As we have done each year since 2019, in the first edition of our Weekly Review for 2026, we have some predictions for the year ahead. These predictions focus on developments important to the display industry. Here goes:
#1: LCD TV Panel Prices Will Not Drop Below the Levels of December 2025
While there are a few important companies in the display industry that have stopped making LCD TV panels, notably the two South Korean firms, LCD TV panel prices remain an important indicator for the rest of the industry. We have been tracking these prices since 2014, and our TV panel price index has shown the waves of oversupply and shortage that characterized the Crystal Cycle.
Whereas our price index showed wild swings in the 2010s, and even wilder swings in the boom and bust cycle of the pandemic, since 2023, the index has become dramatically less volatile. We attribute this change to the concentration of LCD supply in China, and specifically among the three biggest companies – BOE, China Star and HKC. These companies have cleverly managed the general oversupply in the industry, slowing down their utilization when prices were falling and ramping up when prices were rising.
LCD TV Panel Price Index, January 2020-March 2026(E)
Source: Counterpoint Research.
The result, as seen on the chart here, is that prices have effectively stabilized within a tight range. For our TV price index, that range has been from 40.4 to 45.6. As a real-world example, that means that prices for 32” TV panels have stayed in the range of $32 to $38, and 65” TV panels have stayed in the range of $162 to $179.
While it’s possible that a surge in TV demand could make prices spike higher, the industry has plenty of capacity to supply a passing gear to keep a lid on prices. Similarly, while demand softness or an inventory train wreck could lead to prices falling, the willingness of the three Chinese panel makers to manage utilization will prevent prices from falling too far.
As shown on the chart, we have hit a recent minimum in December 2025 and expect prices to increase in Q1 2026. Judging from the past few years, the price rally will not extend more than 2-3 quarters, and prices are likely to fall in the back half of the year. But if they fall, they will not fall below the levels of December 2025.
#2: Phosphorescent Blue OLED Emitters Will Have Minimal Impact
A more efficient blue emitter has been the “Holy Grail” of OLED materials companies for more than a decade. Until recently, phosphorescent blue had been regarded as the main next-generation evaporation material through 2025. However, the lifetime issue of phosphorescent blue has still not been overcome, and the outlook at the end of 2024 — that mass production of OLED panels using phosphorescent blue would be difficult even in 2025 — remains valid. As a result, deuterated fluorescent blue is projected to account for most of the blue-related revenue in 2026 as well.
That said, development efforts are actively underway in several directions – improving the short lifetime of phosphorescent blue through hybrid tandem structures that combine phosphorescent blue with HF (hyperfluorescent) blue or fluorescent blue, as well as through competing blue technologies such as Thermally Activated Delayed Fluorescence (TADF) and HF. However, none of these technologies has yet demonstrated meaningful results in blue applications, making it unlikely that they will achieve commercial success in 2026.
In contrast, HF technology is showing meaningful progress in green. Starting with the unveiling and mass production of the F1 structure featuring TSF green for the vivo iQOO Neo 10 at the end of 2024, TADF and HF technologies have been actively showcased and promoted by Chinese panel makers at SID 2025. In addition, at the end of 2025, Huawei’s Mate 80 RS Ultimate model implemented a tandem structure combining TSF and phosphorescent green, achieving a peak brightness of 8,000 nits and BT.2020 color gamut coverage.
In 2026, the number of models incorporating HF technology — primarily from Chinese manufacturers — is expected to increase, although shipment volumes are likely to remain limited. Nevertheless, if the adoption of HF-based models continues to expand, it could bring about significant mid- to long-term structural changes in the evaporation material market, which has traditionally been centered on phosphorescent materials.
New Evaporation Materials Development by Panel Makers
Source: Semi-Annual AMOLED Materials Report Aug 2025 New Evaporation Materials Developments at SID 2025
Source: Semi-Annual AMOLED Materials Report, August 2025
To quantify this prediction, we predict that UDC sales of phosphorescent blue emitter material will be less than $10 million in 2026. Because the Q4 2026 sales will not be disclosed until February 2027, we will count the four quarters from Q4 2025 to Q3 2026. For comparison, UDC sales of blue emitter material from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025 were $4.2 million out of a total of $351 million in material sales.
#3: India’s First Display Fab Announcement Will Happen in Early 2026
For the third year in a row, we are expecting to see an announcement about an FPD fab in India. We have been wrong twice, but as they say, the third time is the charm. The reasons to expect FPD production to arise in India are compelling:
The domestic TV market in India is the third largest country market in the world after China and the US, but unlike China and the US, the Indian market is continuing to grow.
China and South Korea together account for nearly 100% of global OLED production capacity, while China and Taiwan control about 95% of global LCD capacity. This unprecedented concentration has made displays one of the most geopolitically exposed components in the electronics supply chain.
Over the past three years, global OEMs have aggressively pursued China+1 and Korea+1 sourcing strategies to mitigate geopolitical, tariff and supply-continuity risks. While semiconductors have been the initial focus, displays are now the next logical and unavoidable frontier.
Since the launch of the India Semiconductor Mission (ISM 1.0) in December 2021, India has attracted several major semiconductor and OSAT investments. However, the FPD industry, despite being the single largest cost component after chips in most electronic products, has remained absent from India’s manufacturing roadmap.
India today commands ~9% of global FPD revenue, yet 100% of its display demand is imported. Smartphones and TVs alone contribute nearly 80% of domestic FPD consumption, while IT displays and automotive panels are poised for sustained growth as vehicle digitalization and local electronics manufacturing deepen. These dynamic underscores a striking imbalance as India has become a powerhouse of consumer demand, particularly in TVs, yet it remains entirely dependent on imported display panels.
From a China+1/Korea+1 perspective, India stands out on multiple fronts:
Large demand that can anchor fab utilization from day one
Rapidly maturing electronics assembly ecosystem across mobile, TV, IT and automotive
Policy-backed incentives already proven viable through semiconductor investments
Export potential as global OEMs actively seek non-China, non-Korea display supply options
Author
Bob Obrien
Robert J (Bob) O’Brien joined Counterpoint Research as part of its acquisition of DSCC, where he was Co-Founder, Principal and CFO of DSCC. Bob has decades of experience turning market and business analysis into strategic insights in the display and electronics industries. At DSCC, Bob takes the lead role in analysis of display materials, including glass and AMOLED materials, and covers developments in TV and other large-screen display applications. He is the principal author of DSCC’s AMOLED Material Report, the Advanced TV Shipment Report, and the Display Glass Report, and Bob contributes regularly to the DSCC Weekly Review.
Kyle Jang
Kyle Jang joined Counterpoint Research as a Senior Analyst of Display Components and Materials following Counterpoint's acquisition of DSCC. He has 15 years of experience in the FPD industry, specializing in OLED research.
He began his career at UBI Research in 2011 as a researcher and analyst, focusing on OLED evaporation materials and components. In 2018, In 2018, he joined Dongwoo Fine-Chem, a subsidiary of Sumitomo Chemical specializing in display and semiconductor-related materials and components, where he worked in the Market Intelligence Team. His primary focus has been on OLED evaporation materials and display fab utilization.
Nikhil Kishor
With a decade of experience in the display technology sector, Nikhil currently leads the Display 360 platform in India at Counterpoint Research, where he supports display industry clients through a combination of sales leadership, strategic consulting, and market intelligence. His expertise lies in cost modeling for display panels, supply chain analysis, and providing actionable insights across the smartphone, IT, and TV segments. Previously, he worked at Kearney, where he led cost-reduction strategies for display clients, and at Applied Materials as a Technical Lead – New Product Manufacturing Engineer, focusing on display fabrication equipment and supplier optimization.
Jayden Lee
Jayden Lee joined Counterpoint Research as part of its acquisition of DSCC, where he was Director of Display Equipment and Materials. He is located in Seoul, Korea.
Jayden has around 20 years of experience working in the flat panel display. Since 2005, he was employed at Ushio Korea, a leading light source and equipment company which plays an important role in the lithography supply chain.
While at Ushio, Jayden had responsibility for light sources and related equipment used in photo and deposition processes as well as FPD substrate cleaning.
Guillaume Chansin
Dr. Guillaume Chansin is a display analyst covering advanced and emerging display technologies. He has authored the display reports on XR and MicroLED displays. He is also a regular contributor to the Display Weekly Review Report. Guillaume has a Master’s degree in Applied Physics from INSA Toulouse and a PhD from Imperial College London.
