The challenges and solutions related to memory design, and the emerging trends in memory technology are shaping the future of high-performance computing and the competitive landscape.

Competitive Dynamics:

• Samsung falls behind: Samsung lags in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) due to multiple inefficiencies, i.e. conservative move to advanced test and package, focusing on costs relative to more challenging customer demand in heat and power.
  
• SK continues to lead: SK Hynix (SK) has taken significant efforts to meet NVIDIA's requirements for power and heat limitations. This includes memory cell design, back-end in the stacking stage, and adding logic circuits (IVC, Internal Voltage Down Converter) to the base die. SK's flexible culture has allowed it to take risks and achieve desired results.
  
• Micron catches up: Micron's delayed introduction of HBM until 2025 is due to its support of a similar high-bandwidth memory called 3D Cube. However, Micron is entering directly into HBM3e. Like SK, Micron uses 1b DRAM cells for HBM, actively adopts bonding equipment verified by SK, and actively adds logic circuits (IVC) to the base die to reduce internal voltage.
  
• Samsung set for a comeback: Samsung will likely see a slow comeback, leaving a gap open for competition to cash in. Samsung targets to revise HBM3e by the end of Q1 2025 with more logic circuits in the base die to control power and heat at the expense of die size, similar to peers. If it is successful, Samsung’s HBM shipment estimates may increase from the conservative 8 bn-9 bn Giga bit to 11 bn-12 bn Giga bit in 2025.
  
• China HBM: China aims to manufacture HBM3 domestically by 2025. From GPU manufacturing to HBM DRAM cells, base dies, and OSAT, China can source everything domestically. However, challenges are expected to increase from 2026, as US regulation on advanced tools will likely prevent next-generation nodes from delivering speed, heat, and power at reasonable yields.

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