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Report

Market Outlook - Smartphone Shipment and ASP Forecast by OEM Region, Sep 2025

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September 4, 2025

Overview: The overall smartphone ASP is projected to rise by 3.5% YoY to $370 in 2025, a higher forecast than our February prediction of a 2.3% increase. The main contributors to the uplift is due to Q2's strong growth in ASP in North America, driven by demand pull forward that benefitted the higher end especially, and a rebound in prices in India and the rest of APAC due to recovering economic conditions. The up-trend in ASP is expected to continue throughout the forecast period globally, as long term catalysts such as a shift toward higher-end smartphones and 5G migration will remain in place, while as downside risk due to economic worries seems to have been limited. The cost of 5G components and smartphones is expected to decline in the long-term as the technology matures and benefits from economies of scale, however, operational complexities, increasing demand for feature-rich devices, and a preference for flagship devices, will help drive pricing upwards. Leading OEMs like Apple and Samsung are increasingly targeting mature users who exhibit longer replacement cycles but prefer higher-value devices or innovative form factors, while almost all major Chinese OEMs have a strong emphasis on launching premium devices to maintain financial growth in a future where shipment gains will become elusive. The recent move by Apple to retire the iPhone SE line and instead extend the number series with the 16e, reflects these types of tactics, as top OEMs integrate GenAI features into smartphones, significantly increasing BoM costs, particularly in memory. While the full value of GenAI will likely only become clearer with future advancements, early signs suggest that consumers are interested in adopting the first generation of these Gen AI-enhanced devices.

Table of Contents:

  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Global
  • North America
  • Caribbean & Latin America
  • Middle East & Africa
  • Europe (Western Europe / Central & Eastern Europe)
  • Asia Pacific (China/India/Japan/Korea/AP Others)
  • Flatfile

Published Date: Sep 2025

Category

Industry

Smartphone

Service

Market Outlook ASP expansion

Report Type

Report

Time Period

Quarterly

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Author

Team Counterpoint

Counterpoint research is a young and fast growing research firm covering analysis of the tech industry. Coverage areas are connected devices, digital consumer goods, software & applications and other adjacent topics. We provide syndicated research report as well as tailored. Our seminars and workshops for companies and institutions are popular and available on demand. Consulting and customer