Service: Market Outlook

Overview:

In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.

Apple released four variants Q3 2021, as in the previous year and the proportion of sales by model is similar to the previous year. They will teminate the Mini variant from 2022 onward. Instead, it will show two variants each for 6.1" and 6.7" screen sizes, with a total of four new models expected to launch in the third quarter of 2022. While maintaining its premium brand image, Apple is expected to continue its efforts to diversify its lineup of new models and to cover a wider price range by using older models. This could contribute to increasing brand share in emerging markets such as SEA, Latam, and MEA.

The S22 series was launched about a month later than the S21. The most premium variant in the series, the S22 Ultra, will encourage existing Note users to replace their devices thanks to the S Pen, and accordingly, the proportion of sales in the series is expected to be larger than in previous years , especially at the beginning of its release. In 2023, its proportion will decrease slightly and the standard model, S22, will occupy the majority again.

Xiaomi increased shipments to strengthen mid-high during 2021, but demand fell short of it. In 2022, it is expected that they will temporarily put their high-end strengthening strategy on hold and turn to the mid-low side to focus on maintaining volume and market share.

Published Date: March 2022

Overview:

When forecasting the smartphone market, we aim for a balanced forecast. This is where there is a roughly equal probability that the next change we make to the market size will be either up or down. Through many years of forecasting this market, we have observed that rarely all of the bad things that can possibly happen, do happen. Similarly, rarely all of the positive things that can happen do happen. Typically we see a pattern of some good and some bad things. In the current environment, it can be hard to find the positives, but they are out there. Looking into 2022, the market remains volatile. There are several factors that are likely to continue to weigh on the market. We will therefore be updating the headline forecast more frequently as we come to better understand the full ramifications of further blows to stable market conditions that we had come to expect in the period pre-2020.

The global smartphone market in 2021 was 1,392 m units, an annual growth rate of 4.5%.. Despite pent-up demand for smartphones, 2021 was still lower than expected growth rate, mainly due to a re-emergence of COVID-19 mutations, a shortage of key semiconductor components and a continued sluggishness in the China market.

Among the clear and concerning factors likely to influence the market in 2022, we consider the following to be most critical factors in 2022:;

• The continued impact on smartphone OEMs due to the shortage of some components.
• The impact of the omicron (and potentially other) variants and the response of governments – especially China – as they deal with fast-moving outbreaks. .
• The spread of market uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russia crisis. 
• Global financial pressures including inflation, and possibly recession.
• China has not recovered to the same level it was pre-pandemic. We must determine the new base level for China’s smartphone market.

Published Date: March 2022

Overview:

In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.

Apple has limited initial supply of the 13 series due to semiconductor component supply constraints in the second half of 2021, and we have seen longer-than-normal waiting periods in its key regions. In 2H 2022, if semiconductor supply issues ease, and the new models are released on time in September 2022, its shipments are expected to be higher than that of its predecessor.

Samsung's shipment growth will mainly come from low- to mid-tier models such as the A-series and M-series, as sales in emerging markets that will drive the future growth of the smartphone market will increase.

In the face of continued semiconductor supply constraints, Xiaomi seems to be having more difficulty responding than its competitors because it is focused on mid- to low-priced products, resulting in low margins and difficult to secure inventory from component suppliers with short lead times. Although mid-single-digit growth is expected in 2022, it still appears to be a high-risk situation.

Published Date: December 2021

Overview:

The global smartphone market in 2021 is expected to show 1,392 m units, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the September FCST. The decline in 2021 earnings is mainly due to the sluggish 3Q earnings in Europe and Southeast Asia markets due to the re-spreading of Covid19 strains. In addition, while the overall global parts shortage is likely to continue in the fourth quarter, we expect this shortage to be a limiting factor for the market growth.

The global smartphone market in 2022 is expected to be 1,492 m units, expected to show a decrease of about 1.2% compared to the FCST in September.

In the first half of 2022, the smartphone market will continue to move sideways due to the continued spread of Covid-19 variants and the shortage of components. However, sales volume is likely to increase in the second half of the year mainly due to escaping the Covid-19 impact zone due to the Covid-19 treatment and partially resolving the shortage of components. However, the possibility of new variants related to COVID-19 makes market uncertainty.

We consider the most critical factors in 2021 and 2022 as below;

• The full-fledged impact on smartphone OEMs due to the deepening of the component shortage.
• The continuity of supply chain issues for smartphone parts.
• The sluggish recovery in the Chinese smartphone market will be continuous in 2022.
• Gap in recovery rate between developed and developing countries after COVID-19.

Published Date: December 2021

Overview:

In this report, we forecast the shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs and it focuses on giving a detailed view of quarterly flagship shipments globally.

We expect Apple's volume growth to come gradually from older models rather than newly launched ones. This is because the sales proportion of older models with relatively low prices is high in emerging countries such as India, Latin America, MEA, and SEA.

In order to preoccupy the foldable phone market, Samsung lowered its price to an attractive level and conducted strong promotions with mobile carriers in major markets including North America. We expect that Samsung will be able to reach at least 7M foldable phone shipments this year.

Published Date: September 2021

Overview:

The global smartphone market in 2021 started very strongly as Q1 2021 recorded 20% YoY growth. This performance continued in the second quarter, and despite the re-emergence of the coronavirus in the second quarter, the smartphone market showed a sales volume of 323.1 m units, an increase of 17.1% compared to the previous year.

However, this increase is unlikely to continue in the second half of 2021. We are reducing our annual smartphone shipments in 2021 to 1,414 m units. This change is mainly due to:

1. The full-fledged impact on smartphone OEMs due to the deepening of the component shortage,
2. The expected decline in shipments in some regions such as Asia Pacific and others due to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic,
3. Signs of a sluggish recovery in the Chinese smartphone market.

Published Date: September 2021

Overview: 
The global smartphone market in 2021 started very strongly as Q1 2021 recorded 20% YoY growth. This first quarter bettered shipments from Q1 2019 and Q1 2020.
Significant factors leading the smartphone market in 2021 are; the global spread of 5G devices, the demand shift to 2021 that had reduced due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the increase in demand for smartphones due to the recovery of the global economy along with Feature phone users' smartphone conversion inflow. 
Published Date: June 2021