Global foldable smartphone shipments are projected to reach 101.5 million in 2027 from 78.6 million in 2026.
Samsung and Apple are expected to dominate the market.
Regional drivers, especially in China, combined with growing consumer willingness to buy foldables will help keep shipment growth buoyant.
Seoul, Boston, Beijing, Hong Kong, New Delhi, London – July 26, 2023
Global foldable smartphone shipments are expected to pass the 100-million mark by 2027, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Foldable Smartphone Tracker and Forecast, with Samsung and Apple accounting for the biggest market share.
Global Foldable Smartphone Shipment Forecast by Brand & Foldable Share In Premium Segment, 2021-2027(E)*
*Premium segment considered to be above $600 average wholesale price
Commenting on growth expectations, Research Director Tom Kang said, “At the moment, foldables remain niche. But it is an important segment for brands looking to maintain leadership in innovation and a premium market presence.”
Kang added, “Samsung and the Chinese OEMs have been very active, especially in their home markets, with China emerging as the biggest market globally last year. If you want to make it in foldables, you have to make it there.”
Senior Analyst Jene Park said, “In the long term, we are waiting to see what Apple does. We are looking at 2025 as the possible year of iPhone’s foldable debut, which could provide another growth spurt for the segment.”
Park added, “When we look at the current consumer response, our latest Global Foldable Smartphone Preference Survey shows a willingness to purchase for the majority of respondents, most notably among current users. This is a good sign and tells us the hype around foldables is legitimate.”
Global Foldable Smartphone Survey, 2023
Question: Are you willing to purchase a foldable phone as your next device?
Source: Counterpoint Research Global Foldable Smartphone Preference Survey, 2023 Notes: N=1,000 per country across US, China, South Korea; Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
The global smartphone market declined by 18% YoY to reach 304 million units in Q4 2022.
Apple replaced Samsung as the top smartphone player in Q4 2022, driven by the recent launch of the iPhone 14 series.
The 2022 global shipments declined by 12% to 1.2 billion units, the lowest since 2013.
Global smartphone revenue declined by 9% to $409 billion, the lowest since 2017.
Apple achieved its highest-ever global smartphone shipment, revenue and operating profit share in 2022.
London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, Beijing, Denver, Buenos Aires – February 3, 2023
The global smartphone market remained under pressure in Q4 2022 with shipments declining by 18% YoY to the lowest level for a holiday quarter since 2013, even as they grew by 1% QoQ to 303.9 million units, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service. Shipments for the full year 2022 also declined to 1.2 billion units, the lowest since 2013.
Commenting on overall market dynamics, Senior Analyst Harmeet Singh Walia said, “The war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds kept the consumer sentiment weak in 2022 while smartphone users reduced the frequency of their purchases. The smartphone market remained under pressure in the fourth quarter of 2022 as the cost-of-living crisis, shortage in the labor market and a decline in consumers’ purchasing power resulted in double-digit declines in the shipments of each of the top five smartphone players.”
Consequently, global smartphone revenue and operating profit also saw a decline, although to a lesser degree than in shipments. An increased mix of premium phone offerings by major OEMs drove up the overall average selling price (ASP) by 5% YoY in 2022. The 9% decline in revenue, while lower than in shipments, resulted in annual smartphone revenues amounting to $409 billion, the lowest since 2017. A larger decline was prevented by a 1% growth in Apple, the only top five smartphone OEM to do so.
Commenting on Apple’s performance, Research Director Jeff Fieldhack said, “having proficiently managed its production problems, Apple was able to weather a year already marred by economic and geopolitical turmoil better than other major smartphone players. Its iPhone Pro series continued performing well and its share of iPhone shipments could have been even higher if not for the production issues caused by the COVID-19 breakout at the Zhengzhou factory, which produces the vast majority of Pro series volumes. As a result, some Pro series volumes got pushed to January.”
Consequently, its shipment, revenue and operating profit declined YoY in Q4 2022. However, it outperformed a struggling smartphone market in terms of shipment, revenue and operating profit growth, in turn achieving its highest-ever shares of 18%, 48% and 85% in these metrics respectively, in 2022.
Apple also benefited from the premium segment, its primary constituency, being less severely affected by the economic and geopolitical uncertainties that marred the year. Moreover, mature smartphone users are now choosing premium devices that last longer.
Elaborating on the ‘premiumization’ trend, Research Director Tarun Pathak said, “premiumization can also be seen within the Android ecosystem and is being led by Samsung with its foldable smartphones. As a result, Samsung was the only top five OEM besides Apple to see a 1% growth in revenue, even though its shipments declined by 5% in 2022 and operating profit declined by 1%. The performance of its flagship smartphones was stronger than market projections. Nevertheless, with a smaller profit decline than the overall smartphone market, its operating profit share increased slightly to 12% in 2022.”
Chinese smartphone players suffered from domestic lockdowns for much of the year in addition to facing global economic and geopolitical difficulties. As a result, the shipments of Xiaomi, OPPO* and vivo fell by more than 20% each. Despite offering premium phones at aggressive margins, Chinese brands are yet to make headway in the premium market and have not been able to capitalize completely on Huawei’s decline. Unsurprisingly, then, their revenue as well as operating profit saw double-digit declines.
We expect the market to remain under pressure until the end of the first half of 2023 and to start recovering thereafter.
*OPPO includes OnePlus from Q3 2021
You can also visit our Data Section (updated quarterly) to view the smartphone market share for World, US, China and India.
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Feel free to reach us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.
Premium segment (>INR 30,000 or ~$365) contributed 11% to India’s smartphone shipments and 35% to market revenue in 2022, the highest ever.
Samsung led the market in 2022 in terms of shipment value share with a 22% share, followed by Apple.
However, in terms of shipment volume, Xiaomi led the market in 2022 with a 20% share, closely followed by Samsung. But Xiaomi slipped to third position in Q4 2022 with Samsung and vivo capturing first and second spots respectively.
5G smartphones captured a 32% share in 2022. Samsung became the top-selling 5G brand in 2022 with a 21% share.
Apple continued to lead the premium smartphone segment, with the iPhone 13 emerging as the top-selling model. Apple also led the market in Q4 2022 in terms of shipment value.
New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires – January 27, 2023
India’s smartphone shipments declined 9% YoY to reach over 152 million units in 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service. The YoY decline, which is the second ever in India’s smartphone market, can be attributed to the decline in entry-level and budget segments which faced supply constraints at the beginning of the year and then witnessed lower demand throughout the year. However, the premium segment continued to rise and captured a double-digit share for the first time, leading to growth in retail ASP.
Commenting on the market dynamics, Senior Research AnalystPrachir Singh said, “Consumer demand started declining from the second quarter when the global economy was crippled by multiple macroeconomic issues like all-time high inflation, rising unemployment and geopolitical conflicts, affecting India’s economy as well. Inventory build-up across channels after the second quarter led to lower-than-expected shipments throughout the second half of the year. We believe that the inventory and demand situation will continue to affect the market in the first half of 2023 before improving in the latter half driven by the festive season and upgrades to 5G devices.”
Commenting on the competitive landscape and price band analysis, Research Analyst Shilpi Jain said, “Despite declining shipments, the premium smartphone market’s share kept rising in 2022 and reached 11%, the highest ever. This paradoxical trend implies that India’s smartphone market is moving from being volume-driven to value-driven. While entry-tier and budget segments were most affected, the premium segment remained immune and showed double-digit growth. OEMs’ increased focus, consumers upgrading for premium features and, most importantly, availability of various financing schemes like ‘No-cost EMI’, ‘Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)’ and ‘Samsung finance+’ boosted this premiumization trend. We believe the momentum for the premium segment will continue in 2023 as well owing to OEMs’ focus and faster consumer upgrades.”
Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, Q4 2022 Notes: Xiaomi includes POCO; OPPO excludes OnePlus; vivo includes IQOO; Figures not exact due to rounding
Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, Q4 2022 Notes: Xiaomi includes POCO; OPPO excludes OnePlus; vivo includes IQOO; Figures not exact due to rounding
Overall, India smartphone market revenue remained flat despite 9% YoY decline in shipments. Samsung led the India smartphone market revenue with 20% share driven by its premium smartphone models, especially the Galaxy S22 series. Samsung increased its share in the premium segment and re-captured second position. Apple rose from the fourth position in 2021 in revenue share and captured the second position in 2022. iPhone 13 captured the top smartphone model spot in 2022. China brands saw a decline in value share cumulatively, capturing 60% revenue share in 2022 as compared to 65% in 2021.
Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, Q4 2022 Notes: Xiaomi includes POCO; OPPO excludes OnePlus; vivo includes IQOO; Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Market Summary
Xiaomi slipped to third place in Q4 2022 but held the top spot in India’s smartphone market in 2022 with a 24% YoY decline. 2022 was a tough year for Xiaomi as it faced legal complications, component shortages and intense competition. Inventory build-up in online channels during the festive season further slowed its shipments in Q4 2022.
Though Samsungheld the second spot in 2022, it emerged as the leading brand in Q4 2022. It was the only smartphone brand among the top five which did not decline and remained flat. Samsung also became the top 5G smartphone brand in 2022 with a 21% share. It also led the affordable premium segment (INR 30,000-INR 45,000 or ~$365-550) in 2022 driven by the revamping of the A series and attractive promotional offers during the festive season. It was also the fastest growing brand in the ultra-premium segment (>INR 45,000 or ~$550).
vivo secured second place in Q4 2022 and managed to take third place in 2022. It also captured the third spot in 2022 in terms of shipment value share. A strong focus on the offline market propelled its growth in Q4 2022. Affordable pricing strategies also helped vivo to expand its consumer base, while its subsidiary brand IQOO strengthened its hold in the online market. It also held the second spot in 5G smartphone shipments in 2022 with a 17% share, driven by the T series and V series.
realme slipped to fourth place in 2022, with a 14% YoY decline due to higher exposure to the sub-INR 10,000 segment, where demand was most affected. Many factors hampered realme’s growth in 2022, such as inventory build-up, unfavorable market conditions in the sub-INR 10,000 segment, and economic headwinds. However, the brand is now focusing on mid-tier and 5G as it launched its number series towards the end of the year with all 5G SKUs in the >INR 15,000 segment.
OPPO maintained its fifth position in India’s smartphone market in 2022 with a 7% YoY decline. It revamped its portfolio in the budget segment to drive volumes. However, the major focus remained on the upper mid-tier (INR 20,000-INR 30,000 or ~$240-$365) as it was the fastest growing brand, registering 80% growth within this segment driven by the F series.
Transsion Group brands itel, Infinix and TECNO accounted for 12% of India’s handset market and secured the third spot in 2022. In the sub-INR 6,000 (~$73) segment, itel was the best-selling brand driven by the A27 and A23 Pro sales. itel also led India’s feature phone market in 2022. TECNO took third place in the sub-INR 8,000 (~97) segment driven by the Spark Go 2022 and Pop 5 LTE sales. Infinix and TECNO are now focusing on higher price segments as they entered the premium segment towards the year-end.
Apple grew 16% YoY in 2022. It maintained its lead in the overall premium segment (>INR 30,000 or ~$365) as well as the ultra-premium segment (>INR 45,000 or ~$550). The iPhone 13 became the top-selling model in 2022 in the overall Indian smartphone market. Apple also led the India smartphone market in terms of shipment value in Q4 2022. India has become a strategic market for Apple. Increasing ‘Make in India’ capabilities for both local consumption and exports, expanding offline share through LFRs and aggressive promotions during the festive season accelerated Apple’s growth in India.
OnePlus grew 50% YoY in 2022 driven by the OnePlus Nord CE 2 series. It captured the second spot in the affordable premium segment with a 22% share. The Nord CE 2 Lite was the top-selling 5G model in the sub-INR 20,000 (~$240) segment in 2022. OnePlus focused on diversifying and expanding its product portfolio across different price points and increasing its offline presence to drive sales.
The comprehensive and in-depth Q4 2022 Market Monitor is available for subscribing clients.
Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.
The Market Monitor research relies on sell-in (shipments) estimates based on vendors’ IR results and vendor polling, triangulated with sell-through (sales), supply chain checks and secondary research.
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
China’s smartphone sales declined 14% YoY in 2022 to record their fifth consecutive year of decline.
Apple’s sales outperformed the country’s market in 2022, falling by only 3% YoY.
Major Android OEMs such as OPPO (-27% YoY), vivo (-23% YoY) and Xiaomi (-19% YoY) saw big YoY declines.
China’s Q4 2022 smartphone sales declined 15% YoY. All quarters in 2022 saw double-digit YoY sales declines.
Looking ahead, we expect a market turnaround once COVID-19 herd immunity is achieved, which we expect sometime in Q2 2023.
Boston, Denver, Seoul, Taipei, Beijing, London, Toronto, New Delhi, Hong Kong – January 27, 2023
China’s smartphone sales declined 14% YoY in 2022 to reach their lowest level in a decade, according to Counterpoint Research’s Market Pulse Service. 2022 was also the fifth consecutive year of YoY sales declines in China. Macroeconomic headwinds and the impact of COVID-19 led to the sales plunge.
In Q4 2022, China’s smartphone sales declined 15% YoY. Therefore, sales declined YoY in double digits in every quarter of 2022. The sudden relaxing of the COVID-19 policy in December resulted in a surge in cases and led the market to decline 5% QoQ to record its lowest quarterly sales in the year, instead of posting a typical seasonal increase.
Since the spring of 2022, many cities in China, both large and small, were being subjected to COVID-19 restrictions, which negatively impacted consumer sentiment and further delayed smartphone replacements.
In 2022, vivo retained the first spot with a 19.2% market share, followed by Apple at 18.0% and OPPO at 17.5%.
Apple declined 3% YoY in 2022 but was able to outperform the market to become the #2 brand in China for the first time for a full year. It also reached its highest-ever quarterly share, capturing 23.7% of the sales in Q4 2022. This was despite the shortages faced by the iPhone 14 Pro versions as well as the comparatively lower popularity of the iPhone 14 series’ non-Pro versions due to limited upgrades compared to the iPhone 13.
HONOR was the only brand in 2022 to have positive YoY growth at 38% YoY. However, this growth was mainly due to a lower base in 2021, when the brand had started its resurgence in the Chinese market. HONOR made its comeback with the HONOR 50 in 2021. Now the brand has stabilized with more product lines covering all price segments.
vivo, OPPO and Xiaomi saw YoY declines of 23%, 27% and 19% respectively in 2022 as demand dropped amid economic uncertainty.
Chinese OEMs continue to believe that the premium segment is the key and launched premium smartphone models during the year. They also introduced more foldable devices. Competition in the foldable segment is likely to intensify in 2023 and Chinese OEMs will look to expand their foldable offerings in the overseas markets.
In Q4 2022, Apple captured 23.7% of the market, maintaining its leading position. But it registered a double-digit YoY decline like major Android OEMs. Huawei recovered from its low base in 2021, increasing by 15% YoY in Q4. However, the brand is still unable to ship 5G-enabled devices, which is a major concern for its sales outlook.
All the major OEMs offered stronger promotions during the Singles’ Day online sales festival. They also used the sales promotion season to shed excess inventory. Smartphone sales surged MoM, but the rise didn’t sustain into December when COVID-19 started spreading fast.
The sudden change in China’s COVID-19 policy caught the market off guard, but the reopening process is also ahead of the expected schedule. Looking ahead, China’s smartphone sales may show a positive YoY growth in Q2 2023, when the country should have restored normal social activities.
However, consumer sentiment will take longer than the economy to recover, particularly when it comes to income prospects. Therefore, we do not expect any explosive growth in smartphone sales this year. But a marginal recovery can still be expected.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
Cumulative 5G smartphone shipments will cross the 100-million mark in Q2 2023 and exceed 4G smartphone shipments by the end of 2023.
India’s 5G smartphone shipments are estimated to grow 81% YoY in 2022 driven by their expanding presence in lower price bands (<INR 20,000 or ~$244) and rollout of 5G networks.
5G share in lower price bands (<INR 20,000 or ~$244) is gradually increasing, from 4% in 2021 to 14% in 2022.
India’s smartphone shipments are projected to witness a yearly decline in 2022 due to macroeconomic factors affecting consumer demand in the entry and budget segments. However, 5G has been a driving force and will continue to push smartphone demand in 2023 as well. India’s 5G smartphone shipments are estimated to grow 81% YoY in 2022 driven by their expanding presence in lower price bands (<INR 20,000 or ~$244) and rollout of 5G networks in the latter half of the year.
According to Counterpoint’s India Market Outlook, cumulative 5G smartphone shipments will cross the 100-million mark in Q2 2023 and exceed 4G smartphone shipments by the end of 2023. Our latest consumer study also reveals that 5G is the third most important factor for future smartphone purchases.
India 5G vs 4G Smartphone Shipment Penetration
Source: Counterpoint Research India Smartphone Outlook, November 2022
5G share in lower price bands (<INR 20,000 or ~$244) is gradually increasing, from 4% in 2021 to 14% in 2022. It is expected to reach 30% in 2023. The cost of an entry-level 5G smartphone came down to below INR 10,000 (~$122) in 2022 with the launch of the Lava Blaze 5G. The availability of cheaper 5G chipsets from Qualcomm and MediaTek has enabled OEMs to launch more 5G devices in the lower price segment, while the commercial rollout of 5G services has also driven demand for the same.
Source: Counterpoint Research India Smartphone Outlook, November 2022
However, the growth here has been limited due to component supply shortages, inflation, geopolitical conflicts and other macroeconomic issues, which have delayed 5G device launches in the budget segment. Though OEMs have brought more 5G devices for lower price bands (<INR 20,000 or ~$244), they have done so by dropping or downgrading other key features like display or fast charging to lessen the impact of increasing component costs. This, in turn, has affected the consumer demand for 5G within this price tier. The limited availability of 5G networks has also affected the demand.
We expect these constraints to ease by the end of 2023, leading to the mass adoption of 5G. Better availability of networks in major areas will also facilitate 5G smartphone growth in 2023, which is estimated to be 62% YoY.
OPPO led the ‘Made in India’ smartphone shipments with a 24% share, followed by Samsung.
Bharat FIH remained the top EMS player in terms of smartphone shipments.
Among Indian players, Dixon emerged as the top smartphone EMS provider.
New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, London, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires – December 27, 2022
‘Made in India’ smartphone shipments declined 8% YoY in Q3 2022(July-September) to reach over 52 million units, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Made in India service. This is the first decline reported this year. Economic headwinds that led to a decline in consumer demand, and market uncertainties due to geopolitics were the prime reasons for the contraction.
Commenting on the local manufacturing ecosystem, Senior Research AnalystPrachir Singh said, “The Made in India smartphone shipments declined in Q3 2022 as compared to Q3 2021. Two major forces impacted the growth of such smartphone shipments. First, the decline in consumer demand, especially in the entry-level segment, due to the negative macroeconomic indicators. Second, the high channel inventory at the start of the quarter also impacted the manufacturing during the quarter. The country’s smartphone manufacturing ecosystem continues to grow with almost 63% of such shipments coming from in-house manufacturers and 37% from third-party EMS players. OPPO led the Made in India smartphone shipments in Q3 with a 24% share, followed by Samsung and vivo. BYD and Lava were the fastest-growing manufacturers in terms of smartphone shipments. Further, we will continue to see PLI disbursements in subsequent quarters, which will add to the local manufacturing landscape. Overall, the manufacturing trend is witnessing an upward trajectory with multiple partnerships happening in recent months, like the ones between Tata Group and Wistron and between Foxconn and Vedanta.”
Source: Counterpoint Made in India Research, Q3 2022 Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding
On the Indian government’s focus, Research Analyst Priya Joseph said, “On the regulatory front, despite the adverse global climate, the Indian smartphone market has remained resilient. The government’s efforts to bring about a supply chain shift and make India a manufacturing hub with constant policy interventions in the form of PLI schemes has helped the country to attract major global players across the value chain. Further, the government is actively pursuing the target of expanding the local value addition from the present 17-18% to 25% in the near future.”
Looking ahead, we believe that the manufacturing volumes will grow with an increasing focus of the OEMs to export to other countries. Increasing local value addition and exports have been the main focus points of the government under the ‘Make in India’ scheme.
Notes:
OPPO manufactures smartphones for OPPO, realme and OnePlus.
Bharat FIH manufactures smartphones for Xiaomi.
Dixon Technologies manufactures smartphones for Samsung.
Dixon Technologies’ share does not include Padget Electronics.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
More and more smartphone OEMs are adopting the circular approach. Apple and Samsung stand out as leaders in sustainable initiatives.
Each of the top OEMs performs differently across the three major stages of the smartphone circular economy – production, usage and end of life.
OEM tie-ups with local sustainability partners have increased, leading to circular initiatives across geographies. But OEM initiatives fall short when compared to the volumes of new smartphones being shipped every year.
London, Jakarta, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – December 27, 2022
Apple leads the smartphone space in the overall approach towards sustainability, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest “Smartphones and Circular Economy: Creating a Sustainable Future” report. This report assesses how well the OEM is reducing its impact on the environment by reusing materials, recycling devices, and minimizing waste at each stage, from the design of the smartphone, processing chips, and packaging to power consumption. The report also encompasses corporate-level initiatives, progress on carbon neutrality, and SDG 13 (one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations).
The Smartphone Circular Economy Report Scorecard includes a robust metric system that evaluates the top five smartphone OEMs globally. Each OEM has its own vision and overall approach toward sustainability. Apple’s vision seems to be clearer than its competition and its actions support the said vision.
Apple on Top in Sustainability Vision Rankings Compared to Immediate Competition
Source: Counterpoint Research’s Smartphones and Circular Economy Report
While sustainability vision is just the start, each of these OEMs has performed quite differently across the three major stages of the smartphone circular economy:
Production
Usage
End of Life
Production
Production of a smartphone is responsible for about 80% of the total carbon footprint in its life cycle, and hence it is the most vital of the stages. OEMs have concentrated on and advertised this aspect the most. Newly sourced materials are being replaced with eco-friendly components, while biodegradable and eco-friendly packaging is the norm now. Even water-saving mechanisms are being adhered to in the entire manufacturing ecosystem. OEMs are now expecting their vendors to adhere to environmental norms as well. Top brands like Samsung, Apple, and OPPO have started propagating environmental benefits through their initiatives in production. The details, however, are more complex than what is being advertised. While the initiatives are a big step in the right direction, revenue and profit remain the apex objectives.
Usage
Most consumer durable brands inherently work towards motivating consumers to replace their devices with newer, more technologically enhanced versions. But due to sustainability efforts, OEMs have to maintain a balance between enticing the consumer and saving the environment. Chinese leaders like OPPO, Xiaomi, and, vivo are consistently trying to improve battery life and energy efficiency.
While Apple scores high on overall longevity, updates, and innovations toward sustainability, Samsung scores higher in repair, energy efficiency and after-sales networks. In the end, it depends on how long a consumer chooses to use a device. Any steps taken by OEMs to support this endeavor matter most.
End of Life
OEMs have a lot to do when it comes to reclaiming their smartphones once their useable life comes to an end. Getting pre-owned smartphones back into the system is necessary to handle them sustainably. They need to be repaired/refurbished for reuse or recycled responsibly to complete the circular loop. The main objective here is to reduce e-waste. It is vital to know how much OEMs are doing for this cause.
The global refurbished market has grown by leaps and bounds in the last few years. In 2021, the market grew 15% YoY and shows promise to grow further in the coming years. Carriers and retail refurbishment players are growing but OEM initiatives on reclamation, refurbishment, and e-waste reduction are quite limited. Even the best brands are not active enough in pulling back their used stock. The highest potential now rests with initiatives like trade-ins, which ensure a buyback of the older devices. This takes volumes of landfills. Brands like OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi have a long way to go with reclaiming and refurbishing devices if we consider the volume of new smartphones shipped by them every year. Apple and Samsung lead here as well but most of the reclaiming and refurbishing is done by the other players in the secondary ecosystem. The end-of-life stage is quite complex but one of the most rewarding if done right.
OEM tie-ups with local sustainability partners have increased, leading to circular initiatives across geographies. But such initiatives need to grow at a faster rate to be in consonant with the volumes of new smartphones being shipped every year. There are opportunities as well. Sustainability and its different aspects, initiatives and players can be broken down into many sectors with varying opportunities. The benefits for the environment compound when the industry and government take steps in the right direction.
OEMs already have a name for themselves, but their sustainability initiatives will either make or break their perception in the years to come.
Feel free to contact us at press@counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
India’s smartphone shipments are expected to fall 5% YoY in 2022, dipping for the second time in the last three years.
Weak demand in entry-level segments hit sales even as the premium segment continued to grow.
The market is expected to grow by 10% in 2023 to reach 175 million units.
New Delhi, London, Hong Kong, Seoul, Beijing, San Diego, Buenos Aires – December 22, 2022
India’s smartphone shipments are expected to fall 5% YoY in 2022, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest projections. The inflationary macro environment, component shortages and rise in their prices, and wild cards like the Russia-Ukraine war and weakness in the overall global economy affected the smartphone market globally, including in India.
The Indian market has seen a steady rise in the last five years barring the COVID-19-hit 2020 to grow 1.5 times from 2016 to 2021. The market is projected to grow 10% in 2023 to reach 175 million units.
What happened in 2022?
The market failed to meet expectations in 2022. It started the year with component shortages. But even as the situation resolved on the supply side by the first half of 2022, the consumer demand did not improve as expected. The weak demand was especially felt in the entry and mid-level price bands owing to the increase in retail prices due to the rise in component prices and inflationary macro environment. The premium market continued to grow in 2022 with the >INR 30,000 ($400) price band reaching a new high. The continued premiumization of the market is the main reason why it saw positive revenue growth with the highest-ever average selling price (ASP) of close to INR 20,000 ($250).
High installed base: India currently has more than 600 million smartphone users, a number which is expected to grow over time as more feature phone users migrate to smartphones. The replacement demand from these users will drive the market in 2023 and beyond.
5G push: 5G networks are now live in multiple cities. Even though 5G smartphones have been making news in the market, they will account for just one-third of the market in 2022. 5G has been high on Indian consumers’ wish lists and with 5G networks now being available, many consumers will replace their 4G smartphones in 2023.
Government purchase of smartphones to push sales: The state of Rajasthan has rolled out a tender for the acquisition and distribution of smartphones among women in 2023.
Improvement in macro environment: We also expect the inflationary macro environment to get better next year. Therefore, consumers who postponed buying a new phone in 2022 will be able to buy a new one in 2023.
Long-term outlook remains positive
Despite the dip in 2022, India’s smartphone market has been resilient and performed better than many other regions. A large installed base, feature phone-to-smartphone migration, local smartphone production, development of supply chain and the emergence of newer use cases will continue to grow the market in the longer term.
Background
Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.
MEA smartphone shipments retreated 20.4% YoY and 12% QoQ in Q3 2022 to 35 million units.
This was the lowest level since Q2 2020, or since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Samsung’s shipments and market share increased YoY as the new A-series models continued to gain momentum.
Transsion Group’s shipments led the market downturn, mainly due to TECNO and itel’s aggressive destocking efforts. Infinix, on the other hand, remained resilient to market headwinds.
Xiaomi returned to growth as product availability improved, while its exposure to the Middle East market benefitted from improving sentiment.
London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – December 19, 2022
Smartphone shipments in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region fell 20.4% YoY and 12% QoQ to 35 million units in Q3 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor Service. Compared to the previous quarter, the macro situation continued to worsen as inflation undermined consumer sentiment, while OEMs became ever more cautious in areas such as distribution expansion, marketing efforts and stock management.
MEA Smartphone Quarterly Unit Shipments
Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, Q3 2022 Notes: Xiaomi includes POCO and Redmi; OPPO includes OnePlus; Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Commenting on the market’s performance, Senior Analyst Yang Wang said, “The biggest issue in the smartphone market, and indeed any consumer market, this year has been macro issues. We saw no let-up in inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in the MEA market in Q3 2022. Consumer sentiment continued to be bleak, leading to OEMs and distributors cutting market spending. On the other hand, high inventory levels forced market participants to adopt destocking measures, hurting profit margins. Despite this, the 20% YoY drop probably exaggerated the gloominess in the market, as Q3 2021 was an especially successful period for the region.”
Within the MEA region, the Middle East fared better due to the GCC countries’ resilience. High inflows of energy revenues buttressed state coffers, which strengthened local currencies and kept inflation down. The region was also boosted by sales events associated with the World Cup, which is being held in Qatar since November. On the other hand, roughly 8 in 10 countries in Africa saw inflation accelerating in Q3, according to Counterpoint estimates. Persistent energy supply issues, as well as worries about another round of food shortages, kept consumers ever more cautious. We believe there is further room for inflation rates to rise in Africa towards the end of the year.
MEA Smartphone Unit Shipments Share, Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021
Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, Q3 2022 Notes: Xiaomi includes POCO and Redmi; OPPO includes OnePlus; Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
In terms of the MEA smartphone market’s competitive landscape, the biggest takeaway from the quarter was that while the economic downturn hurt most players, smaller brands disproportionately suffered more, as seen from the dramatic loss of market share. During this period of rising costs and worsening market sentiment, smaller brands faced mounting supply challenges. Maintaining cost discipline meant slashing spending elsewhere, such as marketing and distribution, and smaller players were unable to keep up with the bigger OEMs.
Market leader Samsung saw YoY volume and market share growth, as its supply issues subsided, while the Galaxy A series’ 2022 iterations continued to gain momentum. Samsung continues to be the best-placed OEM in the region as its broad product portfolio covers every customer segment. The brand is well-positioned to capture market volume when the economic issues ease.
Transsion Group brands continued to take the MEA region’s biggest share of smartphone shipments. However, its exposure to the lower-value segments, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, meant that it faced the strongest headwinds among the big brands. We noted aggressive destocking efforts during the quarter, mostly concentrated within the lower-end TECNO and itel brands. On the other hand, Infinix continued to perform well as its 2022 models ticked all the boxes. We believe Transsion may stage a rebound towards the end of the year, as the company prepares for higher-end launches for the TECNO and Infinix brands.
Xiaomi captured the third spot among OEMs, as supply issues disappeared in the rear-view mirror. The company’s affordable mid-range products, particularly the Redmi Note 11 and Redmi 10 series, remained popular among price-conscious customers, while its business received a boost due to favorable conditions in the Middle East region.
Apple continued to gain market share in the region, largely due to improving distribution across the region. The iPhone 13 series appeared regularly among the best-selling models in the region, even during the last months of the iPhone 13 cycle. We expect Apple’s volume and market share to increase further in the next quarter as the iPhone 14 sales begin to gain momentum.
While the end-of-year shopping season is expected to deliver a boost to the smartphone market, sales increases are unlikely to match the levels seen last year, as affordability will continue to be first and foremost among customers’ concerns. Macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainties may well persist into 2023, but we do expect a small rebound in the MEA smartphone market next year. Economies in MEA have fared better than those in developed countries, and the second half of 2023 may see a release of pent-up demand, just as post-COVID-19 reopening spurred a period of consumer optimism.
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Source: Counterpoint Research India Smartphone Outlook, November 2022
Source: Counterpoint Research India Smartphone Outlook, November 2022
