Overview:
The 2023 smartphone market is expected to fall 2% YoY, reaching 1.2 billion units as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector. The reasons for further lowering the forecast are as follows;
– Despite some recent recovery in macroeconomic indicators, consumer sentiment on the smartphone sector is still weak.
– The challenging atmosphere will reverse from Q3 2023, and we see the YoY growth for the second half of the year
– Consumer sentiment is expected to recover through H2 2023 accordingly. Headline inflation rates have eased across the developed world, setting central banks on a path to ease rate hikes.
This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2023-2027.
Table of Contents:
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Published Date: May 2023
Overview:
The global smartphone market remained under pressure in Q4 2022 with shipments declining by 19% YoY to the lowest level for a holiday quarter since 2013, even as it grew QoQ slightly to 302.6 million units. The cost-of-living crisis, labor market shortages, and a decline in consumers’ purchasing power resulted in double-digit declines YoY in the shipments of each of the top five smartphone players. The shipments for the full year 2022 also declined to 1.23 billion units, the lowest since 2013. The war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds kept the consumer sentiment weak in 2022 while smartphone users reduced the frequency of their purchases.
Apple was the only one that performed reasonably well in Q4 2022. Its share of iPhone shipments could have been even higher if not for the production issues caused by the COVID-19 breakout at the Zhengzhou factory, which produces the vast majority of Pro series volumes. Apple will continue to exceed the market expectation as the demand for high-end iPhones remains strong, as seen during the recent market contraction.
Foldable device forecast of Samsung for 2023 is lowered again. New foldable device launch at global market from Chinese OEM will have a negative effect to the sales number in the short term. But new product will help the market to grow eventually.
In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony – until Q4 2024 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.
Published Date: March 2023
Overview:
The 2023 smartphone market is expected to be similar to 2022, reaching around 1.23 billion units. As macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector, the smartphone market is expected to continue underperforming through H1 2023 and only start to grow from Q3 2023. This report provides the smartphone/feature phone market forecast by region and brand for 2023-2026.
Table of Contents:
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Number of Pages: 16
Published Date: February 2023
Overview:
The global smartphone market declined by 12% YoY despite growing by 3% QoQ to 301.9 million units in Q3 2022. While quarterly growth in Apple and Samsung pushed the global smartphone market above 300 million units, a level it failed to reach last quarter, political and economic instability drove negative consumer sentiment. Accordingly, the annual smartphone shipment volume is estimated to be 1.24 billion units in 2022, down 11% YoY, with shrinking demand amid rising global uncertainties.
The 2023 smartphone market is expected to be of a similar scale as this year; reaching around 1.26 billion units. As macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector, the smartphone market is expected to continue underperforming through H1 2023 and only start to grow from Q3 2023. Persistent inflation, expectations of future interest rate hikes, souring corporate earnings, China’s stalled economy, the protracted Ukraine-Russia war, political turmoil in Europe, and a sweeping new set of export controls on China from the US, all contributes to the downward adjustment of the smartphone market forecast. OEMs focusing on the premium segment, which is more resilient than the low to mid-end, are better positioned to deal with these issues, with deep technological expertise and diversified businesses capable of weathering the storm.
In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs until Q4 2023 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.
Published Date: December 2022
Overview:
The 2023 smartphone market is expected to be of a similar scale as this year; reaching around 1.26 bilion units. As macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continue to pressure the tech sector, the smartphone market is expected to continue underperforming through H1 2023 and only starting to grow from Q3 2023.
This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2022-2026.
Table of Contents:
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definations
Number of Pages: 12
Published Date: November 2022
Overview:
The annual smartphone shipment volume is estimated to be 1.3 billion units in 2022, down 6% YoY, with shrinking demand amid the rising global uncertainties. A loweing of our evaluation of the global economy following a weaker growth outlook and stronger than expected central bank actions to combat inflation. We now believe a recession is very likely in late 2022 into 2023.
In addition, there appears to be no end in sight to the Ukraine war, and weakening supplies of grains and fuels could cause new diplomatic rows between nations. So, we now expect the elevated commodity prices to continue to damage the global supply chain, while weakening consumer demand for tech products may lead to a supply glut in semiconductors and tech components.
Due to the prolonged lockdown and economic downturn in China, this unfavorable market situation is particularly affecting Chinese OEMs, and the sales proportion of existing high-end models is highly likely to decrease. Nevertheless, the foldable smartphones are attracting consumers with new form factors, so a high growth is expected over 2022-2023.
In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs until Q4 2023 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.
Published Date: September 2022
Overview:
The annual smartphone shipment volume is estimated to be 1.3 billion units in 2022, down 6% YoY, with shrinking demand amid the rising global uncertainties. The reasons for further lowering the forecast are as follows;
- A loweing of our evaluation of the global economy following a weaker growth outlook and stronger than expected central bank actions to combat inflation. We now believe a recession is very likely in late 2022 into 2023.
- There appears to be no end in sight to the Ukraine war, and weakening supplies of grains and fuels could cause new diplomatic rows between nations.
- We now expect the elevated commodity prices to continue to damage the global supply chain, while weakening consumer demand for tech products may lead to a supply glut in semiconductors and tech components.
This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2022-2026.
Table of Contents:
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Number of Pages: 12
Published Date: August 2022
Overview:
In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs until Q4 2023 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.
The global smartphone market declined by 8% YoY in Q1 2022, shipping 326 million units. The ongoing component shortages and COVID-19 resurgence caused the decline at the beginning of the quarter while the Russia-Ukraine war did it towards the end. But the market presented a mixed bag in Q1 2022.
Samsung and Apple's higher-than-expected growth in shipments showed that the two brands had managed to overcome the component shortages that hit their supplies last year. Samsung was able to exceed 6mn foldable phone shipments in 2021. Thanks to increased production of foldable panel and increased interest from consumers, we expect that Samsung will achieve 12.9mn of foldable device shipment in 2022, more than 65% YoY increase. Apple continued to exceed the market expectation as the demand for the iPhone 13 series remained strong in Q1 2022. However, its expectation for Q2 should be low due to the weaker sales of the iPhone SE than initially expected and component constraints.
Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs such as Xiaomi, OPPO (+OnePlus) and vivo faced a greater component supply crunch, resulting in their shipments falling by 20%, 24% and 29% YoY, respectively. We expect this sluggish performance of Chinese OEMs to continue into the second half of the year due to China's economic slowdown resulting from more transmissible COVID-19 variants and 'zero-COVID' policies. In result, we currently lowered the shipment forecasts for major Chinese OEMs and correspondingly, we also made downward adjustment for shipment forecasts for many of their models in this update.
Published Date: June 2022
Overview:
We expect the 2022 smartphone market to decline 3% to 1,357 million units from last year's. On the macroeconomic front, expectations for recovery are now sharply falling and more concerns are spreading centered on China's prolonged recession and the Ukraine crisis. By such pushes that make the world economy deeper into a slowdown, this year's smartphone market is expected to contract unavoidably.
Among the factors likely to influence the market in 2022, we consider the following to be the most critical:
- The continued impact on smartphone OEMs due to the shortage of some components.
- China's economic slowdown resulting from more transmissible COVID-19 variants and "zero-COVID" policies.
- Uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russia war.
- Global financial pressures, including inflation and possible recession.
This report provides the global mobile handset/smartphone market forecast by region and brand for 2022-2026.
Table of Contents:
- Track Changes – Smartphone
- Assumptions
- Pivot
- Tech Pivot
- Global
- North America
- Caribbean & Latin America
- Middle East & Africa
- Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
- Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
- Flatfile
- Definitions
Number of Pages: 12
Published Date: May 2022
