LCD TV Panel Prices Hit Bottom in Dec, Will Increase in Q1 2026
LCD TV panel prices hit a new post-pandemic low in December 2025, but prices are starting to stabilize and will be heading up in Q1 2026 as controlled supply outweighs stagnant demand.
After some positive demand signals in the first months of 2025, the global TV market has weakened. The Chinese Singles Day promotions on 11/11 had disappointing results, and the country’s market in general is facing tough times. The subsidy program, which boosted demand in Q1 2025, is now hurting demand, since the subsidy pulled forward some demand that would have happened in 2026. Black Friday promotions in the US showed very aggressive pricing on ultra-large sizes, which may have stimulated some demand, but at the cost of lower margins for the major TV set OEMs, which continue to be locked in fierce competition.
The main inflection point for prices in Q1 2026 concerns constrained supply. Panel makers wish to give prices a boost, so they will take advantage of the annual Lunar New Year holiday (which starts on February 17) to take an extended shutdown. This constraint in supply, coupled with the modest boost to demand due to the World Cup, which starts in mid-June, will be enough to support price increases in February and March.
The first chart here highlights our latest TV panel price update with a forecast through March 2026. Since the beginning of 2024, we have seen two mild rallies and two mild slumps, and the most recent slump brought prices to their lowest point since 2022.
On average, prices in December came in close to our expectations, but a few were higher. We expected prices to be flat MoM for the smallest screen sizes but decrease for larger sizes to as much as 1.2% for 85”. We were right about the small sizes, but the decreases were slightly milder for larger sizes than we expected. For January 2026, we expect prices for all screen sizes to be stable.
LCD TV Panel Prices, January 2024 – March 2026

Prices in Q3 2025 were lower sequentially by 4.3% on average, the largest QoQ decline since 2022, while Q4 2025 prices were down by another 3.9% on average.
As we look at pricing in terms of area, it has now been more than two years after the pandemic boom and bust that prices have stayed within a narrow range. In this period of stability, the products fall into three levels:
- The lowest-priced products are 32” and 43”, the most commoditized sizes. 32” panels seem to get a kick when prices increase, but then fall back when prices decline. These two products are efficient 18 cuts per substrate on Gen 8.5 (32”) and Gen 10.5 (43”). During the whole period from July 2023 to our forecast out to February 2026, the price of 43” panels has stayed between $118 and $129 per square meter. The 32” panel hit a new post-pandemic low of $113 per square meter in November but stabilized there in December and we expect it to increase starting in February.
- The mid-tier products are 49”/50”, 55” and 65”, with the largest size usually coming at the highest price. These sizes are also made efficiently on Gen 8.5 (49”/50” 8-up and 55” 6-up) and Gen 10.5 (65” 8-up). These panels have fluctuated between $139 and $167 per square meter and have fallen to the bottom of that range, but will go up in Q1 2026.
- The premium products are 75” and 85”. The 75” panel briefly fell to the mid-tier level in 2023 but appears to have regained a premium of ~$15 over the smaller sizes. The 85” panel has maintained a premium of $15-$20 per square meter over the 75” panel, and we expect that premium to continue. But the 85” price has stabilized at a new post-pandemic low of $168 per square meter.
Monthly Area Prices Per Square Meter for LCD TV Panels, January 2020 – March 2026

Our final chart in this sequence shows our LCD TV panel price index, taking a longer view from 2015 through January 2026. The price increases in Q1 2025 brought our index up to a peak of 44.8 in March 2025, not quite as high as the peak in 2024 but still 47% higher than the all-time low of September 2022. Q3 2025 prices stabilized at 42.5, but prices declined to 40.4 in December, the lowest point since May 2023. We see the index rising modestly to 41.7 in March 2026.
LCD TV Panel Price Index, January 2015 – March 2026

Following the grey area in the chart, we can see that the period from mid-2023 to today is radically different than the period from 2015 to 2023. We no longer have wild swings in prices. As of December 2025, our price index remained within a relatively tight range of 40.4 to 45.6 for 28 months, and although we see prices rising in Q1, it appears unlikely that they will break the upper end of that range.
Panel prices have been fluctuating around a level that allows the Chinese panel makers, with a cost advantage from government subsidies, to make a small profit, while Taiwanese panel makers come close to breakeven. The profitability of the Chinese panel makers will be tested in the fourth quarter, and will likely hit a cyclical low point, but with prices increasing in Q1 2026, profitability will improve.
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Author
Bob Obrien
Robert J (Bob) O’Brien joined Counterpoint Research as part of its acquisition of DSCC, where he was Co-Founder, Principal and CFO of DSCC. Bob has decades of experience turning market and business analysis into strategic insights in the display and electronics industries. At DSCC, Bob takes the lead role in analysis of display materials, including glass and AMOLED materials, and covers developments in TV and other large-screen display applications. He is the principal author of DSCC’s AMOLED Material Report, the Advanced TV Shipment Report, and the Display Glass Report, and Bob contributes regularly to the DSCC Weekly Review.
Yoshio Tamura
Yoshio Tamura joined Counterpoint Research following its acquisition of DSCC, where he served as Co-Founder and President of Asian Operations at DSCC (Display Supply Chain Consultants), based in Tokyo, Japan. He has more than 30 years of experience in display market research and consulting and is widely recognized as one of the leading authorities in the display industry. He began covering the display market in 1991 at TSR, where he significantly expanded the company’s research activities in this field. In 2000, he was invited to join DisplaySearch and was later promoted to Senior Vice President. Through his strong industry relationships, DisplaySearch expanded its presence across Asia by recruiting top talent in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China. In 2005, DisplaySearch became the world’s leading display research company and was acquired by NPD (USA). In 2014, NPD’s DisplaySearch business was acquired by IHS (UK). In October 2016, he co-founded DSCC. In August 2023, DSCC was acquired by Counterpoint Research. He can be reached at [email protected]