The US will again be the biggest shipment driver globally, and Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director for North America, believes “even without any ‘must-have’ specs, there will be tremendous appetite for upgrading because the iOS base is old in the US. Holding periods are nearing four years. iOS faithful are ready for new devices.” Changes to the North American carrier landscape will also provide a boost to 5G, and especially Apple. Mr. Fieldhack observes “T-Mobile has a 5G lead with its mid-band (2.5GHz) rollout and it will be aggressive in order to gain as many iOS subscribers as possible before Verizon and AT&T’s mid-band (3.5GHz) rollouts. The latter remains very aggressive upgrading both the base and switchers with aggressive promotions, and Verizon will need to keep pace to avoid missing out on premium 5G subscribers. The promotions in Q4 will be at very high levels – helping Apple.” “Combine all of the above with a nice pricing surprise like we saw last year, and it’s possible Apple could hit a significant milestone in terms of US installed base, where Android has been bleeding share to iOS, which now sits at around 44%. A strong holiday season, some economic recovery, further COVID easing and continued privacy and services push from Cupertino could certainly be enough to nudge the balance in Apple’s favor.” Background Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry. Analyst Contacts: Jeff Fieldhack jeff(at)counterpointresearch.com Follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter