Overview:

• Following the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ discount regulations, the “two-year return” program has solidified its position as a mainstream purchasing model

• As the first wave of program users reaches maturity in 2026, replacement activity is expected to increase, and Docomo’s 3G shutdown may temporarily boost device upgrades.

• Despite short-term tailwinds, long-term recovery may be capped by Japan’s aging population, currency weakness, and inflation