• Global PC shipments fell 15% YoY in Q2 2023 but rose 8% QoQ.
• PC OEMs’ rankings remained unchanged.
• HP and Apple reported relatively resilient performance.
• We maintain a double-digit YoY shipment decline outlook for 2023.
• Global PC shipments will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in H2 2023.

London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – July 14, 2023

Global PC shipments fell 15% YoY in Q2 2023 but rose 8% QoQ, according to Counterpoint’s PC tracker service. Although the inventory levels continued to normalize in Q2, another double-digit YoY decline was recorded after the 28% YoY decline in Q1. Therefore, the YoY decline in Q2 can be seen as relatively stabilizing the shipment downturn since Q1 2022. Also, the QoQ growth in Q2 was the first since Q1 2022. The shipment numbers of Q2 can be considered an early sign of stabilization in the PC market. We can expect a mild recovery in H2 2023 due to the absence of solid growth drivers.

Source: Counterpoint Research

Vendors except HP and Apple suffered double-digit shipment declines

Lenovo’s solid #1 place in shipments remained unchanged in Q2, though the company still experienced an 18% YoY decline due to persistent soft demand in some markets. The double-digit sequential growth is a sign of normalizing demand and healthier inventory levels.

HP’s 22% market share was the highest since Q2 2021, while its resilient shipment numbers were a mix of early inventory correction and incremental Chromebook orders.

Dell reported sequential shipment growth in the quarter but a double-digit YoY decline due to overall demand weakness.

Apple saw a high single-digit shipment growth when compared to last year. The growth was largely due to the relatively low Q2 2022 and partially due to new product launches.

Negative factors are weakening in H2 2023

Though the global PC market shipments saw their first QoQ rise after Q1 2022 in Q2, according to Counterpoint’s Macro Index Tracker, the market may have to experience some turbulence in the second half of this year before seeing the first sunrise. Based on our checks, the end demand has picked up to become stronger than OEM shipments (sell-in), which would likely translate into accelerating re-order demand. In H2 2023, we are expecting back-to-school momentum to strengthen sales numbers coupled with potential AI-enabled and Arm laptop launches. Overall, the market is stepping away from the lull and moving toward a new post-COVID-19 normal.

Source: Counterpoint Research

Global PC shipments to return to pre-COVID-19 levels in H2 2023

We expect the QoQ rebound seen in Q2 2023 to sustain throughout the rest of the year. However, we reiterate our cautiously optimistic view on shipment performance in H2, as we still expect the shipments to decline YoY in the coming quarters before ultimately regaining their growth momentum. Therefore, we maintain our outlook of a double-digit YoY shipment decline in the 2023 full year. But the shipments will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in H2 2023.

We believe the PC inventory will enter 2024 at a healthy level after two more quarters of adjustments. Replacement demand, AI-enabled models and Chromebook renewal could be potential growth drivers even as we keep a close eye on enterprise expenditure plans.