The Gainers: Major Brands Xiaomi and OPPO Continue Growth

Xiaomi has continued to perform well this year, with shipments rising 11% YoY in Q3 2025. Redmi’s Note 14 series and A-series were both well-received, while Poco’s M-series assisted in boosting growth. The Note 14 series, which adopted a more streamlined approach, was priced lower than its predecessor a year ago[NS3.1]. The model also adopted 5G in the base Note 14 variant. Xiaomi effectively leveraged online channels by combining live commerce with interactive, celebrity-led onboarding sessions. This strategy helped the brand emerge as the top smartphone seller during Shopee’s 9.9 sale, leading both in shipment volumes and gross merchandise value (GMV). Xiaomi has also maintained a consistent presence on social media with regular posts and engagements, especially on Facebook. The online efforts have been effectively complemented by its offline expansion as Xiaomi established its 100th experiential store in SM City Calamba on November 20 2025.

The other major brand to make an impact was OPPO. The brand delivered the second-highest YoY growth at 67%, driven primarily by its sub-$150 models such as the OPPO A5x. The A5 series alone contributed to more than two-thirds of OPPO’s shipments in the Philippines due to its durability. Additionally, with a few exceptions, OPPO was the only brand using Qualcomm chipsets for tis entire line of 4G models priced under $150. This aligns with Filipino consumers' preferences regarding gaming, where performance is an essential criterion. OPPO’s performance was further amplified by inventory loading ahead of the holiday season and multiple promotional campaigns, including the OPPO 10.10 event, which featured steep discounts and collaboration with MLBB (Mobile Legends) for bundle promotions.

The Stagnant: Maintaining Share, Losing Velocity

Samsung’s grew by just 1% YoY in Q3 2025, reflecting a more subdued performance compared to Chinese OEMs. Still, the brand remains competitive across both the budget (<$150) and mid-range ($250-$350) segments through models like the A07, A06 5G, and the discounted A56 series. Samsung is also selling older models like the A16 series at discounted prices, thus making Samsung 5G phones under $150 more accessible. Samsung’s advantage lies less in pricing and more in brand trust, reliable after-sales service, wide offline coverage, and long-term software support, including its six-year OS update commitment. These factors help it retain customers even when its specs are not necessarily the most aggressive.

Transsion brands, Infinix, TECNO, and itel, after posting exceptional growth through 2023 and 2024, are now entering a stabilization phase. Although Q3 2025 shipments increased due to multiple launches from TECNO and Infinix ,and the strong performance of brands during Shopee’s September 9.9 promos, the overall growth trajectory is flattening. With over 40% share of the budget segment already secured, Transsion’s ultra-low-end strategy is approaching saturation, especially as memory price shocks hit the budget smartphone category. Increased competition from realme and Xiaomi in the same price tier is also limiting Transsion’s headroom. The company is now beginning to shift focus toward higher price bands to drive margin accretion.

The Emerging Player: HONOR’s Rapid Rebuild

HONOR has identified the Philippines as a key market for expansion and has invested heavily in marketing and retail presence. This is reflected in the brand’s 342% YoY surge in Q3 2025 shipments, positioning it as the country’s fastest-growing smartphone brand. HONOR adopted a dual-pronged approach, marketing its low-cost X series products for their sturdiness and high-end phones for their cameras. While the X5B and X5B+ drove the budget segment (<$150), the HONOR 400 took the lead in the higher-priced segments, with the model reporting 13 times higher bookings in the first three days of launch over its predecessor. Another important aspect of HONOR’s positioning has been the incorporation of AI in its marketing, either by highlighting features like a dedicated AI button or promoting AI dual cameras. HONOR is also undergoing rapid retail expansion, operating through 216 authorized retail spots and 21 operational service centers, and now has 37 experience stores besides partnering with over 2,500 retail outlets nationwide.

Market Outlook

As the Christmas season arrives in the Philippines, we can expect a decline in shipments for most brands, as higher prices, stemming from increased LPDDR4 memory, kick in, typically affecting the budget segment. Further inventory builtup by Samsung and OPPO just before Q4 2025 and earlier launches of various entry-level smartphones like the Smart 10, Hot 60i, and Spark Go may bring down the Philippines’ shipments in Q4 2025, despite it being a festive quarter.

Going into 2026, we expect the market to be more subdued as brands struggle with higher prices. Leading brands that focus on budget phones will re-strategize and increase profit margins as their high-volume strategy runs its course. Brands operating in the premium segments stand to gain due to better consumer responses and will be relatively less affected by memory prices. Brands that have an integrated supply chain and higher profit margins are in a better position to weather the storm. Altogether, the mid- and premium-tier segments are expected to grow. However, it will not be enough to fully cushion the decline or stagnancy in the entry-level segment, thus leading us to expect either a flattish market or a decline in 2026 shipments compared to 2025.