DeepSeek's New Efficient AI Models Challenge Industry's High-cost Paradigm

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Jan 30, 2025

•    DeepSeek’s R1 and V3 Large language Models (LLMs) are open-source and substantially cheaper to use than ChatGPT, with API costs up to 96% lower than ChatGPT’s o1.

•    DeepSeek’s compute-efficient AI models rival the best models on performance, challenging the long-standing AI industry notion that achieving cutting-edge large-scale AI models requires enormous financial investments and brute-force compute power.

•    Although it is still early to predict DeepSeek’s future success, as its models are under intense scrutiny from existing players, investors are now awakening to the possibility of efficient use of resources to enhance performance.

•    It may also prompt AI players to reconsider the current scaling laws and the assumption that significant compute power is essential for training advanced models.

•    The potential reduced demand for compute resources led to an immediate stock market reaction that saw across-the-board selling of stocks related to data centers from chip to power companies.

•    DeepSeek's innovations may be limiting the growth of some chipset players, NVIDIA in particular. However, it is too early to quantify the impact, given that the cost reductions may boost the development of higher quality and costlier LLMs, and many companies are aiming for AGI and Super-Intelligence. Moreover, most players have reiterated their intention of continuing with their current CAPEX plans.

•    A big trend playing out is the closing of the gap between open-source and closed-source AI. DeepSeek and Meta with open-source AI are giving some tough competition to proprietary models such as OpenAI. The rise of open-source LLMs performing at a similar level to proprietary counterparts represents a transformative shift in the AI landscape.

•    As a Chinese company, DeepSeek has added a geopolitical angle to the debate. The timing of key model releases with US announcements of the $500 billion "Stargate Project" is likely not just a coincidence.

•    There are question marks around DeepSeek’s real cost of model training – likely the $6 million cost is not the full picture. However, DeepSeek’s achievements in training efficiency, and the low API cost, are both clear.

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Summary

Published

Jan 30, 2025

Author

Wei Sun

Wei is a Principal Analyst in Artificial Intelligence at Counterpoint. She is also the China founder of Humanity+, an international non-profit organization which advocates the ethical use of emerging technologies. She formerly served as a product manager of Embedded Industrial PC at Advantech. Before that she was an MBA consultant to Nuance Communications where her team successfully developed and launched Nuance’s first B2C voice recognition app on iPhone (later became Siri). Wei’s early years in the industry were spent in IDC’s Massachusetts headquarters and The World Bank’s DC headquarters.

Mohit Agrawal

Mohit is responsible for tracking Digital Transformation and Internet of Things (IoT) at Counterpoint Research. He has over two decades of rich industry experience having worked with large tech companies like Accenture, Airtel, Nokia, and Microsoft in the past. Before joining Counterpoint, Mohit was the co-founder & CEO of a start-up in the competitive and market intelligence space utilizing big data and AI. He is a keen follower of the developments in devices and key internet technologies like IoT, Blockchain, AI, etc.
Mohit is an engineer, MBA and a certified project management professional. He is based out of The Hague in Netherlands.