Counterpoint Macro Index

0
Jan 31, 2025

Counterpoint Macro Index: Q4 2024

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.
We cover four main areas: Consumer SentimentGeneral Business SentimentTech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?

SOURCE: Counterpoint Macro Index - Q4 2024
Published Date: 31st January 2025

The Good

Economic data:

  • GDP - Stable growth across most regions.
  • Inflation - In manageable territory but some uneasiness over flare-ups.
  • Interest rates - Continue on a downward trajectory in the developed world. Rate cuts cycle firmly in motion.
  • China – Annual GDP target to be met, supported by stimulus.

Tech Sentiment:

  • AI wave continues, spreading to other areas like energy and infrastructure.
  • Consumer devices expect to rebound, more in terms of value than volume.

The Bad

Domestic politics in the West:

  • Significant uptick in risk of tariff war between US and key trading partners.

China:

  • Still weak fundamentals, with consumer sentiment in a doom cycle.

Inflation:

  • Trade war and tax cuts could lead to unsustainable fiscal position in the US.

Regulation:

  • Regulatory regimes in US and rest of the world diverge.
  • Rapid withdrawal of US from ESG agendas.

Likely Trajectory

Positive momentum to continue through 2025

  • Q4’s one-year forecast has been upgraded due to a positive economic trajectory.

Huge non-quantifiable risks on the horizon:

  • Radical US policy changes in 2025, impacting global trade relationships.
  • Geopolitical conflicts could reverse course, finally leading to conflict resolution in Ukraine and Gaza.
  • Regulatory landscape becoming murky, as friction with Big Tech increases while laissez-faire approach is adopted by Trump administration.

Summary

Category

Data

Published

Jan 31, 2025

Subscribe to our newsletter

Author

Team Counterpoint

Counterpoint research is a young and fast growing research firm covering analysis of the tech industry. Coverage areas are connected devices, digital consumer goods, software & applications and other adjacent topics. We provide syndicated research reports as well as tailored. Our seminars and workshops for companies and institutions are popular and available on demand. Consulting and customized work on the above topics is provided for high precision projects.