Summary Bullets:

Global smartphone sell-through volumes are expected to decline 10% YoY in April 2026, falling to the market's lowest volumes since May 2020.
Most regions are now facing the brunt of price hikes, especially those exposed to lower price bands. Southeast Asian markets, India, and markets in Middle East & Africa are likely to record double-digit YoY declines in April.
Samsung's global sales are expected to decline 3% YoY in April 2026, despite the S26 series tracking 13% ahead of the S25 in key markets. Apple is likely to be the only top five brand to avoid a YoY decline in April.
Global smartphone ASPs are expected to grow ~14% YoY for the full year 2026, with shipments expected to decline ~14% YoY to their lowest levels since 2013.

As per Counterpoint’s latest Market Pulse (Early Look) report, global smartphone sell-through is expected to decline 10% Year-on-Year (YoY) in April 2026 – the lowest volumes since May 2020, when many regions were dealing with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most regions are now facing the brunt of the price hikes, especially regions exposed to lower price bands. Southeast Asian markets, India, and markets in Middle East & Africa are likely to record double-digit YoY declines in April. China (-11% YoY) and Europe (-8% YoY) are facing macroeconomic and device price-induced headwinds. North America, while less affected by the price hikes, is also expected to decline YoY in April because of a difficult comparison with April 2025, when demand was pulled forward due to tariffs. Japan and Korea are expected to be the only markets to record YoY growth in April.

In terms of brands, Samsung’s global sales are expected to decline 3% YoY in April 2026. While Samsung is projected to decline in April, its sales for the S-series launch period (launch month plus first full month of sales) are up 2.5% YoY, when comparing March-April 2026 with February-March 2025. The S26 series continues to outperform the S25 series in several key markets, especially the USA and Korea, with preliminary estimates suggesting a 13% YoY increase through the first six weeks of availability. Outside of the S-series, price increases and reduced discounts have been weighing on A-series demand across regions, especially India, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.

Apple is likely to be the only top five brand to record a YoY increase in April, with the iPhone 17 series remaining strong and the iPhone 17e performing well in its early weeks. Notably, Apple is expected to grow YoY across several key markets in April, including Korea, India, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa, driven by high promotional activity, expansion momentum, and strong iPhone 17 series demand.

Among other brands, Huawei is the only major Chinese brand to record YoY growth in April and is the fastest-growing top ten brand globally, leveraging its low-end Enjoy 90 series and its decision not to increase prices. HONOR is expected to see expansion-led growth and is likely to be among the few Android OEMs to record YoY gains in April.

Among brands likely to record YoY declines, Xiaomi, realme, and Transsion are facing steep sales declines across regions, with supply significantly reduced and device availability weakening across expansion markets; vivo and OPPO are both facing declines in expansion markets, as they scale back operations. Price increases and reduced discounts are the common driver of YoY weakness across declining brands.

Counterpoint Research Smartphone market growth by region year-over-year — Figure 1: Global Smartphone Market Sell-Through Volume Change Year-on-Year – April 2026 vs 2025; Preliminary Source: Counterpoint Research Market Pulse Midmonth (Early Look)

Regional Dynamics:

Smartphone sales in China are expected to decline 11% YoY in April 2026. Several major OEMs, including OPPO, vivo, HONOR, and Xiaomi, have raised prices on new and some older models, which has weighed on demand. Additionally, general consumer sentiment remains weak, despite the subsidies, as broader macroeconomic uncertainties and weak growth indicators persist. The post-promotional MoM decline (-16%) is particularly steep, exacerbated by the pricing environment. YTD, the China market is down 6% YoY.

Smartphone sales in the US are expected to decline 12% YoY in April 2026, largely due to a difficult base, as April 2025 saw a significant tariff-driven demand pull-forward. Promotional slowdowns and launch timing shifts are adding to the sequential drag, while persistent prepaid weakness continues to weigh on both Samsung and Apple.

India’s smartphone sales are likely to decline 17% YoY in April 2026, primarily due to continued smartphone price hikes driven by rising component costs and limited promotional activity. Consumer demand has remained soft as many buyers have postponed purchases in anticipation of upcoming “Summer Sale” offers. Higher spending on essentials, such as fuel and cooking gas, has reduced discretionary spending, impacting the mass market and mid-range segments. YTD, India is down 10% YoY.

South Korea is expected to grow 28% YoY in April 2026, one of only two markets globally to record YoY growth. The March Galaxy S26 launch concentrated replacement activity into a single, very strong month. April reflects a typical post-launch normalization, but underlying market demand remains noticeably firmer than a year ago. Samsung’s sell-through is expected to remain comfortably above last year’s April level, suggesting this year’s cS series cycle is healthier than last year. Korea is up 14% YTD, making it one of only two markets, alongside Japan, to record positive YTD growth in 2026. Japan’s smartphone market is expected to grow by low single digits YoY in April, driven by resilient upgrade demand and engineered replacement cycles, with Apple’s iPhone 17e also showing strong sales.

Smartphone sales in Western Europe are expected to decline 6% YoY in April 2026. Widespread economic uncertainty over the Middle East conflict continues to weigh heavily on consumers’ minds, with spiking fuel prices and a risk of inflation leading many to postpone purchases. Most new devices were also launched at a higher price compared to previous generations, with limited feature upgrades. Eastern Europe smartphone sales are expected to decline YoY in April. Eastern Europe’s market skews towards the lower-end, leaving it more exposed to price changes, a situation further compounded by spiking energy costs and inflation. YTD, the region is likely to be down 14% YoY.

Smartphone sales in the Asia-Pacific Others are expected to decline 14% YoY in April, as memory-driven cost inflation has become more visible in retail pricing. The premium segment remains most resilient, to the benefit of Apple and Samsung, while entry-level sentiment remains weak and vendor offerings are centered on affordable 5G and gaming-centric models. YTD, the region is expected to be down 13% YoY.

Counterpoint Research year-to-date smartphone market growth — Figure 2: Global Smartphone Market Sell-Through Volume Change Year-to-Date – January-April 2026 vs 2025; Preliminary Source: Counterpoint Research Market Pulse Midmonth (Early Look)

Latin America’s smartphone market is expected to decline 1% YoY in April. Reduced overall promotional activity compared to last year, strategic pullbacks from several Chinese OEMs amid the memory shortages, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties across the region are the key reasons. YTD, the region is likely to be down just 1% YoY.

Smartphone sales in the Middle East & Africa are expected to decline 13% YoY in April, largely due to demand pull-forward (into February–March) owing to the shift in Ramadan timing in the Middle East, and slowing demand due to price hikes in Africa. Notably, demand remains resilient, despite the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Despite the YoY weakness in April, the Middle East & Africa is among the better-performing regions in terms of YTD declines (January–April) at -4% YoY. Broader macroeconomic, technological, and socioeconomic trends like digitalization, 5G adoption, employment, infrastructure spending, and wage growth remain robust.

Global smartphone sell-through has remained below sell-in in 2026 so far, largely due to OEMs pushing shipments to get ahead of mounting costs from memory shortages and foreign exchange volatility. Consequently, global inventory levels have remained slightly elevated at 6–6.5 weeks, but this is a strategic decision rather than a miscalculation of the supply-demand balance. As component pricing is likely to remain volatile throughout 2026, we anticipate that OEMs will continue to flexibly manage their portfolios, including prioritizing key markets over non-core markets, optimizing toward margin-friendly models, and making component changes. We expect inventory levels to normalize in the coming months as supply becomes constrained due to the memory shortages, while demand moves through the usual promotional and launch cycles. For the full year, we expect shipments to decline ~14% YoY, falling below 1.1 billion units, the lowest annual shipments since 2013. The revenue decline (-1%) is not expected to be as severe, as ASPs grow ~14% YoY thanks to resilient mid-tier and premium price band demand.

Global Smartphone Sales Hit Lowest Levels Since COVID in April 2026

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