Global Foldable Smartphone Shipment Growth Rate, 2020-2027F

Foldables still account for only about 2% of the overall smartphone market, leaving plenty of room for the category to grow. Samsung continues to spearhead foldable innovation, while Huawei remains a key driver in China with a broad range of designs. Apple is poised to bring another wave of premium users into the segment with its upcoming foldable, while other brands are stepping up their efforts. Xiaomi is expected to launch the Xiaomi 18 Fold soon, while Motorola, HONOR, Google, vivo and OPPO are also working on new foldable products, including wider-format models.

This increased activity should help the market accelerate further in 2027, with global foldable shipments forecast to grow another 37% YoY next year. A full year of Apple sales will be a major driver, with Apple shipments expected to more than double and its share set to reach 40%. At the same time, the shift toward wider book-type designs will likely continue, supported by the strong early response to Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 and the momentum behind Huawei’s Pura X Max.

Research Director Tarun Pathak said, “Apple’s entry will surely increase competition at the premium end. However, foldables are still a very small part of the overall smartphone market, so there is room for the category to grow well beyond current volumes. Samsung continues to push innovation, Huawei remains strong in China, and we are seeing more OEMs prepare new designs and form factors. The broader participation is expected to help the market expand over the next few years.”

Apple’s entry will likely make an immediate impact. Counterpoint forecasts up to 6 million foldable iPhone shipments in 2026, giving Apple a 25% share of the global market and the No. 2 position, behind Samsung at 38% and ahead of Huawei at 22%. It will be significant for Apple to achieve this ranking so quickly after entering the category, particularly given the relatively short selling window expected this year.

Global Foldable Smartphone Shipment Share by OEM, 2026F

The early ramp is expected to be constrained more by supply than demand. Initial production volumes are expected to remain limited, meaning sales and deliveries are unlikely to reach full scale immediately after the expected product unveiling this week. Instead, availability is expected to expand gradually across regions as production ramps.

Commenting on Apple’s foldable launch, Associate Director Liz Lee said, “Initial supply for Apple’s first foldable iPhone will inevitably be limited during the early production ramp, which keeps the upper end of our 2026 shipment forecast at 6 million units. Even with the short selling window, we still expect Apple to take 25% of the global foldable market and directly move into the No.2 position. That would be a very strong start and shows the impact Apple can have on the category even before supply fully ramps up.”

For the foldable market, the true differentiator will lie in the user experience, which will help drive category expansion and the emergence of new use cases targeting larger consumer cohorts split between productivity and content consumption. Although price points remain 3x higher than those of traditional slab smartphones, mass-market adoption of foldables is still some years away.

About Counterpoint Research

Counterpoint Research is a global market research firm specializing in products across the technology ecosystem. We advise a diverse range of clients – from smartphone OEMs to chipmakers and channel players to Big Tech – through our offices located in the world's major innovation hubs, manufacturing clusters and commercial centers. Our analyst team, led by seasoned experts, engages with stakeholders across the enterprise – from the C-suite to professionals in strategy, analyst relations (AR), market intelligence (MI), business intelligence (BI), product and marketing – to deliver services spanning market data, industry thought leadership and consulting. Our core areas of coverage include AI, Automotive, Consumer Electronics, Displays, eSIM, IoT, Location Platforms, Macroeconomics, Manufacturing, Networks and Infrastructure, Semiconductors, Smartphones and Wearables. Visit our Insights page to explore our publicly available market data, insights and thought leadership, and to understand our focus, meet our analysts and start a conversation.

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