LCD TV panel prices hit a new post-pandemic low in December 2025, but prices are starting to stabilize and will be heading up in Q1 2026 as controlled supply outweighs stagnant demand.
After some positive demand signals in the first months of 2025, the global TV market has weakened. The Chinese Singles Day promotions on 11/11 had disappointing results, and the country’s market in general is facing tough times. The subsidy program, which boosted demand in Q1 2025, is now hurting demand, since the subsidy pulled forward some demand that would have happened in 2026. Black Friday promotions in the US showed very aggressive pricing on ultra-large sizes, which may have stimulated some demand, but at the cost of lower margins for the major TV set OEMs, which continue to be locked in fierce competition.
The main inflection point for prices in Q1 2026 concerns constrained supply. Panel makers wish to give prices a boost, so they will take advantage of the annual Lunar New Year holiday (which starts on February 17) to take an extended shutdown. This constraint in supply, coupled with the modest boost to demand due to the World Cup, which starts in mid-June, will be enough to support price increases in February and March.
The first chart here highlights our latest TV panel price update with a forecast through March 2026. Since the beginning of 2024, we have seen two mild rallies and two mild slumps, and the most recent slump brought prices to their lowest point since 2022.
On average, prices in December came in close to our expectations, but a few were higher. We expected prices to be flat MoM for the smallest screen sizes but decrease for larger sizes to as much as 1.2% for 85”. We were right about the small sizes, but the decreases were slightly milder for larger sizes than we expected. For January 2026, we expect prices for all screen sizes to be stable.
