In recent years, US policy towards China’s technology sector has tightened materially, the prime example being the Trump administration's executive order that placed Huawei on the entity list in May 2019, which eventually led to a major crisis for the company and a rapid retreat from overseas smartphone markets. In this report we review the likelihood of a ban on Chinese smartphone makers by the new US administration, which we believe is low, but not zero. However political winds in the US, particularly during a Republican administration, could change rapidly. On the other hand, further technological breakthroughs by China’s smartphone players or the wider tech supply chain, including key semiconductor components, software ecosystem and AI, could lead to a different outlook by US policymakers.