Overview:
Compared to our previous forecast (March 2026), this forecast implies a downward revision from a ~12.4% YoY drop to a ~13.6% YoY drop in smartphone shipments in 2026. Memory pricing has trended above prior expectations, with supply tightness persisting into early-to-mid 2026 in light of elevated demand from AI and datacenter applications. As such the price rally is expected to extend well through 2027. The timeline for new memory supply coming online has been pushed back, with momentum towards normalisation starting by late 2027 and reflecting in the market by early 2028. The timeline and trajectory around capacity expansion remains broadly unchanged as compared to March. Furthermore, memory suppliers are not expected to re-allocate capacity to consumer memory.