• For the autonomous vehicle industry, 2024 was the year when the industry made a leap forward with significant advancements in scaling, commercialization and global expansion.
• Currently, China leads the robotaxi market, with over 16 cities operating these autonomous vehicles.
• Apart from China, the US is another country leading the development of self-driving technology, with Waymo scaling operations in Los Angeles and San Fransico.

For the autonomous vehicle industry, if 2023 was more about navigating technical, regulatory and operational challenges, 2024 was the year when the industry made a leap forward with significant advancements in scaling, commercialization and global expansion. Companies like Waymo expanded to new cities, while Baidu's Apollo Go began operating fully autonomously 24/7 in Wuhan. Tesla made the most-awaited announcement of introducing its “Cybercab” to disrupt the robotaxi industry through its vision for “affordable robotaxis”. These announcements points to the direction industry is headed.

Global autonomous vehicle market

Currently, China leads the robotaxi market, with over 16 cities operating these autonomous vehicles. Baidu's Apollo Go boasts the largest fleet of more than 400 driverless vehicles in Wuhan. Recently, it also received approval to test self-driving taxis in Hong Kong. Apart from China, the US is another country leading the development of self-driving technology, with Waymo scaling operations in Los Angeles and San Fransico. Further, WeRide has started offering robotaxis through Uber in the UAE. Autonomous vehicle testing is happening in many other countries, with South Korea, Germany, and Japan close to launching robotaxi operations by 2025.

Europe-based company Verne has partnered with Mobileye to launch a robotaxi service in Zagreb in 2026. They plan to expand to other cities in the UK and Germany by 2027. The company aims to provide service in 11 cities across the EU, UK and the Middle East. Counterpoint Research estimates that the global robotaxi fleet will reach 1.6 million units by 2035.

Waymo: Sole leader in the Western market

For Google-backed Waymo, which started the first US robotaxi service in 2020, 2024 has been a big year of growth and scalability. The company has completed 5 million rides in total, of which 4 million came in 2024, an increase of 400% in a year. Furthermore, rides per week have risen by 250% in the last six months. Waymo operates its services in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix, with plans to expand to Miami, Austin and Atlanta.

Source: Waymo

In a market where operators are struggling to sustain their operations, resulting in shutdowns (Cruise) or disinvestments (Aptiv) of driverless programs, Waymo has raised $5.6 billion in a funding round and another $5 billion from Alphabet, bringing its total capital raised to over $11 billion and its valuation to $45 billion. This puts Waymo way ahead of its competitors.

BONUS VIDEO: Waymo, Real Robotaxi versus Tesla's Concept

Outlook

There are few US competitors to Waymo, like Motional and Zoox, but these companies are still in the testing phase. Waymo has driven over 32.2 billion kilometers in the real world and simulation. Tesla can emerge as a fierce competitor to Waymo as it has more than 5 million vehicles fitted with FSD hardware and 3.2 billion cumulative kilometers driven with Tesla FSD till Q3 2024. Tesla has the advantage of scalability as the company has a presence in multiple countries worldwide and collects data from those countries to train its AI model. On the other hand, Waymo is expanding into its first international market, Japan, where it is still learning the nuances of left-hand traffic by collecting data, training its AI model and mapping the key areas.
Contrary to the Western market, China has multiple players offering robotaxi services. Some of them are Baidu’s Apollo Go and Pony.ai, AutoX and WeRide. Baidu has stood out as a clear leader in the competitive market, surpassing 8 million cumulative rides in October. Players like WeRide, Pony.ai and AutoX are targeting markets outside China. Tesla has also plans to introduce its FSD in China in 2025, which can open the door to introducing its robotaxi in China.