• AI advanced laptops to drive the first wave AI PC expansion in 2024-25
• Major PC vendors to develop different strategies on AI PCs
• Windows on Arm to capture one-third of PC market as AI PCs grow
• We will live with AI PCs after 2027 with 79% of laptops set to be generative AI enabled

Counterpoint has raised its CAGR forecast for AI laptops. AI advanced laptops and AI-capable laptops now expected to achieve a 5-year CAGR of 49% and 12%, respectively, between 2025 and 2029. The upward revision comes on the back of the rapid growth and development of the entire AI ecosystem over the past five months. PC vendors, chip designers, and software engineers saw strong growth during this period and a variety of laptops equipped with the latest chips and Copilot+ were launched, further solidifying our expectations.

In April 2024, we updated our generative AI laptop forecasts and highilighted that three out of four laptops sold in 2027 will be AI laptops, including AI advanced laptops and AI-capable laptops, which can support generative AI functions with its main processors (GPUs/NPUs). We believe the growing trend will continue.

AI-featured applications and use cases are also crucial for AI PC expansion and deployment, which requires support from the whole PC ecosystem. We also observed that in the AI PC era, semiconductor content benefits from spec upgrades across different components, including CPUs, GPUs, NPUs and memory. Additionally, Windows on Arm will also shake up the PC industry by capturing one-third of the market by 2029. Overall, in our base case forecasts, we expect generative AI laptops to account for 79% of the total laptop market by 2027, with the largest jump in shipments set to occur in 2025-2026.

Exhibit 1: AI Advanced Laptops to Drive AI PC Expansion Going Forward

In the 2000s, personal computers captured everyone’s attention and drove technological development. This was followed by smartphones which grew rapidly to dominate the tech industry in the 2010s. Most people have owned at least one smartphone and use them in their day to day lives. We now expect AI to spearhead the next wave of technological development in the 2020s. Within the AI universe, AI laptops will no doubt be at the center of everything to coordinate various devices and applications.

For our full 4-page research note, please log in to the Research Portal.

If you are not a client, reach out to us at [email protected]