Global Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicle penetration is expected to grow to 94% by 2035 from 65% in 2025, with penetration of autonomy Level 3 and above vehicles increasing to 24% by 2035, according to Counterpoint Research’s Global Autonomous Vehicle Forecast, Q2 2025. The surge in autonomous vehicles Level 3 and above will mainly be driven by rapid advances in technology and consumer demand for safety and convenience leading to a surge in both private vehicles and robotaxis, transforming how people move in urban environments.

Over the next decade, China is expected to remain the global epicenter of mobility innovation, balancing regulation and technology readiness in its path toward autonomous driving future. China’s automated and autonomous vehicles at Level 2 and above are expected to surpass 95% penetration by 2035. Higher levels of autonomy represented by L2+ (hand-free driving for highway and/or city assist driving) have quickly become mainstream and will maintain the lion’s share of the market up to 2035. Senior Analyst Mohit Sharma commented, “L2+ has become the real workhorse of intelligent driving in China, where OEMs are pushing L2+ technology for improved margins at minimal risk and consumers see value in features that improve everyday convenience and safety without the premium price tag.”

Global Level 3 and above Autonomous Vehicle Forecast by Key Region

Source: Counterpoint Research Global Autonomous Vehicles Forecast, Q2 2025

Chinese OEMs have long seen L2+ ADAS as a progressive path towards higher autonomy levels where the onus of risk lies with the driver. However, more recently, the central and local regulators are tightening rules following the much publicized Xiaomi car accident that led to three fatalities and subsequently a large-scale highway test revealing poor performance of Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, BYD, and Huawei. The draft safety rules for Level 2 driving assistance put restrictions on marketing language such as "autonomous" and "smart driving".

As a result the roll-out of higher levels of autonomy – Level 3 and 4 are expected to face regulatory caution, slowing the pace of autonomous vehicles in China. By 2030, just over 10% of vehicles are expected to feature Level 3 and above autonomy. According to Senior Analyst Murtuza Ali, “Regulation in China is clear – safety first, hype second”. However, China is making significant progress in commercial pilots for autonomous Level 4 fleets. Robotaxi services are scaling rapidly in test zones across Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The robotaxi fleet models are emerging as the proving ground for higher autonomy, helped by to controlled environments and strong government backing. The learnings, tests and validation of these fleets are expected to spill over into the private passenger cars space. Ali added, “China’s autonomy journey through 2035 will not be defined by a sudden leap. Rather, it will be a pragmatic, step-by-step process where consumers embrace the features that matter today, while robotaxi fleets pave the way for tomorrow’s breakthroughs.”

By 2030, China is set to stand at the forefront of the global autonomous vehicle industry through its ability to combine large-scale adoption of ADAS, strengthening regulatory oversight, and rapid scaling of commercial robotaxi fleets. While consumers in China are increasingly embracing advanced driver assistance (ADAS) as a standard feature, the country’s urban centers and pilot zones are becoming a hotbed for Level 4 robotaxi operations. This dual strategy of mass-market safety and affordability for private vehicles on one side and pioneering fleet autonomy through robotaxis on the other will reinforce China’s role as the pace-setter in shaping the future of mobility worldwide.

The comprehensive and in-depth report ‘Global Autonomous Vehicle Forecast, Q2 2025’ is now available for purchase at report.counterpointresearch.com
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