• We forecast BYD to claim the top spot in global BEV unit sales in 2025 with a 15.7% market share, driven by scale, innovation, and strong government backing.
• BYD’s newly unveiled ultra-fast charging system outperforms Tesla’s Supercharger and sets a new industry benchmark.
• BYD’s vertically integrated supply chain enables competitive pricing and operational efficiency.
• Tesla faces mounting headwinds, including reputational challenges, geopolitical risks, and softening sales in key markets.

Seoul, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, London, San Diego, New Delhi, Taipei, Tokyo – April 02, 2025

BYD is projected to overtake Tesla for the first time as the world’s leading battery electric vehicle (BEV) brand in 2025, capturing a 15.7% global market share, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Passenger EV Forecast. The milestone reflects BYD’s aggressive expansion enabled by its tech leadership and vertically integrated production model, all bolstered by strong domestic policy support.

BYD’s recent introduction of an ultra-fast charging system marks a pivotal leap in BEV performance, aimed at addressing consumer concerns around charging speed and convenience. Key features include:

• 1,000V Electrical Architecture: Enables high-efficiency energy transfer with reduced losses.
• 10C Charging Rate Batteries: Delivers up to 400 km (249 miles) of range in just 5 minutes.
• Silicon Carbide (SiC) Power Chips: Enhances charging efficiency and heat resistance.
• Blade Battery Technology: BYD’s proprietary LFP-based Blade Battery is optimized for safety, durability, and ultra-fast charging.

Abhik Mukherjee, Research Analyst at Counterpoint, stated, “The system can deliver 400 km of range in just 5 minutes, setting a new industry benchmark, far outpacing Tesla’s Supercharger, which adds about 275 km in 10 minutes. This technological leap is expected to significantly ease consumer concerns around charging time and boost EV adoption by reducing charging anxiety.”

In contrast, Tesla is confronting multiple challenges. Its public image has taken a hit due to CEO Elon Musk’s political positioning which has prompted a consumer backlash in key US and Europe markets. Our early 2025 data have already been showing softening sales in these regions.

Geopolitical tensions, including escalating US-China trade disputes and increased tariffs on Chinese EV components, are further disrupting Tesla’s supply chain. These factors, combined with delayed product launches and intensifying competition, are expected to hamper Tesla’s performance through 2025.

Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee notes, “CEO Elon Musk has scored somewhat of an own goal against Tesla and we are about to catch a glimpse of how much the company’s sales were hurt in Q1 2025. This is a big opportunity for BYD and if they deliver on the fast-charging promise, this could be the turning point for BYD and the China BEV story globally.”

BYD’s strength lies in its vertical integration. It controls key components such as batteries, motors, and electronic systems through its subsidiaries, and is now expanding into charging infrastructure. This end-to-end control is expected to enable BYD to offer competitively priced vehicles without sacrificing margins, further reinforcing its market leadership.

Notes:
*BEV here refers to Battery Electric Vehicle.
*Sales here refer to wholesale figures, i.e. deliveries out of factories by respective brands.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.