Counterpoint Macro Index: Q3 2024

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.
We cover four main areas: Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?

SOURCE: Counterpoint Macro Index - Q3 2024
Published Date: 30th October 2024

The Good

Economic data:

• GDP - Stable growth across most regions.
• Inflation - Firmly in manageable territory for most central banks.
• Interest rates - Continue on a downward trajectory in the developed world. Rate cuts cycle firmly in motion.
• China - Finally adopts stimulus measure to meet annual GDP growth target.

Tech Sentiment:

• AI wave continues, spreading to other areas like energy and infrastructure.
• Consumer devices expect to rebound, more in terms of value than volume.

The Bad

Domestic politics in the West:

• Radicalism and rise of far-right surging.
• Highly contentious US election.

China:

• Still weak fundamentals, with consumer sentiment in a doom cycle.

Geopolitical conflicts:

• Ukraine struggles on the battlefield, fatigue among Western allies.
• The Gaza war risks spreading across the Middle East.

Regulation:
• US and EU regulators target powerful tech companies
• Higher risk of trade frictions between US and EU, and China

Likely Trajectory

Positive momentum to continue through 2024
• Q3’s one-year forecast has been upgraded due to a positive trajectory.
• Global economic growth prospects see early signs of recovery.

Huge non-quantifiable risks on the horizon:

• The US political divide will lead to radical policy changes in 2025, impacting global trade relationships.
• Existing geopolitical conflicts could spread to neighbours.
• Regulatory landscape becoming murky, as friction with Big Tech increases.
• Supply chain disruption is a likely outcome of all of the above.

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It includes a regional (US, China, Europe) and segment (Consumer, Business, Tech, and Politics & Policy Sentiment) breakdown of the Index, as well as a ‘Risk-Impact Map’ for the biggest macro issues in the short to medium term.

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