Service: Macro and geo-political tracker

Overview:

Counterpoint’s Macro Index rose to over 77 in March 2023, from 76.25 in February, despite ongoing challenges to the global economy and politics.

Over the course of Q1 2023, the Index shifted sideways within a thin range. However, the underlying factors moved substantially: consumer and business sentiment rebounded globally, tech sentiment retreated a little, but politics and policy-related factors deteriorated sharply. This is the first QoQ rise in the Index in over a year, though conditions are still uncertain and remain decisively in negative territory.

Significant progress has been made towards reining in inflation in the developed world, but the corporate outlook fell considerably due to turmoil in the financial markets. Global politics remain the primary drag on the index as War in Ukraine drags on and US-China tech war escalates.

Macro conditions are worse than what was initially forecast in our Q4 2022 update. As a result, the V-shaped rebound is gradually turning into an L-shaped grind.

Table of Contents:

1. Counterpoint Macro Index, March 2023

2. Q1 2023 Summary

3. Key Movers

4. Risk-Impact Map

4. Scenario Analysis

5. US Update

6. China Update

7. Europe Update

8. Consumer Sentiment

9. General Business Sentiment

10. Tech Business Sentiment

11. Policy, Market and Global Environment

Number of Pages: 35

Publication Date: April 2023

Overview

This new report series provides an overview of the key headlines impacting the tech and business sectors over the past month, and likely short to medium term trajectory of how events may fold.  The key issues covered in our inaugural report include: US CHIPS Act, China’s ‘Two Sessions’, US Inflation Reduction Act, Banking Crisis, Meta, Foxconn and Adani Group.

Table of Contents

• US CHIPS Act Update
• China’s ‘Two Sessions’
• US Inflation Reduction Act and EV Manufacturing Update
• Silicon Valley Bank and Banking Crisis
• Meta’s Troubles and Layoffs
• Foxconn’s Second Factory in India
• Adani Group Debt Crisis

Number of Pages: 45

Publication Date: April 2023

Overview:

The report has summarized the important policies announced during the National People’s Congress session in 2023 and analyzed how they are going to affect the technology businesses and the industry.  

Table of Contents:

• Overview
• Economy
• Boosting Technology Self-reliance
• Restructuring Government Institutions
• Diplomacy: Back to World

Number of Pages: 29

Published Date: March 2023

Overview:

The Counterpoint Macro Index, which tracks the global technology environment, decreased marginally to 76.55 in February from 76.91 in January. The improvement in macroeconomic indicators was offset by the negative effect of domestic politics in the US and China, as well as international politics.

Table of Contents: 

• Counterpoint Macro Index, January 2023 – Overview
• Risk-Impact Map, January 2023
• Scenario Analysis
• Regional Comparison, February 2023
• Constituent Indices
• Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
• Authors, Copyright, User Agreement and Other General Information

Number of Pages: 18

Published Date: March 2023

Overview

The Counterpoint Macro Index improved slightly to nearly 77 points in January from 76.26 points in December 2022. Although global economic growth is still projected to fall in 2023 relative to 2022, major downside risks have moderated in January, reflected particularly in the resilient US and European economies in Q4 2022 and the faster-than-expected recovery in China. However, other risk factors continue to weigh on our macro readings significantly, including the prolonged Russia[1]Ukraine war, rising interest rates to rein in inflation and layoffs at technology companies. 

Table of Contents

• Counterpoint Macro Index, January 2023 – Overview
• Risk-Impact Map, January 2023
• Scenario Analysis
• Constituent Indices
• Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
• Authors, Copyright, User Agreement and Other General Information

Number of Pages: 16

Publication Date: February 2023

Overview

The Counterpoint Macro Index, which tracks the global technology environment, improved in December, rising to 77.56. This was just the second month-on-month rise in the index during 2022.  Much of the rise in our index can be attributed to China’s faster-than-anticipated turn from its “COVID-Zero” policy. In addition, tamer inflation rate readings in US and Europe is expected to allow central banks room to taper down rate hikes, thus improving economic outlook.

Table of Contents

• Counterpoint Macro Index December 2022 – Overview
• Risk-Impact Map – December 2022
• Scenario Analysis
• Constituent Indices
• Explaining the Counterpoint Macro Index
• Authors, Copyright, User Agreement, and Other General Information

Number of Pages: 16

Publication Date: January 2023