Counterpoint Macro Index: Q2 2024

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.
We cover four main areas: Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?

SOURCE: Counterpoint Macro Index - Q2 2024
Published Date: 26th August 2024

The Good

Economic data:
• GDP – broad based rebound across most regions
• Interest rates - continue on a downward trajectory in the developed world. Central banks executed the first rate cuts in Q2 2024

Tech Sentiment:
• AI wave continues, benefitting other tech areas like foundry and memory
• Consumer devices expect to rebound, in terms of value than volume

The Bad

Domestic politics in the West:
• Radicalism and rise of far-right surging

China:
• Economic fundamentals still fragile
• Stimulus boost could be short-lived, consumer sentiment in a doom cycle

Geopolitical conflicts:
• Ukraine struggles on the battlefield, fatigue among Western allies
• The Gaza war risks spreading across the Middle East

Regulation:
• US and EU regulators target powerful tech companies
• Higher risk of trade frictions between US and EU, and China

Likely Trajectory

Positive momentum to continue through 2024
• Q2’s one-year forecast has been maintained due to positive trajectory
• Global economic growth prospects see early signs of recovery

The rise of many secondary risks:
• US political divide to lead to radical policy changes in 2025, impacting global trade relationships
• Existing geopolitical conflicts could spread to neighbors
• Renewed threat of US-China trade war
• Regulatory landscape becoming murky, as friction with Big Tech increases

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It includes a regional (US, China, Europe) and segment (Consumer, Business, Tech, and Politics & Policy Sentiment) breakdown of the Index, as well as a ‘Risk-Impact Map’ for the biggest macro issues in the short to medium term.

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