Market Outlook - Smartphone Model Level Forecast, June 2026 Update
Overview
The global smartphone market is projected to decline 13.9% in 2026, the steepest annual contraction on record.
Structural imbalances in global memory supply have accelerated sharply in recent weeks. The damage is falling disproportionately on lower-end devices. Mid-to-low-end OEMs are re-examining business viability in light of cost inflation, while also deploying stopgap measures including delayed launches, extended refresh cycles, and component-level shrinkflation to manage margins. The premium segment, by contrast, will prove more resilient. Apple and Samsung are better positioned to weather the disruption, underpinned by integrated supply chains and a well-established strategic shift toward premiumization.
This Excel report presents quarterly forecasts of smartphone model shipments by major brands through the end of 2027.
Table of Contents
- Key Assumptions
- Smartphone Model level forecast
Published Date: June 2026
Category
Industry
Smartphone
Service
Market Outlook Standard
Report Type
Report
Time Period
Quarterly
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Author
Sujeong Lim
Sujeong Lim is a Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research based out of Seoul Korea. In Counterpoint, she focuses on mobile ICT industry and mobile device research, especially dedicated on the Korea mobile market. After 10+ years product marketing experience during her working period, she joined Counterpoint to pursue her interest in IoT and emerging future technology.