Overview:
The Counterpoint Macro Index, which tracks the global technology environment, decreased marginally to 76.55 in February from 76.91 in January. The improvement in macroeconomic indicators was offset by the negative effect of domestic politics in the US and China, as well as international politics.
Table of Contents:
- Counterpoint Macro Index, January 2023 – Overview
- Risk-Impact Map, January 2023
- Scenario Analysis
- Regional Comparison, February 2023
- Constituent Indices
- Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 18
Published Date: March 2023
Overview
The Counterpoint Macro Index improved slightly to nearly 77 points in January from 76.26 points in December 2022. Although global economic growth is still projected to fall in 2023 relative to 2022, major downside risks have moderated in January, reflected particularly in the resilient US and European economies in Q4 2022 and the faster-than-expected recovery in China. However, other risk factors continue to weigh on our macro readings significantly, including the prolonged Russia[1]Ukraine war, rising interest rates to rein in inflation and layoffs at technology companies.
Table of Contents
- Counterpoint Macro Index, January 2023 – Overview
- Risk-Impact Map, January 2023
- Scenario Analysis
- Constituent Indices
- Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 16
Publication Date: February 2023
Overview
The Counterpoint Macro Index, which tracks the global technology environment, improved in December, rising to 77.56. This was just the second month-on-month rise in the index during 2022. Much of the rise in our index can be attributed to China’s faster-than-anticipated turn from its “COVID-Zero” policy. In addition, tamer inflation rate readings in US and Europe is expected to allow central banks room to taper down rate hikes, thus improving economic outlook.
Table of Contents
- Counterpoint Macro Index December 2022 – Overview
- Risk-Impact Map – December 2022
- Scenario Analysis
- Constituent Indices
- Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement, and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 16
Publication Date: January 2023
Overview
2022 brought us a reversal of human development due to war, inflation, energy crisis, a lingering pandemic, simmering geopolitical tensions, as well as longer-term challenges like the retreat of globalization, climate change, cybersecurity and the role of Big Tech in society. In this report, Counterpoint analysts rate the top 10 macro risks for the technology world to watch out for in 2023. They explore these risks in depth by briefly reviewing each’s development in 2022, where it stands at the moment and the most likely trajectory in 2023.
Table of Contents
- Preface
- Year in Review – 2022
- Risk-Impact Chart – 2022 Year-end Edition
- Top 10 Macro Risks for Tech World in 2023
- 1. Economic Recession (Average Score 71.41)
- 2. US vs China Rivalry (Average Score 63.14)
- 3. Energy Crisis (Average Score 58.43)
- 4. Emerging Markets Pain (Average Score 58.27)
- 5. Tech Earnings Retreat (Average Score 57.22)
- 6. China’s Disorganized Withdrawal from COVID-Zero (Average Score 56.98)
- 7. China’s Long-Term Economic Stagnation (Average Score 52.78)
- 8. Cybersecurity (Average Score 51.65)
- 9. Supply Chain ‘Reshoring’ Not Living Up to Expectations (Average Score 47.55)
- 10. Climate Change (Average Score 45.14)
- Postface
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 42
Publication Date: January 2023
Overview:
The Counterpoint Macro Index, which tracks the global technology environment, remained flat in November at a depressed level of 75.08. Poor outlook from tech firms dominated the headlines, but there were better developments on the political front.
Table of Contents:
- Counterpoint Macro Index November 2022 – Overview
- Risk & Impact Map – November 2022
- Scenario Analysis
- Constituent Indices
- Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement, and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 14
Published Date: December 2022
Overview:
The Counterpoint Macro Index aims to capture the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry. We look at issues and measures in macroeconomics, domestic and international politics, supply chains, industry performance and outlook, and regulatory events and outlook.
The October 2022 Counterpoint Macro Index saw a reading of 75.28, down compared to September. Ongoing inflation, deteriorating political conditions in Europe, and poor financial results for technology firms all contributed to the slide. But there are some signs that the macroeconomic environment may improve in the coming months.
Table of Contents:
- Counterpoint Macro Index October – Overview
- Risk & Impact Chart
- Scenario Analysis
- Constituent Indices
- Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement, and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 14
Published Date: November 2022
Overview:
Q3 2022 was a momentous period in the global tech environment. Our Macro team has deep-dived into a number of important topics including US policy landscape entering the mid-term elections season, China manufacturing updates, India tech device manufacturing updates, the latest scenes from the PC market and the Europe energy crisis.
Table of Contents:
- Featured Topic 1 – US Policy Update
- Featured Topic 2 – China’s Tech Manufacturing Landscape
- Featured Topic 3 – India Smartphone Market Conditions, and ‘Make in India’ Update
- Featured Topic 4 – Global PC Market Landscape
- Featured Topic 5 – Energy Supply and EV Transition in Europe
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement, and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 90
Published Date: November 2022
Overview:
The Counterpoint Macro Index aims to capture the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry. We look at issues and measures in macroeconomics, domestic and international politics, supply chains, industry performance and outlook, and regulatory events and outlook.
In September, the Counterpoint Macro Index, which tracks the global technology environment, dropped significantly to 78.07 in September from 82.86 in June. The fast drop in index in September and Q3 was primarily due to the worsening sub-indices of Policy, Market, and Global Environment.
Table of Contents:
- Counterpoint Macro Index Q3 2022 – Overview
- Risk & Impact Chart
- Scenario Analysis
- Constituent Indices
- Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
- Authors, Copyright, User Agreement, and Other General Information
Number of Pages: 18
Published Date: October 2022
Overview:
The Counterpoint Macro Index aims to capture the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry. We look at issues and measures in macroeconomics, domestic and international politics, supply chains, industry performance and outlook, and regulatory events and outlook.
The August 2022 Counterpoint Macro Index saw a reading of 84.58, flat compared to July. International politics continued to be the primary driver of negativity, though Russia's stalled advance and easing tensions following Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan led to some improvement. Macro-economics was the second driver of negativity as persistent inflation drives central bank resolve to hike interest rates further.
Table of Contents:
- Counterpoint Macro Index August 2022 – Overview
- Risk & Impact Chart
- Scenario Analysis
- Constituent Indices
- Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
Number of Pages: 15
Published Date: September 2022
