Counterpoint's Memory Tracker has gained traction with major suppliers across key global regions in three months after its launch. We anticipate a market adjustment between 2H26 and 1H27, despite a more optimistic Q2 2025 and upward revisions for 2025 projections, while noting increased market volatility driven by AI adoption, U.S. tariffs, export controls, and inventory dynamics.

Access to the full report here: Memory Solutions for Gen AI Part 18: Memory Tracker and Forecast Q2 2025

Supply normalization is underway, and market fragmentation could erode pricing power. Samsung’s DRAM bit growth dropped to 7% this year, though a rebound to 13% is projected for 2026. NAND follows a similar trajectory, with inventory shifts to customers stimulating the market. The high-speed requirement in HBM4 may imply fragmented market which dilutes the pricing power of leading suppliers.

Legacy DRAM and NAND saw a brief supply freeze, triggering price spikes. In smartphones, LPDDR4 remains critical for low-cost models, with elevated prices expected to persist through year-end. Yet, the resumed production may lead the alleviated pricing back to normal in 2026.

China’s memory sector, despite U.S. export controls, is gaining ground. CXMT and YMTC are advancing HKMG technology, while Chinese suppliers expand globally, more than what we previously assumed. Innovation is accelerating, with CXMT’s new Shanghai fabs prioritizing R&D over capacity. VCT(Vertical Channel Transistor), WoW(Wafer on Wafer), High speed IO products are on the way.

Geopolitical tensions remain a wild card. A temporary U.S.-China tariff waiver eased concerns, but risks tied to tech sanctions and regional instability persist. AI’s economic promise may be overstated, with potential drag on employment and consumption, at least in near future.

Smartphone memory trends show mixed signals. DRAM content is rising in mid-tier models, especially from Chinese OEMs, but NAND growth remains flat. AI phones cluster in the $600–$799 range, with China leading in DRAM density. NAND’s upside is limited, suggesting its current rally may be short-lived.

Author