Service: Market Outlook

Global Mobile Handset & Smartphone Shipments Forecast By OEM

This report contains historic mobile device data up to the third quater of 2013. The data is extrapolated to produce a forecast up to the end of 2016.

 

Table of Contents

 1. Contents
 2. Market Outlook Pivot Tablet
 3. Global Handset Volume By Vendor 
 4. Region Handset Volume By Vendor 
 5. Global Handset Value By Vendor 
 6. Global Smartphone Volume By Vendor 
 7. Global Smartphone Volume By OS
 8. Region Smartphone Volume By Vendor
 9. Global Feature Phone Volume By Vendor
10. Region Feature Phone Volume By Vendor
11. Definitions
12. Contacts

 

Counterpoint’s Market Outlook provides short and long range forecasts of the total addressable market size in both volume and value. In this report we provide vendor level shares, by quarter for 2014, and 2015, and in this round we are including 2016. The basis for the forecast is the actual performance achieved by the various handset vendors through 3Q 2014. The metric is volume of product sold in to the channels, which does not necessarily equal the volume purchased by the final consumer. We then project forward based on a mix of trend, and portfolio analysis – based on announced and expected product launches, and other market intelligence we gather in our broader analysis of the handset market. This report can be read in conjunction with our excel-based analysis.

Tablet of Contents

– Background
– Analysis
– Vendor Dynamics – Ending of a reign
  Apple the crowned queen
  Samsung, fading beauty
  Past queens
  Regional queens
 Special award winners, Miss Photogenic, Miss Congeniality
– Competing Ecosystems
– Bottom Line

 

 

* This report complements the Excel based Mobile Device Forecast based on Q1 2014 results.

Background:
Counterpoint’s Market Outlook provides short and long range forecasts of the total addressable market size in both volume and value. In this report we provide vendor level shares, by quarter for 2014 and 2015. The basis for the forecast is the actual performance achieved by the various handset vendors through 1Q 2014. The metric is volume of product sold in to the channels, which does not necessarily equal the volume purchased by the final consumer. We then project forward based on a mix of trend analysis, portfolio analysis – based on announced and expected product launches, and other market intelligence we gather in our broader analysis of the handset market. This report can be read in conjunction with our excel-based analysis.

Analysis:
The Market – Headwinds to come
2014 and 2015 will likely represent a significant shift in the development of the mobile handset market. Fast growth markets are starting to saturate – though there is still growth to come. The dramatic migration from feature phones to smartphones, which has largely run its course in developed markets, will continue to drive smartphone volumes across the next 18 months. But even smartphone growth is starting to moderate. Where 2013 represented over 40% year on year growth in smartphones. 2014 will be nearer 20% year on year growth, while we expect 2015 to be around 15% larger than 2014.
Given the fast decline in feature phone sales, the overall market will likely record a tepid low single digit growth rate of just 3% in 2014 and the same in 2015…

Global Mobile Handset & Smartphone Shipments Forecast up to 2015

This report contains historic mobile device data up to the first quarter of 2014. 
The data is extrapolated to produce a forecast up to the end of 2015 for each major smartphone brand.

 

<Table of Contents >

 1. Contents
 2. Market Outlook Pivot Tablet
 3. Global Handset Volume By Vendor 
 4. Region Handset Volume By Vendor 
 5. Global Handset Value By Vendor 
 6. Global Smartphone Volume By Vendor 
 7. Global Smartphone Volume By OS
 8. Region Smartphone Volume By Vendor
 9. Global Feature Phone Volume By Vendor
10. Region Feature Phone Volume By Vendor
11. Definitions
12. Contacts

The mobile device market will grow steadily but unspectacularly over the next few years. 
we forecast that over 2 billion handsets will be shipped in 2015, just nine years after the industry surpassed the 1 billion annual shipment mark. Emerging economies remain the engine of shipment volume growth.
4G LTE transition will be a key market driver through over the next few years with China the principal catalyst.
Smartphones are rapidly eclipsing feature phones. Feature phones are currently the mainstay of the Ultra Low Cost Handset (ULCH) market but in price bands above US$70 low cost Android products are becoming dominant. However by 2016 the price distribution of smartphones will start to resemble that of feature phones in 2008/9.

The topline growth hides significant underlying dynamics however as rapid smartphone adoption and the roll out of 4G LTE will create significant opportunities. However the market continues to be characterized by aggressive pricing and hardware commoditization which makes creating sustainable differentiation challenging.

 

< Table of Contents >

√  Key Takeaways

√  Global Handset Forecast
    – Drivers and Trends
    – Market Overview – volume and value
    – Price Segment Analysis

√  Regional Handset Forecast
    1) North America
    2) Latin America
    3) Europe
    4) MEA
    5) Asia
       – China 
       – India

Mobile Devices and Smartphone Forecast up to 2015

This report contains historic mobile device data up to the second quater of 2013. 
The data is extrapolated to produce a forecast up to the end of 2015.

 

<Table of Contents >

1. Contents
2. Market Outlook Pivot
3. Global Handset Volume By Vendor 
4. Region Handset Volume By Vendor 
5. Global Handset Value By Vendor 
6. Global Smartphone Volume By Vendor 
7. Global Smartphone Volume By OS
8. Region Smartphone Volume By Vendor
9. Definitions
10. Contacts

Mobile Devices and Smartphone Forecast up to 2015

This report contains mobile device data up to the first quarter of 2013.
The shipments of major vendors for handsets, smartphones and tablets are gathered at the global level.
The data is extrapolated to produce a forecast up to the end of 2015.

 

<Table of Contents >

 1. Contents
 2. Mobile Handsets – Global Volume by Vendor
 3. Mobile Handsets – Global Value by Vendor
 4. Mobile Handsets – Global by Region
 5. Mobile Handsets – Region by Vendor
 6. Smartphones – Global by Vendor
 7. Smartphones – Global by Region
 8. Smartphones – Region by Vendor
 9. Definitions
10. Contacts

To recap 2012, we can probably say it was the Year of Apple vs. Samsung.
Apple shows chinks in the armor and Samsung takes advantage.
Android showed huge dominance and tablets continued to grow silently in the background.

Predictions on the other hand are notoriously difficult. As the physicist Niels Bohr once wisely said,
‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’ Nevertheless, it is what we are paid to do, so we’ve put our heads together and generated a number of predictions regarding 2013 – some will stray into 2014 and even 2015 – however our focus is really about the grappling with what we expect to transpire this year. 

The technology industry in which mobile communications has become deeply interwoven moves massively quickly – a glance back at who led the market 4 or 5 years ago looks dramatically different than the picture we see today. In no other industry can huge fortunes change so rapidly and fundamentally; what looks like solid ground can be overturned with astonishing speed – just ask Nokia!

We have attempted to be somewhat provocative in our predictions while maintaining a rational approach – essentially the majority of developments in 2013 should already be visible or the major thematics well understood.

Rather than trying to cover a wide swathe of the industry we’ve instead focused on a few core areas and provide a series of related predictions that we think will provide some of the most significant talking points of 2013 and will likely be themes that we return to during the year. These are grouped around two topics:

Ecosystems
Devices, hardware and connectivity

* Ecosystems in 2013

• Android star turns dark: 
• While maintaining its global market share lead in 2013 we predict the ecosystem will be increasingly under attack from emergent competitive ecosystems
• Samsung drives Tizen success
• Emergent OS platforms drive user experience innovation
• Windows 8 fails in PC, Windows Phone 8 surprises

* Devices and Hardware Connectivity in 2013

• Samsung consolidates market share gains
• Nokia consolidates market share losses
• Apple iPhone share peaks in 2013
• White box Tablets will drive massive growth in Android Tablets
• 2013 the year of the screen
• An increasing array of connected or connectable devices will come to market in 2013
• We believe at least one operator will announce the first ‘commercial’ LTE Advanced
• While 4G makes its presence felt worldwide, WiFi will continue to play a significant role