panels, January 2020 – July 2025

Our final chart in this sequence shows our LCD TV panel price index, taking a longer view from 2015 through June 2025. The price increases in early 2024 brought our index up to a peak of 45.6 at mid-year 2024, slightly higher than the peak in 2023 and 49% higher than the all-time low of September 2022. The next trough was in September 2024 at 43.1, and the peak in Q1 2025 was at 44.7 in March and April. We now expect the panel price index to decline to 42.9 in July.

LCD TV Panel Price Index, January 2015 – July 2025

Following the blue line in the chart, we can see that the period from mid-2023 to today is radically different than the period from 2015 to 2023. We no longer have wild swings in prices. As of April 2025, our price index remained within a relatively tight range of 41.8 to 45.6 for 21 months, and we expect that prices will stay within this range at least through July 2025.

As we expected based on the price increases in Q1, panel makers that have reported Q1 2025 financial results have reported increased profits. Overall, prices seem to be fluctuating around a level that allows the Chinese panel makers, with a cost advantage from government subsidies, to make a small profit while Taiwanese panel makers come close to breakeven. While this does not allow for a financial return on investments, it is much better than the severe losses during market gluts in prior years.