• Initial sales of Apple’s latest iPhone generation in the US trail slightly those of last year’s iPhone 15 series through the first four weeks of availability.
• Wireless carriers continue to report weak upgrade rates through Q3 2024 but look forward to a seasonal uptick in smartphone sales in Q4.
• Apple Intelligence has begun to roll out to users with compatible devices, in time for holiday shoppers to experience Apple’s take on GenAI features before end of year.

San Diego, Fort Collins, London, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo, New Delhi, Beijing, Hong Kong – October 31, 2024

Cumulative sales of Apple’s iPhone 16 series trail its preceding generation of iPhones by a slight -1% YoY in the United States through four weeks of availability, according to Counterpoint’s Weekly Sell-Through Tracker.

Senior Analyst Gerrit Schneemann notes: “In the US, iPhone 16 series sales benefitted from a slightly earlier launch in September, but combined sales have been down YoY vs. last year’s models, despite availability improving compared to initial wait times for iPhone 15 series.” Counterpoint has tracked availability at the major US carriers and Apple’s website since launch, with wait times generally shorter than last year.

US Market Launch Week Sell-Through For iPhone 16, 15 & 14 Series

Source: Counterpoint US Weekly Sell-Through Tracker. L= launch week.

According to Senior Analyst Maurice Klaehne: “US wireless carriers continue to report weak smartphone upgrade rates in their Q3 2024 financial results, indicating that buyers have not seen reasons to change their behavior of holding on to their existing smartphones for longer periods of time – yet.”

Looking ahead into Q4 2024, Counterpoint expects Apple iPhone 16 sell-through to decline YoY in the quarter. However, the following two key drivers are likely to impact sell-through in the quarter and could provide an additional sales boost:

• Apple started rolling out Apple Intelligence at the end of October, the company’s answer to GenAI efforts from Google, Samsung and others to iPhone 16 users. The successful launch of these AI features has the potential to convince existing Apple users to upgrade sooner rather than later.
• Despite weak upgrade rates and declining equipment revenues year-to-date, the major US wireless carriers still anticipate a seasonal uptick in smartphone sales in Q4. Counterpoint anticipates carriers to support the most recent device launches with attractive promotional and trade-in offers as we expect consumers to continue to buy “up” into higher smartphone price segments, in line with trends exhibited in the market over the last couple of years