Foundry Monthly Intelligence Report, May 2026
Overview: This Foundry Monthly Intelligence Report provides timely, always-on market intelligence to keep you aligned with the latest developments in the foundry ecosystem. It includes ad hoc deep dives into emerging trends and market shifts, along with concise analyst takeaways that deliver real-time, decision-ready insights to support strategic planning and execution.
Table of Contents
N3 Demand Surge Strengthens TSMC's Pricing Power Amid Persistent Capacity Constraints
- TSMC is expected to implement a second round of N3 wafer price increases of 5-10% in H2 2026, as AI-driven demand continues to exceed current capacity despite ongoing expansion.
- Supported by NVIDIA, Google, AWS, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, N3 is on track to become TSMC's largest advanced-node platform and a key driver of revenue growth through 2028.
Google TPU Roadmap Pivot: MediaTek’s Ascension, Broadcom’s Resilience, and the Whalefish Architecture
- MediaTek is solidifying its core role in Google's AI ASIC roadmap, with the Humufish project serving as a critical milestone to reduce reliance on TSMC and Broadcom.
- Despite MediaTek's wallet-share gains, Broadcom’s absolute revenue will compound, protected by its industry-leading SerDes IP and a multi-generational supply agreement extending through 2031.
- Google has scrapped the clean-sheet "Pumafish" design in favor of "Whalefish", prioritizing time-to-market and proven inference silicon to address surging workload bottlenecks.
CoPoS Delays Reinforce Near-Term CoWoS Capacity Tightness in 2026-2027
- CoPoS development has been more challenging than expected, pushing potential mass production from 2028 to at least H2 2029, which delays the migration from wafer-based to panel-based advanced packaging.
- The delay extends the life cycle of CoWoS in AI packaging platform, though sustained demand from AI GPUs and ASICs continuing to outpace CoWoS capacity expansion plans through 2026-2027.
- CoWoS supply tightness may also open the door for alternative packaging solutions, including Intel’s EMIB/EMIB-T, which could gain incremental traction on cost and flexibility advantages.
The Capacity Expansion Continues in 2026 for China’s Top 2 Foundries, as Demand Booms for Both Advanced and Matured Nodes
- In 2026, China’s top 2 foundries, SMIC and Hua Hong Grace (HHG), maintain a steady pace in capacity expansion, with ~60KWPM added in total.
- SMIC’s expansion plan incorporates both advanced and matured nodes to support strong demand, while HHG is dedicated to ramping up 40/45nm and 55/65nm in Fab 9A.
Category
Industry
Semiconductors
Service
Foundry
Report Type
Report
Time Period
Monthly
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Author
Brady Wang
Hi, I’m Brady Wang, a seasoned professional with over 20 years of experience in the high-tech industry, spanning semiconductor manufacturing, market intelligence, and strategic advisory roles. Currently, I serve as an analyst at Counterpoint Research, where I specialize in semiconductors with a focus on advanced applications such as automotive, server platforms, and cutting-edge process nodes. My core research centers on AI servers and their key components, including GPUs, custom accelerators, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), CPUs, and advanced packaging technologies. I also track the evolution of AI server architectures, interconnect technologies, and data center deployment trends. By combining deep technical knowledge with market insight, I help clients navigate the fast-changing AI infrastructure landscape and make strategic, data-driven decisions.
William Li
William is a Research Analyst in Semiconductor and Components team, based in Taiwan. He has over 8 years of experience in global PC (personal computer) and semiconductor market. Before Counterpoint, he was an equity research analyst at Credit Suisse, focused on both technology and non-technology sectors as well as supporting Taiwan equity market strategy research. Prior, he worked for a Taiwan PE fund as a research analyst covering semiconductor and downstream components sector.
David Wu
David Wu is a Research Associate at Counterpoint Research in Taiwan, dedicated to foundry and semiconductor research, providing insights into market trends and key industry developments. Prior to joining Counterpoint Research, he gained experience in Deal Advisory, Private Equity, and TMT Corporate Banking, where he built a solid foundation in industry research and financial analysis. David Wu holds a double bachelor’s degree in Accounting and International Business from National Chengchi University.
Shawn Zhang
Shawn is a Research Associate at Counterpoint Research. He has a strong academic background in semiconductor-related fields, holding both bachelor's and master's degrees in Electrical Engineering. Prior to joining Counterpoint Research, he served as a Research Assistant at the University of Texas at Austin, where he focused on integrated circuit (IC) design. He has a deep interest in the semiconductor industry and is driven by a passion for innovation and excellence in industry research. His technical foundation enables him to deliver in-depth insights that bridge engineering expertise with market intelligence.