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Global PC Shipments in Q2 2022 See Largest YoY Decline Since Q2 2013

Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – July 27, 2022

Global PC shipments fell 11.1% YoY in Q2 2022 to reach 71.2 million units and record the largest YoY decline since Q2 2013, according to Counterpoint data. The Q2 2022 decline was largely due to lockdowns in China’s Shanghai and Kunshan, which hit the PC supply chain. However, as the OEMs’ inventory continues to accumulate amid lackluster consumer demand globally, we believe supply issues will likely get resolved in the second half of this year.

Diminishing YoY PC Shipment Growth Since Q1 2021

Counterpoint Research - Global PC shipment by quarter

Source: Counterpoint Research

The macroeconomic turbulence continues to impact worldwide consumption momentum. Regional conflicts as well as global inflation have resulted in a downward sloping demand and consumer spending. Enterprises too are putting off their new purchases and device upgrades, though the orders from the commercial segment have remained more solid compared to the consumer segment. By region, the US and EU experienced relatively huge double-digit YoY declines in their Q2 2022 shipments, mainly dragged by Chromebook demand correction and soft consumer demand, as these regions had started seeing shipment growth ahead of other regions last year.

On the other hand, lockdowns in China during the quarter hit hard the laptop supply chain, as major laptop ODMs, including Quanta, Compal and Wistron, suffered manufacturing disruptions. The most harmful impacts were in April and May when we saw approximately 40% and 20% YoY declines respectively for key ODMs. Production lines resumed normal operations in the second half of May and were trying to clear order backlogs.

Major Laptop ODMs’ Inventory Levels (in $ mn)

Counterpoint Research - Major Laptop ODM's inventory level

Source: Counterpoint Research

Even though the top three brands showed a YoY decline in Q2 shipments, they all managed to keep their rankings unchanged. Lenovo maintained its leadership in the global PC market with a 24.4% share in Q2 2022. The brand’s total shipments fell 12.7% YoY to 17.4 million units mainly due to weak consumer demand, partly offset by moderate commercial orders.

HP suffered the most among the top brands in Q2 2022, reporting a 27% YoY decline in shipments from a high base last year. The sharp decline was mainly due to soft momentum for consumer products and Chromebooks. On the other hand, Dell had the smallest adjustment to its YoY shipment performance, thanks to a commercial/premium-focused product strategy.

Acer saw a 14.8% YoY shipment decline off a relatively high base in Q2 2021. Despite Chromebook weakness continuing to cap Acer’s growth momentum, its market exposure in entry- to mainstream-level laptops helped the brand take fourth place in global PC shipments in Q2 2022.

Apple reported a sharp decline of 20% YoY in its Q2 shipments largely due to supply chain disruption at Quanta’s manufacturing lines in China. The consumers too were waiting for a new MacBook series equipped with M2 chips. As a result, the company lost its fourth place in the global PC rankings for Q2 2022.

Asus’ Q2 shipments were down 7.7% YoY thanks to its commercial segment focus in recent quarters combined with consumer spending weakness entering 2022. The brand’s total shipments of 4.7 million made it share the fifth position with Apple in Q2 2022.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q2 2022

 

Counterpoint Research - Q2 Global PC market share

More shipment adjustments seen

We had cut our 2022 shipment forecast in Q1 2022 to reflect the beginning of a weakening PC demand. But with persistent inflation pressure and enterprise spending saturating, we expect order adjustments to continue even as the average selling price plateaus on easing supply constraints. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for the 2022 PC shipments to a 9% YoY decline, with potential bright spots of new M2 MacBooks and desktop demand rebounding after the post-COVID-19 reopening of offices.

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Global PC Shipments Down 4.3% YoY in Q1 2022; Component Shortages Likely to Ease in H2

Taipei, London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Seoul – April 28, 2022

Global PC shipments fell 4.3% YoY in Q1 2022 to reach 78.7 million units, according to Counterpoint Research Global PC tracker. Entering 2022, the PC supply chain experienced easing component shortages and logistics issues compared to the second half of 2021. Order backlog from 2021 continued to contribute substantially to PC shipments in the beginning of 2022. This supports our previous view of another PC shipment plateau in 2022.

Our checks suggest the PC supply chain turned relatively conservative on shipment outlook in the middle of Q1 2022, largely dragged by global inflation and regional conflict, which brought uncertainties to PC demand and blurred the overall PC shipment momentum ahead. The overall PC shipments in 2022 are expected to be shy of our forecasts made at the end of 2021.

In addition, COVID-19 lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai and Kunshan, where many laptop manufacturing lines are located, will cause shipment correction in April. Compared to OEMs, ODMs currently face more issues related to manufacturing resource allocation than component shortage impacts.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2022

Counterpoint Research - Q1 global PC shipments ranking

Lenovo maintained its lead in the global PC market in Q1 2022 with a 23.1% share, which was down a little compared to 2021. The brand’s total shipments of 18.2 million units were down 9.5% YoY. Lenovo performed well during the pandemic largely due to its in-house manufacturing and operation control. This advantage will continue to help the company in times of demand uncertainty or component supply issues.

HP took a 20.2% share to capture the second spot. The company saw a 16% YoY decline in shipments largely due to Chromebook losing momentum and consumer demand weakness.

Dell, on the other hand, posted a slight increase in its shipments in the first quarter of 2022, riding on the commercial/premium product strategy tailwinds. Dell’s market share expanded by around 100 bps in Q1 2022.

Apple continued its success with the M1 MacBook series to see 8% YoY shipment growth in Q1 2022, which boosted its market share by 100 bps YoY. Asus saw 4% YoY shipment growth thanks to its gaming and commercial products expansion. Acer continued to struggle due to Chromebook sales losing momentum and ended the quarter with a 1% shipment decline. Asus and Acer both had ~7% market share in the quarter.

Component shortages likely to ease in H2 2022

In the past two years, the PC supply chain has spent much effort dealing with demand uncertainties caused by COVID-19 and component shortages. But since late 2021, demand-supply gaps have been narrowing, signaling an approaching end to supply tightness across the broader ecosystem. Among all PCs and laptops, the supply gap for the most important components such as power management ICs, Wi-Fi and I/O interface IC has narrowed. We have seen OEMs and ODMs continuing to accumulate component inventory to cope with uncertainties arising from COVID-19. Combined with the abovementioned consumer and Chromebook demand weakness, we believe component shortages are going to ease in H2 2022.

PC Component Shortage Outlook for 2022

Countertpoint Research - PC component outlook for 2022

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India Tablet Shipments Grew 28% YoY in 2021

India’s tablet market shipments grew 28% YoY in 2021, according to Counterpoint Research’s India Tablet Shipment by Model Tracker. The COVID-19 pandemic has redefined the way we work and study by increasing the significance of digital tools. This paradigm shift has translated into the tablet emerging as one of the preferred computing devices for video communication, content consumption and creation, and running productivity applications. Furthermore, government tenders for procuring tablets have helped revive demand for this segment which was squeezed between large-size smartphones and PCs.Tablet OEMs' Shipment Market Share in India, 2021

Lenovo dominated the tablet market in 2021 due to its focus on the lower middle segment (INR 10,000-INR 20,000), which constitutes more than half of the tablet market in India. Another key driver which helped Lenovo maintain its leadership was its wider distribution network in the country.

Samsung captured the second spot while Apple took the third position with 25% and 16% market shares respectively. The market is quite consolidated as the top three players have more than four-fifths of the total market in India.

We expect more players to enter this market to utilize the untapped potential of this segment. More established smartphone brands are entering this segment by leveraging their existing distribution channels, scale and marketing muscle. realme managed to capture a 4% share soon after entering this segment. Xiaomi is about to re-enter the segment by launching its first tablet in the INR 20,000-INR 30,000 price band. The device will compete against Samsung’s A-series and Lenovo’s M series, which are quite popular in the market. Other Chinese smartphone brands like OPPO, vivo and OnePlus are all geared up to enter this market soon. Because of this, we expect the share of Chinese brands to increase soon. They will focus on maintaining their market position as they have in the mobile handset market. The entry of new players will open more choices for consumers in different price bands.

Market Summary:

  • Lenovo dominated the tablet market in 2021 by capturing a 42% share. Its growth was driven by the strong performance of the M8 and M10 in the INR 10,000-INR 20,000 price band.
  • Samsung also did well in 2021 and took the second position with a 25% market share. It has a wide portfolio of tablets, from the mid-segment to premium ones, to cater to the diverse needs of customers.
  • Apple captured the third position in the tablet market with a 16% share. iPad drove most of the volume for the brand.
  • Lava managed to be in the top five brands with budget-friendly tablets in a price-sensitive market.
  • realme forayed into the market in September with its realme pad model, capturing a 4% share.
  • The INR 10,000-INR 20,000 price band is the most popular price band as it covers more than half of the total tablet market, with a major contribution from brands like Lenovo, Samsung and Lava.
  • Most of the tablets consumed in India are imported. But with the government’s stance on ‘Make in India’, the share of domestic manufacturing will increase in the coming period from its current share of 20%. This will enable competitive pricing in the market and make the device more affordable for the consumer.

We expect the Indian tablet market to reach around 5 million units in 2022 as the market is still underpenetrated. The entry of smartphone brands will increase product options for the Indian consumer at different price points. The increase in domestic manufacturing will also provide the necessary boost to this segment.

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Global PC Shipments up 3.1% YoY in Q4 2021; Component Supply Improving

London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – January 20, 2022

Global PC shipments reached 90.3 million in Q4 2021 to maintain their YoY growth momentum at 3.1%, coming on a relatively high base in 2020. The situation on the component supply and logistic fronts continued to improve but at a slow pace. The shipment forecast for Q1 2022 remains optimistic, mainly due to a solid demand and improving component supply. OEMs and ODMs are also expecting some easing of pressure on PC components.

In Q4 2021, the supply gap for the most important PC components, such as power management IC, Wi-Fi and I/O interface IC, narrowed. We believe both OEMs and ODMs will continue to accumulate component inventory to cope with uncertainties cropping from COVID-19. Therefore, we do not see any big risk to PC shipment numbers due to supply backlogs.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q4 2021

 

Counterpoint Research - Q4 global PC ranking

Lenovo continued to lead the global PC market in Q4 2021 with a 24% share, slightly shy of its share in Q4 2020 but still having its highest unit sales in 2021 at 21.7 million. HP took a 20.5% share with 1% YoY growth driven by the easing of component shortage. Dell posted a 15% YoY growth in the quarter riding on the strong momentum from its commercial/premium product strategy. Apple’s shipments in Q4 2021 remained largely unchanged thanks to the M1 Macbook’s success. On the other hand, Asus saw a single-digit YoY growth in Q4, while Acer saw a single-digit YoY decline with market shares of 6.8% and 6.7%, respectively.

Counterpoint Research - Q4 global PC market share

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contact:

William Li

Follow Counterpoint Research
 press(at)counterpointresearch.com

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Global PC Shipments Grow for Sixth Consecutive Quarter; Chromebook in Slow Lane

London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – October 18, 2021

Global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021 at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints. However, the 9.3% YoY growth during the quarter implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020. In addition, most OEMs and ODMs are not seeing any shrinking gap between orders (demand) and shipments (supply).

In Q3 2021, the global PC supply chain remained constrained due to component shortages related to power management IC, radio frequency, audio codec and others. We believe there is no solution to this demand-supply mismatch till mid-2022. ODMs are still pulling in chips inventory to tackle any downside risks. Besides, unstable global logistics and manufacturing site shutdowns in Southeast Asia and China add more uncertainties to PC supplies.

PC demand remained solid during the quarter. Commercial PC demand is gradually heating up while consumer PC momentum is decelerating. Chromebook turned out to be the biggest drag during the quarter, as both government and education orders were largely fulfilled in the first half, in addition to the increasing availability of COVID-19 vaccines and reopening of offices and schools across the world. We believe Chromebook demand will not disappear, just take a break this year.

 Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q3 2021

Counterpoint Research - Global Q3 2021 brand shipment numbers and YoY growth

Lenovo was in first place again in the third quarter with a 23.9% market share after shipping 20.1 million units, slightly above the Q2 number mainly due to its operational flexibility. HP’s 20.5% share and 6% YoY decline were largely due to Chromebook slowdown as well as component shortages. Dell had a 30% YoY growth in the third quarter due to a relatively lower base and its commercial/premium product focus. Apple’s shipments grew 11% YoY in Q3 2021 riding on the replacement demand for the M1 Mac. Asus shipments were boosted by both consumer and commercial segments. The brand took fifth place in Q3 beating Acer, which recorded a 3% YoY growth due to Chromebook slowdown.
Counterpoint Research - Global Q3 2021 brand shipment share mix

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

William Li

Follow Counterpoint Research
 press(at)counterpointresearch.com

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Global PC Shipments up 15% YoY in Q2 2021; Macs See Record Sales on M1 Push

London, Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – July 30, 2021

Global PC demand continued to grow in Q2 2021 amid component shortages, with shipments increasing 15% YoY to 80.1 million during the quarter, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest data. This growth was largely driven by work-from-home and distance learning requirements triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak. In terms of shipment mix, both commercial and consumer demand remained strong, with models from the former category outpacing the latter one.

The global PC supply chain has been experiencing component shortages for the past several months, resulting in an imbalance between orders and actual shipments. This situation will not improve in the second half of the year. Therefore, we may not see normal seasonal trends in the PC market in 2021, as accumulated orders cannot be fulfilled anytime soon.

With the pandemic continuing to drive demand, global PC shipments are likely to reach another peak this year since the early 2010s. Research Analyst William Li said, “We expect double-digit shipment growth in 2021 but have reduced the number slightly to factor in component shortages and Chromebook sales slowdown. In 2022, demand triggered by the new Windows 11 and post-pandemic work patterns will not be sufficient to further boost the gigantic expansion of 2021. Therefore, we may see a relatively soft market next year.”

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q2 2021

Counterpoint Research - Q2 2021 Global PC shipments

Lenovo stayed ahead in the market in Q2 2021 with a 25% share. The company is likely to extend its dominance and outperform the global PC market. HP’s 23% share marked its stability in the enterprise market, though its growth momentum was partly offset by decelerating Chromebook shipments. Dell also leveraged the elevated commercial demand to gain 20% YoY and push forward its market share to 17%. Apple’s 22% YoY growth in the quarter supported its 7.5% market share despite severe component shortages.

Counterpoint Research - Q2 2021 Global PC brand share

Thanks to the introduction of Apple Silicon M1, Macs had their greatest Q2 sales ever and reached 6 million shipments in the quarter and 90% Macs are powered by M1 chips. Associate Director Brady Wang said, “The M1 can meet most of the general demands. However, it is not only a replacement for the Intel CPU but also allows Apple to develop new apps and create fully controlled ecosystems. Furthermore, M1-powered Macs can help Apple improve its profit margin by increasing Mac store sales and lowering production expenses.”

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

William Li

Brady Wang

Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

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Global PC Shipments up 45% YoY in Q1 2021; Chip Shortage Impact to Continue in H2 2021

  • Global PC shipments grew 45% YoY in Q1 2021 on solid demand and a low base in the same period in 2020 due to COVID-19.
  • Shortages of key IC components will continue to affect the shipment schedules of PC brands and ODMs.

The recovery reported by the PC market in H2 2020 gained momentum in H1 2021. Global PC shipments grew 45% YoY to 75.6 million in Q1 2021 thanks to robust demand across different categories and a low base in the same period last year due to the COVID-19 outbreak. However, PC shipment volumes were down 14% sequentially from Q4 2020 due to seasonality.

With a 24% market share, Lenovo took the first place again in Q1 2021, followed by HP at 23% and Dell at 17%. The overall momentum of the PC market was mainly driven by the growth in gaming notebooks and surging demand from the work-from-home and study-from-home segments, which stimulated Chromebook sales.

Global PC Shipments by Vendor, Q1 2021 (units in million)

Counterpoint Research - Q1 2021 Global PC shipments of top brands

Counterpoint Research - Q1 2021 global PC shipments market share

 

In Q2 2021, PC shipments will remain resilient with the pent-up demand from Q1 2021 extending to this quarter. We believe the top six vendors will continue to dominate the market with over 85% share.

Stepping into H2 2021, the momentum from the previous half will continue and reach a peak with back-to-school (some will be virtual classes) demand as well as the pent-up demand from H1 2021. Premium models with higher ASPs could take the lead via big promotions, which may squeeze out Chromebook’s market share in H2 to some extent. In all, we predict a 16.3% YoY growth in 2021, with global shipments reaching 333 million.

Lead time will ease only in late H1 2022

On the other hand, our checks suggest ODMs’ component inventory levels are relatively higher. But they are still facing shortages of key components like power management IC, display driver IC (with display panel) and CPUs. We have found a 20%-30% gap between orders (end-demand) and actual shipments (supply), largely owing to the component shortage beginning H2 2020.

Lead Time (weeks) for Key Components in PC/Notebook Segments

Counterpoint Research - Lead time of key PC components

PMIC and DDIC have faced the biggest gaps in the PC segment, with the lead time almost two times more than the normal before the COVID-19 outbreak. For PC CPUs, it was gently improving in late H1 in several sub-segment products. Some vendors also said the demand for audio codec IC and LAN chip remained unsatisfied and would continue to remain so in the second half of this year. WiFi SoC has also faced relatively low inventory levels, which will prove to be a drag on 2021 global PC shipments.

Since we do not see any meaningful foundry capacity expansion in H2 2021, it is unlikely that the lead time for key IC components would recover from the current status. Therefore, PC brands and ODMs cannot fully solve the shortage issue and clear the orders backlog. We expect the demand-supply gap to gradually normalize in late H1 2022.

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Pandemic Push: Tablet Shipments up 53% YoY in Q1 2021

Boston, Toronto, London, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – June 14, 2021

The global tablet market saw a big revival during the pandemic, emerging from a long slump. The market grew by 19% YoY in 2020 due to the increasing demand for large-screen mobile devices spurred by remote work, online education and extended stay-at-home orders. Continuing the growth trajectory, the market grew 53% YoY in Q1 2021 after reaching a five-year high in Q4 2020, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Tablet Market Report. However, in QoQ terms, it came down by 22% due to the quarter being an off-season period.

Major tablet makers ramped up production and shipments in 2020 to meet the increased demand. Apple and Samsung aggressively released and promoted new models. The two companies expanded their market shares throughout 2020. The top tablet makers seem to have benefited from less competition in the growing market. Many tablet players had earlier downsized or closed the business, while Huawei sharply lost its share due to the US ban.

Counterpoint Research Global Tablet Market Share by Brand, Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2021

Apple sold 33% more iPad units worldwide in 2020 than in 2019, and continued to lead the market, expanding its share to 37% in Q1 2021. Despite the off-season effect, Apple improved its performance in all major regions, particularly in Japan, where its sales continued to hit all-time highs. Senior Analyst Liz Lee said, “The basic iPad models accounted for 56% of the overall iPad shipments in Q1 2021. The iPad Air and iPad Pro series came next with 19% and 18% shares, respectively. Since consumers are constantly concerned about prices and portability, the latest iPad 8 emerged as the top-selling model. Launched in October 2020, the iPad Air 4 ranked second on the bestseller list as it was a huge hit with consumers looking for cost-effectiveness as well as high specifications.”

Lee added, “The recently launched M1 iPad Pro carries big changes compared to the previous models. The initial consumer response has been highly positive. But Apple is currently grappling with supply chain constraints such as chip shortages and production issues related to the Liquid Retina XDR panel. Accordingly, we expect the M1 iPad Pro shipments to be able to soar in Q3 backed by supply stabilization. This growth will be maintained in Q4, in line with the peak season effect.”

Our detailed report ‘Global Tablet Market Analysis, Q1 2021’ is available for subscribing clients.

Feel free to contact us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for questions regarding our latest research and insights, and for press enquiries.

Background:

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts:

Liz Lee

Counterpoint Research
press(at)counterpointresearch.com

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