Overview:
Counterpoint's Macro Index rose to 80.05 in July from 79.53 in June, driven by robust economic data in the US and Europe, which fostered hopes of a soft landing for the global economy. The tech supply chain was the other contributing factor, particularly on the semiconductor front, as the downturn may finally show signs of reversing.
Global economic indicators remained robust in the US and Europe, as consumer and business confidence continued to rise, accompanied by easing inflation. However, China's economy began to exhibit signs of a potential recession.
On domestic politics and policy, there was a slight dip in various regions, including the US, as partisan politics remained tense while the Federal Reserve persisted in its interest rate hikes to stabilize inflation expectations. Several European countries, including France, the Netherlands, Spain and Greece, grappled with internal political uncertainties. In an attempt to bolster its economy, China released numerous policy documents aimed at stimulating the market, though these received lukewarm support as many await more substantial measures.
There were several improvements in international politics in July. US-China relations seemed to have progressed past the “balloon-gate” incident, with working-level officials re-establishing contact. While NATO refrained from extending membership to Ukraine to avoid provoking Russia, it did reaffirm security guarantees to the former.
The AI fervor in the Global Tech sector persisted in July, as additional companies, including Meta and Apple, unveiled their AI-related initiatives. Tepid demand is expected for tech products in the upcoming quarters. However, the supply chain, particularly in semiconductors, are showing signs of a rebound.
Table of Contents
- Counterpoint Macro Index, July 2023
- Overview
- July 2023 Summary
- Risk-Impact Map
- Scenario Analysis
- Regional Analysis
- Constituent Indices
- Contacts
Number of Pages: 34
Publication Date: August 2023
