• The small user base and limited adoption of NB-IoT, coupled with its lower data ARPU, failed to justify the infrastructure costs for AT&T.
• Due to the superior performance capabilities of LTE-M in the US, NB-IoT is being shifted to LTE-M for better performance, efficiency, and economic viability.
• In other regions, NB-IoT is declining as the adoption of high-speed 4G Cat 1 bis increases, with the price gap between NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 bis module narrowing.

AT&T has ceased offering NB-IoT data plans and certifying NB-IoT devices as it begins decommissioning its NB-IoT network in the US. The company plans to transition IoT devices to alternative network technologies such as LTE-M. The phase-out process is currently underway, with the complete shutdown of AT&T’s NB-IoT network expected as early as Q1 2025.

AT&T Shuts Down NB-IoT Network as Limited Adoption Fails to Justify Infrastructure Costs

• AT&T launched its NB-IoT network in 2019, aiming to expand its IoT portfolio. However, NB-IoT adoption in the US has remained limited. As of Q4 2023, AT&T had 127 million cellular IoT connections, primarily relying on 4G and LTE-M technologies where NB-IoT is 2% of its total connection.
• The US market is heavily dominated by LTE-M technology for IoT modules, making NB-IoT less viable for AT&T. Consequently, the company decided to shut down its NB-IoT network, reflecting the challenges in achieving widespread adoption and failing to meet the initial expectations set during its launch.
• While competitors like Verizon and T-Mobile continue to offer NB-IoT services, the industry is trending towards higher-speed IoT technologies. We expect they may also consider discontinuing these services soon. This shift highlights the evolving dynamics of IoT connectivity in the US market.

AT&T is Transitioning its IoT Services from NB-IoT to LTE-M

• Performance and Capabilities: LTE-M supports higher data rates and lower latency compared to NB-IoT, enabling more robust and time-sensitive applications. This makes LTE-M ideal for use cases like asset tracking, logistics, and industrial monitoring, where timely and reliable data transmission is critical. LTE-M's ability to handle voice services and complex data further expands its application potential.
• Cost and Deployment Efficiency: LTE-M leverages existing LTE infrastructure, reducing deployment costs and complexity. In contrast, NB-IoT requires a separate network setup, which can be more expensive to maintain, especially with a smaller user base.
• Economic Viability: AT&T's LTE-M plans start at $1.50 per device per month, whereas NB-IoT plans cost less than $0.50 per device per month. The weaker adoption of NB-IoT in the US market makes it unfeasible for AT&T to sustain the infrastructure. The higher versatility and demand for LTE-M make it a more practical choice for the company.

Current Worldwide Scenario with NB-IoT Deployment

• China remains the largest hub for NB-IoT connections. According to Counterpoint Research’s IoT Connections Tracker, by the end of 2023, there were over 500 million NB-IoT connections in China. Meanwhile, the rest of the world collectively had just 40 million connections.
• However, NB-IoT module shipments in China have been steadily declining since 2023, a trend that continues into 2024. This decline is largely attributed to the growing adoption of 4G Cat 1 bis technology. With the cost of 4G Cat 1 bis modules becoming comparable to NB-IoT modules, customers are opting for the former due to its superior speed and performance. This shift is particularly evident in applications such as e-bikes, asset tracking, logistics, and even in smart metering.
• However, in Europe, LTE-M and 4G are the most used technologies, but NB-IoT is also becoming popular. Its adoption is growing in many countries, supported by regulations, increasing demand, and improved infrastructure. Companies like Deutsche Telekom in Germany and Vodafone in the UK are playing a big role in promoting NB-IoT. Looking ahead, further growth and widespread deployment of NB-IoT are expected across these markets.
• In India, 4G Cat 1 bis has emerged as the dominant technology for smart metering, POS systems, and asset tracking applications. Indian operators such as Jio and Airtel have started offering NB-IoT services, particularly for smart metering solutions. While the current base for NB-IoT in India is relatively low, we expect its adoption to grow in the future as demand for these services increases.

AT&T's decision to phase out NB-IoT reflects the market trends in North America, where the technology has struggled to gain traction. Unlike other regions where NB-IoT serves specific use cases, North America has favoured LTE-M for its better mobility, lower latency, and broader capabilities. By focusing on LTE-M and emerging technologies like 5G eRedCap, AT&T is aligning with future growth opportunities and the industry's shift toward more profitable and scalable IoT solutions.