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Comparing Telly’s Ad-driven Free TV with TCL’s QM8 QLED TV

With its TV, Telly wants to change the way users pick TVs and engage with content, by making the TV free and serving ads to monetize its viewer base.
By signing up, users receive a 55-inch 4K HDR TV with two unique hardware additions – a soundbar and a second screen, used exclusively to serve ads and display other content.
Telly falls short in providing a holistic entertainment experience due to its reliance on third-party platforms for content delivery.

In the summer of 2023, a new company in the US announced a beta program for its smart TV platform, Telly. With its TV, the company wants to change the way users pick TVs and engage with content, by making the TV free and serving ads to monetize its viewer base. After participating in the beta program for over six months, a comparison with a traditional smart TV, TCL’s QM8 in this case, is warranted.

A new way to buy TV

At the core of Telly’s value proposition is the fact that users signing up for the beta program receive the TV for free at their homes. As part of the agreement between the user and the company, certain usage requirements are laid out, such as placing the TV in a prominent position in the main TV consumption area.

By signing up, users receive a 55-inch 4K HDR TV with two unique hardware additions. The Telly TV features a soundbar integrated below the screen. Below that, Telly integrates a second screen, used exclusively to serve ads and display other content, from weather and sports to games. The combination of the three hardware components turns Telly into a much taller TV than users might be accustomed to.

Image Source: Telly

Second screen – the key to everything Telly wants to achieve

The key to Telly’s value proposition is the second screen. Not only is it used to manage multiple inputs, but it also always displays additional, dynamic content – similar to widgets on smartphone home screens. Users can pick stock information, weather information, sports scores and news to display below the main screen. The selection process happens in the mobile app after signing in.

In addition to displaying information and ads, the second screen can also be used to play games, like Flappy Birds, while the main screen displays other content. Music apps can also be similarly integrated into the second screen, allowing users to listen to music while watching content on the main screen on mute. The versatility of content combinations enabled by the two screens sets the TV apart from traditional TV configurations.

Comparison with TCL’s QM8 QLED Google TV

Comparing a device like the Telly TV with other TVs is always going to be a slightly uneven comparison. After all, Telly is in beta and many software updates have been pushed to the device to enhance its usability and eliminate bugs.

However, it is important to use a comparison to illustrate where additional improvements are necessary for such a platform to succeed, and to highlight the advantages traditional smart TVs have. Here, we compare the Telly TV with TCL’s QM8 QLED Google TV, which utilizes its in-house display technology combined with third-party platforms, like Google TV.

1. Display quality and brightness

The Telly TV and TCL QM8 both offer impressive display quality, but the QM8 takes the lead. It gets significantly brighter in both HDR and SDR content, making it ideal for well-lit rooms. The QM8’s Mini LED backlight technology provides more dimming zones, resulting in less blooming around bright objects. Telly’s display performance is impacted by the second screen, which gives off a constant source of light, and while contextual dimming has improved since launch, it can still be distracting.

2. Color gamut and volume

When it comes to color, the QM8 wins again. It boasts a wider color gamut and color volume, delivering vibrant and accurate colors. Whether watching movies or playing games, the QM8’s color reproduction is excellent.

3. Local dimming and reflection handling

The QM8 outperforms the Telly TV in local dimming. Its local dimming feature has many more zones, ensuring better contrast and deeper blacks. The difference between panels is noticeable.

4. Unique features

Telly’s second-screen widget responsiveness has been frustrating. Information on the widgets is frequently delayed, like for sports scores. This sluggish responsiveness defeats one of the key benefits of having the second screen always visible. It is an area where Telly could improve through software updates or optimization to enhance the overall user experience.

While TCL’s TV lacks unique hardware, the display quality, viewing angles and integrated content platform present an overall harmonic experience by giving users integrated access to the Google TV ecosystem of apps.

Image Source: TCL

Overall Telly experience is underwhelming

Telly falls short in providing a holistic entertainment experience due to its reliance on third-party platforms for content delivery. Unlike TCL’s QM8, the Telly TV lacks its own content platform, necessitating users to rely on various third-party devices to access streaming services. Not only does this require multiple remote controls, as third-party integration is not yet available, but also creates a two-fold user interface – Telly’s and which content streaming device is being used.

All this can lead to a fragmented user experience, where accessing different content requires navigating through multiple apps or interfaces. Moreover, the absence of a unified content platform may limit the availability of certain titles or features compared to platforms like Google TV, which offer a comprehensive library of content and integrated services.

Furthermore, without its own content platform, Telly may face challenges in providing tailored recommendations or personalized content suggestions based on user preferences and viewing habits. Platforms like Google TV leverage advanced algorithms and AI to deliver customized recommendations, enhancing the overall viewing experience.

The integrated backlighting on the TV is a nice touch but provides little value as it is not adaptive to scenes on the screen and stays in one color. Again, the lack of streaming platform integration shows itself as a limitation.

The front-facing soundbar is also a mixed bag. Great, if the user doesn’t have a dedicated bar, but the sound isn’t great. Integrating an external speaker is, once again, a work in progress at best.

North America TV market outlook for 2024

Telly launched its beta program with the ambition of signing up 500,000 users. Counterpoint expects the North American smart TV market to grow 1% in 2024, from the 47 million smart TVs sold in 2023. A completely exhausted beta program would still relegate Telly to being a small part of the overall TV market. For its business model to be viable, Telly would need to grow its user base significantly to create a big enough pool for advertisers to take notice, in a market dominated by Samsung, TCL and LG and platforms like Roku and Google TV.

Conclusion

In essence, while the Telly TV offers unique features such as a second screen and streaming flexibility, its reliance on third-party platforms for content delivery diminishes the overall user experience. In contrast, the TCL QM8’s integration of Google TV ensures a seamless and comprehensive entertainment experience, making it a better option for users seeking convenience, accessibility and quality content delivery.

Telly, at this stage, is a device platform for the adventurous, first-mover user who is willing to grow with the platform and participate in changing features and providing ongoing feedback. Time will tell whether more users are comfortable accepting a constant stream of advertising to pay for a new TV.

Pivotal Moment for PCs as Microsoft, Qualcomm & Partners Debut CoPilot+ GenAI Capabilities

Microsoft, along with partners, is set to completely redefine the PC experience by rearchitecting Windows to integrate generative AI-powered native CoPilot agents at every layer.
The stars are aligned for Microsoft to bring a step change to the PC experience with advancements in semiconductors driven by its partnership with Qualcomm.
Microsoft has announced CoPilot+, building upon its cloud-based CoPilot and CoPilot Pro to bring on-device native GenAI experiences powered by models (SLM, LLMs, LMs) running in the background.

The PC is one electronics category that is still called PC, unlike devices like phones, watches and TVs which have transitioned to smartphones, smartwatches and smart TVs. This has been possible because of years of research and development in software, AI and smart applications, making these devices disrupt the market. On the other hand, the PC has been relegated to the position of being a traditional productivity device with limited intelligence or “smartness”.

However, this year, the PC is going through a pivotal moment in becoming more intelligent. Microsoft, along with partners, is set to completely redefine the PC experience by rearchitecting Windows to integrate generative AI-powered native CoPilot agents at every layer, all of which are fully optimized with the silicon underneath. These generative AI-based applications will warrant advanced silicon in the form of compute as well as memory which is not only high performance, driving more than 40 TOPS computations powered by an NPU alongside CPU, GPU and advanced memory (min 16GB DRAM, 256GB SSD), but also highly power efficient.

Stars are aligned for Microsoft with right partners – Qualcomm and OpenAI

This is where the adoption of Arm-based silicon has been solving the power efficiency problems in a PC, as we have seen with the M-series Apple Silicon. However, Qualcomm has leapfrogged Apple, Intel and AMD to bring its leadership in low-power compute with Arm-based designs, along with years of experience and IP with AI Engine and its acquisition of Nuvia, to rearchitect a compute silicon for the next-generation AI PC or what Microsoft calls the CoPilot+ PC.

Source: Microsoft

The stars are aligned for Microsoft to bring a step change to the PC experience with advancements in semiconductors driven by its partnership with Qualcomm, which will help architect a completely differentiated, intelligent and efficient PC experience integrated with Microsoft’s own AI expertise and partnership with OpenAI to have a formidable answer to Apple’s Macs.

Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X Elite platforms, which were purposefully built for these next-generation AI PCs, are the only chipsets to power more than 20 designs across the top seven global PC OEMs at launch. Intel and AMD are behind and will follow up with more x86-based CoPilot+ designs later this year. But this is a significant win and entry into the PC space for Qualcomm, completely redefining the competitive landscape with a solid offering.

Source: Qualcomm

Unlocking powerful native intelligent experiences and more

Microsoft has announced CoPilot+, building upon its cloud-based CoPilot and CoPilot Pro to bring on-device native GenAI experiences powered by models (SLM, LLMs, LMs) running in the background. The data doesn’t leave the PC, boosting privacy and security. The CoPilot agents are built on OpenAI’s GPT4.

Some of the experiences that Microsoft has showcased are compelling on how GenAI can drive new use cases, automation and multiple assistants to boost productivity, creativity and security. Every Microsoft CoPilot+ PC is secured with the Pluton Security Processor out of the box and deeply integrated with personalized privacy controls. Some of the native CoPilot+ experiences Microsoft has showcased include:

Recall: This is a flagship CoPilot+ feature that leverages the “personal semantic index”, giving a PC “photographic memory” by remembering every instance of action, content and settings across any application, website or document stored on the device. This is done by more than 40 AI models always running in the background and taking snapshots of information to build a timeline and retrieve information quickly and intuitively when prompted.

This is a flagship GenAI feature showcasing the power of AI-powered semantic search and retrieval of information which is very personalized, private and intuitive, helping users save time and energy.

Source: Microsoft

Cocreate: This is another native GenAI-based CoPilot+ feature baked into specific applications such as Paint, where any ink strokes or text inputs can help generate images in near-real time, helping one brainstorm or express ideas, art and creativity. This is a glimpse of AI-powered photo editing and styling capabilities which when scaled with more context, intelligence and creativity can help generate great graphics and memories within seconds.

Source: Microsoft

Live captions: This is another meaningful GenAI feature of CoPilot+. It drives real-time live translations as the audio traverses through the PC across all the apps consistently. More than 40 languages can be translated into English subtitles and vice versa in a live or pre-recorded format and without needing the internet, with everything on the device being powered by the magical DSPs inside the NPU.

Growing native partner experiences

Several announcements have been made on native ARM64 experiences, apart from native Microsoft apps such as Chrome, Spotify, Zoom, WhatsApp, Blender, Affinity Suite and Slack. Many of them, such as Adobe Suite, CapCut, Cephable, Camo, DaVinci Resolve, djay Pro LiquidText and Luminar Neo, are leveraging the powerful 40 TOPS+ NPU to build multiple native GenAI experiences within their applications.

Microsoft has also announced Prism, a more powerful emulator for running native or x86 applications more efficiently and seamlessly. This should be the key moment for the Windows-on-Arm ecosystem to compete effectively with the incumbent Windows-on-x86’s dominance.

New Microsoft Surface portfolio includes CoPilot+ PCs

Microsoft rearchitected the new Surface and Surface Pro lineup powered by the Snapdragon X Elite platform as CoPilot+ PCs. A good refresh and many “first” specs.

Displays: 12.8” to 15” with the Surface Pro sporting an OLED HDR display for the first time, 120 Hz refresh rate, Dolby Vision IQ

Processors: Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite and X Elite Plus

Connectivity: Wi-Fi7/5G, two USB4 ports supporting three external 4K displays

Accessories: New Surface Pro keyboard can be used in both attached and detached mode with CoPilot key and includes the new Surface Slim Pen and quiet haptic touchpad.

Source: Microsoft

AI PC outlook and opportunities

CoPilot+ fundamentally changes how users interact with PCs. It makes their experience more intelligent, contextual and meaningful. This positions Microsoft and its ecosystem uniquely in the market, particularly when compared to Apple.
As CoPilot+ expands to enterprise PCs, the GenAI models will not only boost productivity in core applications like Microsoft Office, Azure AI and Dynamics CRM but also within solutions from partners such as Adobe, Cognizant, IBM, ServiceNow and Amdocs.
By integrating CoPilot+, enterprises can expect improved workflows, smarter task management and enhanced collaboration, ultimately driving innovation and efficiency.
According to our AI PC Tracker, GenAI-capable laptop PCs will account for more than three in four laptop PCs shipped in 2027.
As a result, the semiconductor content value for the PC segment will also grow almost 2x by 2027.
The Microsoft announcements show how users will use PCs that are more intelligent, contextual and meaningful, taking creativity, productivity and usage to a different level.
Ahead of Apple’s WWDC event in June, this is a very significant differentiation for Microsoft and its ecosystem versus Apple. At this point, we believe Qualcomm should be the main growth driver for Arm PCs along with GenAI capabilities in the short-to-mid term.

Huawei Expands its AI Ambition With Pangu Large Models

Huawei has underlined its pivotal new objective for 2024 – to capitalize on AI’s strategic prospects and enhance intelligence from networks to industries.
Huawei not only aims to dedicate resources towards fundamental AI research to foster continuous innovation but also aims to actively participate in the formation of global AI policies.
During the summit, Huawei revealed the current progress in training Pangu models with an impressive 230 billion parameters.

Huawei conducted its annual Huawei Analyst Summit (HAS) in Shenzhen, China, between April 17 and April 20. A team of analysts from Counterpoint attended this 21^st edition of HAS to get updates on the company’s progress, vision, and strategy for 2024 and beyond. We utilized the opportunity to also enquire about Huawei’s AI strategy during the keynote’s Q&A segment with Huawei Deputy Chairman and Rotating Chairman Eric Xu.

It was clear from Xu’s statements and the keynote that this year’s HAS marked a leap forward for Huawei from previous events. The company underlined its pivotal new objective for 2024 – to capitalize on AI’s strategic prospects and enhance intelligence from networks to industries. Huawei intends to harness AI to boost the appeal and performance of its products and services, optimize internal operations, and save as well as make more money by improving business and operational performance across industries. Huawei not only aims to dedicate resources towards fundamental AI research to foster continuous innovation but also aims to actively participate in the formation of global AI policies.

Pangu models take the spotlight

Pangu models, introduced by Huawei in 2021 as the world’s largest pre-trained Chinese large language models (LLMs) with over 100 billion parameters, are now advancing into their fourth iteration. During the summit, Huawei revealed the current progress in training Pangu models with an impressive 230 billion parameters.

Pangu for industry

Huawei is helping industries with its ready-to-call AI models in the form of Ascend AI-as-a-Service models. Also, Huawei has already successfully implemented its Pangu large models in industry-specific applications to drive value creation and solve major challenges. Notable deployments driving intelligent R&D and manufacturing include:

AI-assisted coding copilot that enhances R&D efficiency by 50%.
AI-augmented visual inspection systems in manufacturing that attain an accuracy rate of 99%.
Pangu Mining Model intelligently analyses the quality of stress relief drilling and assists rock-burst prevention personnel in quality verification in a coal mine.
It helps reduce manual review workload by 82% and delivers a 100% acceptance rate for rock burst prevention engineering work.

Pangu for science

Huawei also highlighted Pangu’s advanced simulation technologies for science:

Pangu-Weather brings a revolutionary increase in the speed of weather forecasting. It achieves a simulation velocity that is 10,000 times faster than current standards. Such a leap could drastically improve the precision and reliability of meteorological predictions, benefiting everything from agriculture to disaster preparedness.
Pangu Fluid focuses on fluid dynamics simulations, with speeds exceeding current capabilities by 20 times or more. Enhanced simulation speeds can be crucial for a range of applications, including aerodynamics, climate research and engineering.

Pangu Drug points toward a breakthrough in drug discovery with the generation of 100 million new molecules and a tenfold increase in the efficiency of drug design processes. Notably, it also claims a 50% increase in the success rate, potentially accelerating the pace of pharmaceutical innovation and therapeutic breakthroughs.

Next move: Pangu for device, Celia as super AI agent

Amid the surge of LLM chatbots like ChatGPT, Huawei is set to transform its smart assistant Celia into an advanced AI agent. This upgrade will be powered by its Pangu foundation models at the device level.

Celia will be equipped with capabilities for perceiving user intent, delivering anticipatory services, summarizing content, conducting intelligent image searches, and providing a superior AI experience in varied contexts such as work, fitness, entertainment, travel, and home settings.

Key takeaways

Huawei’s Pangu models distinctively target industrial applications, optimizing operations, product R&D and software engineering with remarkable precision and speed, setting them apart from broader-focus models like Baidu’s Ernie Bot and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen. However, this might limit their applicability in general-purpose generative AI models, where applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT excel.
Given Huawei’s well-established ecosystem, the success of Pangu models in industrial settings heavily relies on collaborations with its partners. This could restrain its ability to operate and scale independently.
Despite lagging behind SenseTime and Baidu in LLM and multimodal generative AI, Huawei is playing catchup, injecting more resources into fundamental AI research, especially in the areas of AI agent and world model building, the core technologies for realizing on-device chatbot and text-to-video applications.
Challenges remain in getting the required computing power for training larger AI models, as Huawei’s in-house Ascend 910B processors, while capable, still fall short of the superior performance levels offered by NVIDIA’s latest chips.
In summary, the 2024 edition of HAS unveiled Huawei’s aggressive AI strategy, marking a strategic pivot to capitalize on the capabilities of its Pangu foundation models, with significant ramifications across diverse industries.

Tesla Talks ‘Cyber Cab’, FSD Progress, Affordable Vehicle Pipeline as Q1 Revenues Fall 9% YoY

Tesla expects modest vehicle production and delivery growth in 2024 with Q1 Model 3 volumes down due to assembly line shutdowns to prepare for the next-generation Model 3.
Tesla’s robotaxi venture, referred to as “Cyber Cab” during the earnings call, will operate a Tesla-owned fleet of vehicles and allow Tesla owners to lend vehicles to the service.
Prices for the FSD (full self-driving) Supervised service were slashed during Q1 and it was offered for free for 30 days to ramp up data collection and miles trained on the FSD model. Talks with at least one other major OEM are underway to potentially license FSD Supervised.
Tesla expects that its future-generation vehicles will begin production before H2 2025. The lower-cost EV is still in the works at Tesla.

Tesla ended Q1 2024 with its total revenues down 9% YoY. While automotive revenues declined 13% YoY, energy generation and services revenues helped to marginally offset the automotive declines. Tesla reiterated that it was in between two large growth phases. The early growth phase benefited from the growth of deliveries and production of EVs, and the next phase will benefit from the ramping and implementation of robotaxi services. Preparation for the next growth phase materialized in increased capex, which was up 34% YoY in Q1 as investment into AI capabilities ramped up.

The battery electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturer continued to feel the impact of price cuts made in 2023. Operating margins continued to decline, reaching 5.5% from 11.4% last year and driving operating income down to $1.2 billion but offset by improvements in battery and raw material costs.

Several key topics were covered during the earnings call to provide more clarity, including upcoming plans and projects. This comes after Elon Musk denied news agency Reuters’ report on Tesla’s robotaxi and low-cost vehicle projects. Tesla clarified that future generation vehicles including a lower cost vehicle were still in the works, but the tone of comments suggest that leadership believes that robotaxi development is a more pressing matter right now.

Vehicle production slowdowns

Total vehicle production declined 2% YoY primarily due to changes being made to the production line ahead of the Model 3 update at Fremont. There were also production issues, including shutdowns, that stemmed from the arson attack on the Giga Berlin factory. While the Model 3 and Model Y production volumes fell during the quarter, other models’ production grew by 8% and partially offset lower volumes.

More concerning was a more dramatic drop in deliveries and growing inventories despite declining production. Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y fell 10% while overall deliveries fell 9%. Meanwhile, global days of supply grew 87% YoY. This was partially attributed to shipping delays caused by geopolitical instability in the Red Sea region.

Tesla did note it benefits from an industry-wide shift toward hybrid vehicle manufacturing as it would receive a larger share of appropriated funds from the Inflation Reduction Act’s allotment for electric vehicle production. It also noted that cost savings from battery production would continue with the declining cost of raw materials. Notions of the potential sale of 4680 batteries were shut down by Tesla as it does not see a reasonable path toward meaningfully converting those sales to net income with industry-wide price erosion. It would rather produce batteries for its own vehicles at this time.

Strategic focus shifts to FSD 12.3 and robotaxi development

Tesla announced that over one billion miles had been driven with FSD. Tesla recently cut FSD prices to $99/month to entice more Tesla owners to adopt the service. This not only had a positive impact on service revenues but, more importantly, also ramped up data collection for the service to improve it more rapidly. Tesla is also offering one month of FSD for free with new vehicle purchases and leases.

To process all this data, Tesla is investing heavily in its AI training capacity, with 35,000 H100 NVIDIA GPUs dedicated to FSD training. It anticipates adding another 50,000 H100 GPUs for training purposes throughout the rest of 2024.

Tesla is open to licensing FSD, with one major OEM negotiation in the works according to Musk. There may be more than one OEM striking a deal to license FSD in 2024. This would help further diversify Tesla’s revenue streams and may impact LiDAR adoption rates with more OEMs choosing to lean on visual processing.

The company leadership provided some clarity on the robotaxi strategy during the Q1 2024 earnings call. Tesla noted that it would operate an in-house fleet of vehicles for the service on its own platform while allowing Tesla owners to lend their vehicles for ride-hailing at their leisure as passive income. Early-look mockups of the app displayed features such as remote vehicle climate control and entertainment control.

Outlook on future vehicles and Supercharger Network developments

It was noted that more announcements on future vehicle development and production would come after the August 8 robotaxi announcement. Some further color was provided stating that Tesla was moving up its production timeline for a potential affordable EV during H1 2025. This was not firm but was encouraging to those hoping for an earlier arrival of a $25,000 Tesla. Future-generation Tesla vehicles are expected to be produced on existing manufacturing lines.

While these updates were provided during the earnings call, it has become clear that FSD and the robotaxi venture are taking up most of Tesla’s focus in the near term to speed up time to market. In the days following the earnings announcement, Tesla made further workforce reductions which largely impacted the Supercharger Network team and followed charging network project cancellations earlier in the quarter. While Tesla is seeing increased service revenues from other OEMs adopting the North American Charging Standard (NACS) ports and joining the Supercharger Network, the expansion of the network may hamper potential growth in this revenue stream with fewer site installations and potential downtime increases.

Key takeaways

It is becoming more and more clear that Tesla is going all in on FSD and its Cyber Cab venture. The majority of R&D expenses will be allocated as such and Tesla is committed to scaling its data centers to accommodate the growing amounts of data it is using to build out its model.
Tesla leadership was careful about the way it described models in the pipeline. The officials continuously used the phrase “future vehicle lineup” or a variation of it to describe the vehicles expected to begin production in early 2025.
With hybrids gaining market share over BEVs in Q1 2024, Tesla saw declines in production and deliveries YoY as well as sequentially. An “affordable EV” might help reverse that trend but Tesla is not committing to a timeline for it.
The recent workforce reductions have been aggressive and could lead to a 20% reduction in the aggregate round or labor actions. This includes nearly the whole Supercharger team. The move comes as demand has increased within the network with more OEMs adopting the NACS and gaining access to the network. This could lead to complications with downtime and delayed expansion of the network.

Podcast #76: GenAI – The Next Big Thing in Smartphones

Generative AI (GenAI) is emerging as a major trend in the tech industry, finding its way into the latest smartphones and PCs. However, on-device AI has been around for a few years now, and there is some confusion regarding the definition of a smartphone with AI and a GenAI smartphone.

In this latest episode of ‘The Counterpoint Podcast’, host Mohit Agrawal is joined by Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, to talk about GenAI smartphones. We discuss our definition of GenAI smartphones, potential impact on pricing and upgrade cycle, role of chipmakers, OEM strategies and our forecast. In this discussion, we also touch upon hardware requirements, ecosystem players that are driving GenAI experiences, regional differences and much more.

Click the play button to listen to the podcast

You can read the podcast transcript here.

Key takeaways from the discussion

Counterpoint’s definition of GenAI smartphone

• We define a GenAI smartphone as a mobile device that leverages large-scale, pre-trained GenAI models to create original content or perform context-aware tasks.
• We expect such devices to have multimodal capabilities, allowing them to process text, image, voice and other inputs to generate a variety of output and enable a user experience that is fluid and seamless.
• We also expect the hardware specifications of such devices to evolve as the technology advances. But at present, a device should have hardware capabilities that are comparable to or exceed the performance of current flagship smartphones to effectively run GenAI models.

Hardware requirements

• A GenAI smartphone should have a processor built on the latest process node designed to undertake AI workloads, like Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) or Neural Processing Units (NPUs).
• It should also support faster hardware such as LPDDR5 RAM, UFS 3.1 storage, Wi-Fi 6E or 5G connectivity, and other advanced connectivity options.

GenAI smartphone vs phone with AI

• A GenAI smartphone can create original content and perform a wider range of tasks.
• A regular smartphone with AI focuses on automating tasks.

Impact of GenAI smartphones on pricing, upgrades

• It is uncertain if GenAI will impact the pricing of smartphones, but a slight increase is possible due to powerful hardware.
• OEMs can explore subscription models for advanced AI features.
• Widespread adoption of GenAI features could help drive upgrades.
• User experience, killer use cases, awareness and effective marketing will be key for consumer adoption.

Ecosystem players, regional differences

• Chipset makers like Qualcomm and MediaTek are doing a great job in creating awareness about the GenAI capabilities of chipsets.
• Smartphone maker Samsung has partnered with Google to bring Gemini LLM features to Galaxy devices.
• Xiaomi is developing its own MILM based on 13 billion parameters.
• OPPO has released its AndesGPT based on a 180-billion parameter model.
• User experiences may vary by region, as LLM developers will work on features catering to local users in different languages and dialects.

Counterpoint’s GenAI smartphone forecast

• Counterpoint Research believes GenAI smartphone share will reach 11% of the overall smartphone market in 2024, and 43% by 2027.
• This translates into roughly 550 million units by 2027. The installed base could surpass one billion by 2027.
• Starting now with premium smartphones, GenAI features, we believe, will diffuse to lower price tiers by 2026, especially the $300-$500 band.

Analyst takeaways

• Smartphones of the future will be more personalized to cater to individual needs and preferences, and AI will play a central role in driving these personalized experiences.
• As OEMs differentiate themselves on AI positioning, the key here will be the evolution of AI use cases. Currently, these use cases include enhanced imaging capabilities, translation features, improved app experiences, content recommendations, creating more personalized content, and more.
• These use cases will evolve as the large language models (LLMs) will continue to grow in both size and efficiency.
• Counterpoint believes that the integration of edge (mobile devices) and cloud will be the mainstream model for GenAI in smartphones, and OEMs with an equally strong play in software capabilities and supported by strategic industry partnerships are likely to stay ahead of the competition.

Podcast chapter markers

01:00 – Tarun defines how smartphones with AI features are different from GenAI smartphone.

05:19 – Tarun talks about LLMs and how Counterpoint is defining them with respect to GenAI experiences.

08:15 – How could hardware requirements for GenAI affect smartphone pricing? Tarun explains.

12:05 – Tarun weighs in on whether GenAI can drive smartphone upgrades and shorten replacement cycles.

15:50 – Apple is currently missing from the GenAI space, but what to look forward to with the upcoming WWDC developer conference.

18:14 – Tarun talks about the role of ecosystem players, from chipmakers to smartphone OEMs and developers, and what they are doing in the GenAI space.

22:35 – Can GenAI experiences differ from one region to another, to cater to local audience? Tarun weighs in on regional efforts.

24:30 – Tarun talks about Counterpoint’s forecast with respect to GenAI smartphones.

Also available for listening/download on:

GlobalFoundries’ Q1 2024 Revenue Down 16% YoY, Decline Limited by Automotive Growth

Allocation of manufacturing capacity to diversify footprint targeted to markets such as automotive and premium smart mobile applications.
Higher volumes and ramp-up of GF’s designs at key customers to drive sequential growth.
Premium smart mobile applications and automotive segment to drive QoQ growth in 2024.

GlobalFoundries’ (GF) revenue fell 16% YoY in Q1 2024 to reach $1.5 billion, hurt by weak demand in the Communications Infrastructure and Data Centre, and lower-end Consumer and Home Electronics segments. Revenue was also constrained by weak global macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical instability and elevated inventory levels. However, the decline in revenue was limited by higher ASPs, premium tier mix growth, continued content growth and value capture in 5G RF front-end content along with strong growth in the Automotive segment.

Commenting on GF’s funding and innovation, CEO Thomas Caulfield said, “As pockets of the semiconductor industry begin to emerge from the inventory correction, GlobalFoundries is driving foundry innovation and differentiation for customers across their essential end-markets.”

Caulfield further added that GF has received awards from both the US Department of Commerce and New York State to expand manufacturing capability in the US, which will complement the company’s unique global capacity offering.

Senior Analyst Ashwath Rao said, “The funding will help expand GF’s existing fab by adding critical technologies and will be utilized to construct a new facility to meet customer demand for US-made essential chips across a broad range of markets and applications including automotive, aerospace, defense, and AI. Further, the investments will aid GF in modernizing and expanding its manufacturing capacity and leverage the site’s existing infrastructure and ecosystem, enabling a fast and efficient path from construction to production.”

Caulfield added, “GF has accelerated diversification in the last five to six years and made sure each global site has a diversification not just having a global footprint but also a broad range of technologies so that customers can source globally and locally and ensure GFs facilities stay full. The rate and pace of new LTAs have slowed down in certain end markets as customers are working through inventory in the channels.”

Rao added, “Prioritizing diversification of the manufacturing footprint through accelerated transfer of technology will offer customers more choices across multiple markets and enable broader market participation. Enabling customers to source globally and locally will help GF facilities to remain fully utilized, driving revenue growth in the long-term. LTAs are an important feature of GF’s business model which provides a level of certainty of both supply and demand, durability, and greater visibility and profitability in a difficult market backdrop.”

In the long term, infrastructure changes in the data center, especially the increased adoption of silicon photonics solutions for GPUs, NPUs, and CPUs will drive substantial growth in communications and data center revenues. With power delivery for data centers becoming important, GF’s 12 nm and BCD technology and the addition of GaN manufacturing into the fab’s capabilities will further boost the company’s leadership competencies in making chips for high-power applications driving revenue growth in the long-term.

Source: GlobalFoundries, Counterpoint Research

Results Summary:

Revenue Highlights:

GF’s revenue fell by 16% YoY in Q1 2024 dragged down by uncertainty in the global market along with high inventory levels in the IoT and Automotive segments. Meanwhile, the inventory level of Smart Mobile Devices has been stabilizing.
GF shipped 0.46 million wafers (300mm Equivalent) in Q1 2024.
Automotive revenue grew 48% YoY due to higher volumes and ramp up of GF’s designs at key customers.
Automotive accounted for 17% of GF’s total revenue in Q1 and the growth is likely to continue in 2024.
Automotive and Smart Mobile Devices revenue accounted for more than 60% of the total revenue.
Reduced inventory levels seen in Smart Mobile Devices, Automotive, and IoT inventory are still higher than normal.

Segment-wise Updates:

Smart Mobile Devices:
- Smart Mobile Devices revenue declined by 2% YoY. This was offset by the increasing demand for premium smartphones and moderating inventory levels. The segment is expected to see a pick-up in demand in H2 2024.
- Higher ASPs, premium tier mix along with increasing value capture in the 5G RF front-end system, as well as imaging and display application limited the revenue decline in the segment.
Communications Infrastructure and Data Center
- Communications and Data Center saw the biggest decline in revenue, down 66% YoY. It accounted for 8% of the total revenue during the quarter.
- The transition to GenAI across sectors will increase the demand for high bandwidth communication and efficient power conversion systems driving revenue growth.
Home and IoT
- Home and Industrial IoT saw a decline of 19% YoY, as the industry is reeling under the pressure of excess inventory, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
- Within IoT, the Aerospace and Defense segment performed well which limited the revenue decline.
Automotive:
- The Automotive segment was the primary growth driver during the quarter, rising 48% YoY, driven by strong growth in volumes, ASP, and dynamics mix as semiconductor content and features increased across the vehicle architecture, including the increased adoption of connected cars.
- The growth of processing, sensors and power management is expected to contribute to revenue growth in the segment.
- Revenue growth in the Automotive end-market is expected to continue throughout 2024.

Key Developments, Q1 2024:

Key design wins in 40 nm image sensor processor technology and 130 nm BCD power platforms for critical ADAS, motor controllers, and sensor applications at auto-grade standards is expected to drive revenue growth.
22FDX mmWave technology for smartphone connectivity has ramped to volume production and design wins with OLED display driver makers ramping in 2024.
Received $1.5 billion from the Department of Commerce as part of the US CHIPS and Science Act in addition to over $600 million proposed by New York State under its Green CHIPS program.

Long-term Agreements:

Closed key design wins for 40 Image Sensor Processing (ISP) technologies and 130 PCD power platforms for ADAS, MCU and sensor applications for the automotive segment.
Closed key design win for 22 FDX+ Platform which will be useful for high-speed wireless interfaces for IoT platforms.
Design win for 130 NSX platforms which will support ground terminal infrastructure for satellite communications.
Extended one of the largest LTAs with Infineon in Q1 2024 for automotive grade 40 nm microcontrollers.

CapEx:

CapEx for Q1 2024 was $0.23 billion. GF’s CapEx for full-year 2024 is expected to be around $700 million.

Outlook 2024:

Challenges in terms of macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical uncertainties, and inventory normalization remain. A slower rate of inventory reduction will persist through 2024.
Automotive demand is likely to moderate in 2024 while FY revenue will see YoY growth in 2024.
Growth in Home and IoT to be flat with demand picking up in Q4 2024.
Smart Mobile Devices inventory will begin to normalize through H1 2024 with demand picking up in H2 2024.
Inventory in the IoT segment is expected remain elevated in H1 2024 and will likely bounce back in H2 2024. Speed, security and inference at the edge will drive the next-gen analog and mixed-signal technology.
Communication, Infrastructure and Data Center segment to remain constrained in 2024 due to sustained node migration to single-digit nanometres processors.
Smart mobile devices, automotive, aerospace and defense to perform better in 2024.

Counterpoint, MediaTek and Industry Partners Release Generative AI Phone Industry Whitepaper

Counterpoint and MediaTek jointly released a whitepaper defining Generative AI Phones.
Though on-device large AI model is a must, Device+Cloud hybrid mode will be the mainstream for deploying generative AI on smartphones.
Counterpoint expects the installed base of generative AI phones to exceed 12 billion by 2027.

The integration of generative AI technology is undoubtedly the main theme of the current and future development of the smartphone industry. It will open a new chapter in the evolution of smartphone intelligence and inject new momentum into the continued prosperity of the mobile internet ecosystem. In this context, Counterpoint and MediaTek, together with industry partners, have released the Generative AI Phone Industry Whitepaper which proposes the concept of generative AI phones and defines the necessary features of such devices.

On-device or hybrid processing of foundational models: This enables the smartphone to perform complex generative AI tasks without relying solely on cloud-based servers.
Multimodal capabilities: This allows the device to process text, images, voice and other forms of input to generate a variety of outputs, with use cases such as translations, image generation and video generation.
A user experience that is fluid and seamless: This enables the device to provide natural interactions and intuitive responses to the user’s inputs and requests.
Hardware specifications that are capable of supporting the above capabilities: These include but are not limited to a processor built on the latest process node designed to undertake AI workload leveraging integrated or standalone neural network processing units (such as APU/NPU/TPU), large memory capacity with high bandwidth, stable and high-speed connectivity options, and hardware-level and software-level security solutions.

Counterpoint’s Definition of Generative AI Phone

Source: Counterpoint Research

The whitepaper also delves into the ecosystem of generative AI phones, discussing the AI strategies of various stakeholders, including chip vendors, smartphone OEMs, large AI model providers, and application developers, as well as the technology landscape of both hardware and software for generative AI phones. It also presents Counterpoint’s predictions on the development of generative AI phones. Counterpoint expects the installed base of generative AI phones to exceed 1 billion by 2027 as generative AI technology achieves widespread adoption. This rapid increase is the result of powerful mobile computing platforms, a rich array of AI models of varying sizes, a complete set of supporting tools, and the active exploration and ever-increasing applications of AI by various industry stakeholders.

Generative AI Phone Installed Base Forecast

(In Million Units)

Source: Counterpoint Research

Generative AI Phone Industry Whitepaper

Counterpoint Quarterlies: Q1 2024

The Wearables Edition report compiles all our Wearables-related notes published during Q1 2024. It provides you with data, insights and deeper look into what our analysts were thinking about during the quarter.

Counterpoint Quarterlies Q1 2024

Counterpoint Quarterlies aggregate important notes we’ve published during the past three months – all organized by research area. We publish these Quarterlies across 5 technology verticals – Smartphones, Semiconductors, IoT, Automotive and Wearables.

The IoT Edition report compiles all our IoT-related notes published during Q1 2024. It provides you with data, insights and deeper look into what our analysts were thinking about during the quarter.

Wearables Q1 2024
IoT Q1 2024
Automotive Q1 2024
Semiconductors Q1 2024
Smartphones Q1 2024

Counterpoint Quarterly

Wearables Q1 2024

Published date: May 7th 2024

PDF | 26 pages

Table of Contents

• OnePlus Watch 2: Big Upgrades, Competitive Pricing

• Apple’s XR Investment Is An Insurance Policy

• Sony WF-1000XM5 Review: Epitome of Premium Sound with Compact, Lighter Design and Improved Battery Life

• XREAL Air 2 Pro First Impressions: Promising Entry-level XR Glasses

• India Smartwatch Market Sees Record Shipments in 2023 With 50% YoY Growth

• XR Gets Apple Vision Pro Boost, Market Set to Bounce Back in 2024

• Global XR (AR & VR Headsets) Market Share: Quarterly

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Counterpoint Quarterly

IoT Q1 2024

Published date: April 30th 2024

PDF | 39 pages

Table of Contents

• 2.2 Billion IoT Connections Expected to be on eSIM by 2030

• Podcast #73: Thales – Driving Digital Security, Identity Innovations in a Connected World

• Thales, G+D, IDEMIA Pacesetters in 2023 eSIM Provisioning Rankings

• G+D, Thales, Idemia Pacesetters in 2023 eSIM Enablement Rankings

• Qualcomm Posts Higher Than Guided Q4 Revenues Driven by Smartphones, Automotive

• Amid Waning Demand, Cellular IoT Module Market Faces Another Challenging Quarter in Q3 2023

• MWC 2024 Day 3: Concepts Rule the Day

• MWC 2024 Day 2: TECNO’s Robot Dog, Samsung’s Galaxy Ring, Lenovo’s Concept Laptop and More

• MWC 2024 Day 1: Major Focus on AI Capabilities in Devices

• Counterpoint Conversations: Thales Unveils Innovative Solution for Effortless eSIM Transfer

• Global Cellular IoT Module Shipments Record First-ever Annual Decline

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Counterpoint Quarterly

Automotive Q1 2024

Published date: April 23rd 2024

PDF | 36 pages

Table of Contents

• Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Market Share: Q1 2022 – Q4 2023

• Top Automotive OEMs Collaborate for Faster ADAS Improvement

• Strong Automotive Performance Helps GlobalFoundries Limit FY2023 Revenue Fall to 9% YoY

• Guest Post: Digital Automotive – Radio Wars

• Tesla Guides Weak 2024 EV Sales, Other Segments Set to Surge

• CES 2024 Day 2: Intel, AMD’s Auto Push, Honda’s EV Plans, Amazon’s Smart Home Initiative • CES 2024 Day 1: AI PCs, AI Cars, AI TVs

• Two-thirds of Cars Sold in Q3 2023 Featured Embedded Connectivity

• Qualcomm Posts Higher Than Guided Q4 Revenues Driven by Smartphones, Automotive

• MediaTek Delivers Strong Q4 2023 Performance as Smartphone Market Recovers

• Denso’s Q4 2023 Revenue Up 14% YoY, FY2024 Appears Bright

• HERE, TomTom Lead Location Platform Effectiveness Rankings

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Counterpoint Quarterly

Semiconductors Q1 2024

Published date: April 9th 2024

PDF | 33 pages

Table of Contents

• NVIDIA GTC 2024: Analysts’ Insights and Industry Trends

• Counterpoint Conversations: Micron’s UFS 4.0 Memory Enabling Next-Gen AI Experiences at the Edge

• LeapFrog Semiconductor develops RISC-V based AI-enhanced DSP for Wireless Infrastructure

• ASML Records Highest-ever Revenue in 2023; High-NA EUV to Drive Long-term Growth

• CES 2024 Day 2: Intel, AMD’s Auto Push, Honda’s EV Plans, Amazon’s Smart Home Initiative

• Survey: 77% of Smart Device Users in India Consider Chipsets Highly Important in Shaping Experience

• Global Semiconductor Revenues Decline 8.8% in 2023; AI Promises Gains in 2024

• Strong Automotive Performance Helps GlobalFoundries Limit FY2023 Revenue Fall to 9% YoY

• Global Smartphone AP (Application Processor) Shipments Market Share: Q3 2022 To Q4 2023

• Top 5 Wafer Fab Equipment Makers’ Revenue Declined 1% YoY in 2023; ASML on Top

• Global Semiconductor Foundry Revenue Share: Q4 2023

• Infographic: Top 7 Semiconductor Companies by Revenues, Q4 2023

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Counterpoint Quarterly

SmartphoneS Q1 2024

Published date: April 2nd 2024

PDF | 105 pages

Table of Contents

• Counterpoint Conversations: Sonim’s Solution-oriented Approach Driving Rugged Handsets Ecosystem

• Counterpoint Conversations: OnePlus Focusing on User-centric AI to Redefine Smartphone Experience

• Betting Big on AI, HONOR Unveils New Devices, Technologies

• MWC 2024 Day 3: Concepts Rule the Day

• MWC 2024 Day 1: Major Focus on AI Capabilities in Devices

• Infographic: Q4-2023 | Smartphones | Mobile Market Monitor

• Samsung Galaxy S24 with Galaxy AI Takes On-device Intelligent Experiences Mainstream

• HONOR’s Latest AI Feature Puts Flagships Into New Orbit

• OPPO Find X7 Series Sets AI, Photography Benchmarks for Flagship Smartphones

• OPPO Reno11 Pro 5G Photographic Review: A Pioneer of Portrait Photography for Mainstream Users

• vivo Bets on Generative AI to Elevate the Smartphone Experience

• S24 vs S23 Series YoY Growth Positive On GenAI Support, Europe and US Demand

• China Smartphone Sales Fall 7% YoY in First 6 Weeks of 2024; Double-digit Declines for Apple, OPPO, vivo

• South Africa’s Smartphone Shipments Surge 29% YoY in 2023 as Market Recovery Gathers Pace

• Indonesia’s 2023 Smartphone Shipments Down 6%

• Apple Dazzles in Thailand With a 26% YoY Growth in 2023

• Bangladesh Smartphone Shipments Decline 25% YoY in 2023; vivo Takes Top Spot

• Colombia’s Smartphone Shipments Down 8.4% YoY in Worst Fourth Quarter Since 2020

• MEA Smartphone Shipments Surge 30% YoY in Q4 2023; TECNO Surpasses Samsung for First Time

• Europe Smartphone Shipments Down 3% YoY in Q4 2023, Signs of Recovery Ahead

• Cumulative 5G Smartphone Shipments Cross 2-Billion Mark

• US Smartphone Sales Fall 10% YoY in Jan to Reach Almost Half of 2017 Peak

• In a First, Apple Captures Top 7 Spots in Global List of Top 10 Best-selling Smartphones

• LATAM Smartphone Market Down 3% YoY in 2023, But Set for Growth as Competition Rises

• Survey: realme Scores High Among Indonesia’s Young Smartphone Consumers

• iPhone Hits Record 50% Revenue Share on US, India and Emerging Markets; China Risks Remain

• US Smartphone Shipments Recover 8% YoY in Q4 2023 as Apple Market Share Reaches Highest Since Q4 2020

• India Smartphone Market Remains Flat in 2023; Apple Shipments Cross 10 Million for First Time

• China Smartphone Sales Snap 10-Quarter Declining Streak, Up 6.6% YoY in Q4

• Global Premium Smartphone Market Continues to See Record Sales in 2023

• Counterpoint Conversations: Humane’s Ai-Pin Reimagines Computing with an AI-Powered OS

• Qualcomm Posts Higher Than Guided Q4 Revenues Driven by Smartphones, Automotive

• MediaTek Delivers Strong Q4 2023 Performance as Smartphone Market Recovers

• Global Smartphone AP (Application Processor) Shipments Market Share: Q3 2022 To Q4 2023

• Apple iPhone Market Share: Quarterly

• Q4 2023 Global Smartphone Sales, Top 10 Best Sellers

• iOS vs Android Quarterly Market Share

• Global Smartphone Shipments Share Last Eight Years Of Winners & Losers

• Global Smartphone Shipments 2011 – 2023

• US Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q3 2022 – Q4 2023)

• China Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q3 2022 – Q4 2023)

• Global Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q1 2022 – Q4 2023)

• India Smartphone Shipments Market Data (Q3 2022 – Q4 2023)

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Apple’s Services Revenue Grows to Reach Highest Ever Share as Product Revenues Decline

Apple’s Q1 2024 (fiscal Q2 2024) revenues declined 4% YoY. While the revenues from products declined 10% YoY, revenue from services grew impressive 14% YoY reaching the highest ever share (26%) of Apple’s total revenue. This was also the first time that services captured over one fourth of Apple’s total revenue in the first quarter.

Commenting on the results, Varun Mishra, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Noted, “With iPhones facing competition in China, record low upgrade rates in the US, a difficult compare from last year due to lock down effects, and segments like iPads and AirPods due for refresh, the overall product revenues declined, as expected. However, there are some upsides as well. Services revenues continues to show healthy growth and Apple’s reach in emerging markets continues to rise, which could be a long-term growth opportunity for the entire Apple ecosystem. Gross margins also increased to reach the highest levels in over a decade. This was driven by higher contribution of services as well as a better product mix for iPhones with 15 Pro series performing better than its predecessors”.

Apple Revenues by Product Categories

Source: Counterpoint Research Apple 360

Results Analysis:

iPhone: Revenues down 10% YoY. According to Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, shipments were down 13% YoY with Global smartphone shipment market share reducing from 21% in Q1 2023 to 17% in Q1 2024. The quarter was also a difficult compare because of 14 Pro’s supply shifting to Q1 2023 because of COVID lockdowns in Q4 2022 affecting manufacturing facilities in China.
Mac revenues grew 4% YoY. The resilience was supported by M3 base models and also a recovery of the overall PC industry.
iPad revenues declined 17% YoY. The segment is due for refresh with no new models launching in 2023. We will see new iPads launching in Q2 2024, which will drive some growth in the coming quarters.
Wearables Home and Accessories revenues declined 4% YoY even though Vision Pro sales were likely included in the segment, indicating a steeper decline in other products in the division.
Services: Continues to be a bright spot for Apple with 14% revenue growth YoY. It’s also an important segment for bottom line growth considering high services margins. Paying subscribers grew by double digits, reaching an all-time high. We also saw Google and Amazon’s subscription businesses deliver impressive numbers, suggesting customers are rewarding product bundles with high value. According to Counterpoint Research’s Apple 360, Services is likely to capture one fourth of Apple revenues in 2025.

Outlook:

Apple does face a few headwinds in China. We will likely see Apple being more aggressive in the China market, especially during the 618 festival in June, which will help drive some sales. At the same time, Apple will continue to increase its footprint in emerging markets. Investments around financing solutions, expansion of trade-in programs etc., will also support growth especially in emerging markets. Revenues for iPads and AirPods are also likely to grow in the coming quarters owing to product refreshes. Services segment is also expected to continue to grow in double digits in the coming quarters.

Another aspect is the increasing popularity of Generative AI in smartphones, and Apple’s absence thus far. Commenting on the Generative AI, Tarun Pathak, Director at Counterpoint Research noted, “Apple has been late to GenAI as compared to its competition. However, this has not been a new trend with Apple. It has a history of bringing new features later to the market. Also, we have not seen iOS users jumping ship due to AI features. The launch of GenAI capabilities in the Apple ecosystem will have a large value add due to its tightly knit nature. It will be a welcome move by over 2-billion active device users. We are already seeing Apple is likely working on external partnerships to bring GenAI to its devices. We think Apple’s GenAI will help drive iPhone upgrades.”

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