China's Smartphone Market Forecast to Drop 5% YoY in 2026
- China’s smartphone sales are expected to be flat or post marginal YoY growth in 2025. However, a pronounced decline of 5% YoY is projected for 2026.
- In 2026, China market will face a mix of challenges and opportunities. Factors such as rising memory prices and sluggish economy are expected to weigh on market performance.
- The national subsidy program is set to continue in 2026, but it is unlikely to significantly boost smartphone sales.
- Innovation-driven opportunities are taking shape, with Apple’s anticipated foldable device poised to unlock new market demand and ByteDance’s entry into AI smartphones likely to inspire OEMs and accelerate industry-wide technological progress.
China's smartphone market saw fluctuations in 2025, with sales softening in H2 due to subdued consumer demand. However, an extended Singles’ Day promotional period and the earlier launch of flagships provided a temporary relief. As a result, full-year smartphone sales are expected to be flat or post marginal YoY growth.
Looking ahead to 2026, the market will be full of both challenges and opportunities. Challenges mainly stem from rising memory costs and supply constraints, which will squeeze OEMs' profit margins, leading to reduced production of low-end models and price increases across entire product portfolios. Sluggish economy and higher prices may dampen consumer demand, potentially prolonging the current market downturn.
At the same time, innovation-driven opportunities are taking shape. Apple's anticipated foldable device could unlock new market demand and reshape the foldable competitive landscape. Meanwhile, the recent launch of the Doubao Phone by ByteDance and ZTE, despite facing user experience challenges, offers the industry a valuable case study in observing market feedback and reconsider how to develop a truly desirable AI phone.
On the policy front, the Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 10 to 11, called for further optimization of the implementation of the “Two New” policies. This signals that the national subsidy program will be extended into 2026. Given that the effect of subsidies has already diminished in 2025, we expect that such a policy is unlikely to significantly stimulate sales, it is expected to provide a cushion amid the economic slowdown.
Taking all these factors into account, smartphone sales in China are projected to decline by 5% YoY in 2026. The market is expected to bottom in H2 2026 and likely recover in H1 2027 once supply stabilizes.
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Author
Alicia Gong
Alicia Gong is a Research Analyst who is tracking smartphone and ecosystem devices at Counterpoint Research. Prior to joining Counterpoint Research, She served at ChinaVenture and Copal Partners.