• Level 3 passenger vehicles are likely to arrive in meaningful global numbers this year.
• China will be the main driver with its Level 3 passenger vehicle installed base exceeding 1 million by 2026 and shipments reaching 10% share by 2028.
• Mercedes is the first mover globally, but Chinese OEMs are approaching fast.
• Government support, issuance of multiple Level 3 testing licenses and advances in Level 2 across several vendors highlight rapid progress being made in China.
• Friendly domestic environment will facilitate Level 3 autonomous driving offerings from large and small brands alike.

Beijing, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, San Diego, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo – April 25, 2024

Sales of passenger vehicles (PVs) with Level 3 autonomy are expected to reach over 25,000 globally in 2024 with China, Europe and the US likely to see rollouts this year, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Autonomous Passenger Vehicle Tracker and Forecast.

Source: Counterpoint Research Autonomous Vehicle Tracker and Forecast

China will be the main driver regionally considering the size and advanced state of its domestic PV market. Mercedes, being the first company to introduce Level 3 autonomy globally, is the first mover in this space, even as Chinese OEMs rapidly approach. “The government has always been a big supporter of autonomous driving technology, resulting in a mature and nuanced Level 2 ADAS environment,” said Research Analyst Shaochen Wang. “With the recent consolidation in regulation for higher-level autonomous driving, there have been multiple Level 3 testing licenses issued across the region, which is facilitating the healthy participation of a broad range of players both large and small – from solutions providers like Huawei to smaller EV brands like IM Motors.”

Source: Company Data

Chinese OEMs’ autonomous driving strategies remain consumer-centric in contrast to Tesla’s which is focused on enabling its Cyber Cab service with an in-house and consumer-owned fleet. “There is no right or wrong way as things are driven by culture,” observed Senior Analyst Ivan Lam. “US owners are likely to look at their cars more as a commodity, whereas in China, cars are still viewed very much as a luxury.”

Chinese OEMs are also parting ways in terms of technology, opting to adopt hybrid solutions which include Lidar and other sensor types. “Tesla has a big advantage in terms of mileage, but excluding Lidar sets the bar higher and increases risks significantly, regardless of how much training data there is,” said Research Analyst Mohit Sharma. “Having a more robust system will give Chinese OEMs an edge, at least in terms of hardware.”

As OEMs and solution providers continue to evolve hardware systems and expand training data, we expect China to reach an installed base of over 1 million Level 3 ADAS-enabled PVs on the road by 2026 and a shipment share of 10% by 2028.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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