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2018下半年中国智能手机市场:从价格之战到旗舰之战的升级

北京、香港、首尔、圣迭戈、布宜诺斯艾利斯、伦敦、新德里 – 2018年11月16日

2018下半年,中国智能手机市场仍未反弹,整体销量不容乐观。根据Counterpoint Research Market Pulse数据显示,2018年第三季度,虽然整体市场在新品发布的刺激下环比上涨6%,但同比下降13%,这已是中国智能手机市场连续第四季度同比下滑。宏观经济乏力及消费者换机周期延长是中国总体市场持续低迷的主要原因。

        品牌表现方面,中国品牌稳占第三季度销量排行榜Top 5 ,五个品牌的市场份额加总超过78%其中,VIVO、华为及荣耀逆势增长,成为第三季度最大赢家。VIVO同比增长2%,首次超越OPPO获得中国市场销量冠军,市占率接近20%;华为及荣耀增长势头强劲,涨幅最为亮眼,同比均增长14%,双品牌市场份额之和接近27%。 OPPO 同比下跌11%,但销量依然稳健,与排名第一的VIVO不相上下;小米由于年度旗舰小米8系列销量低于预期,销量同比下降15%,排名市场第五。

中国品牌之外,巨头苹果由于新品iPhone XS 及iPhone XS MAX价格高昂、与前代旗舰iPhone X相比创新不足,首发销量乏力,第三季度同比下降17%,排名跌落至第六。

图表:Q3 2018中国智能手机市场销量( Sell Through)及品牌表现

Source: Counterpoint Research Market Pulse Q3 2018

        回顾第三季度,分析师认为,VIVO、华为及荣耀逆势增长的主要原因,在于其强大的产品创新及供应链整合能力,将屏占比超过85%的“全面屏”技术、渐变色后盖、双摄、AI智能处理器等此前主要用于“旗舰”机型的产品设计及较高成本零部件,应用到了中端甚至中低端价位的机型,为市场带来众多性价比极优的产品,在暑期及开学季的带动下,一定程度上刺激了消费者(特别是年轻消费者)的换机欲望。这方面的代表机型包括:VIVO Y83 / Y85, VIVO Z1, 华为 Nova3 / Nova 3i, 荣耀 8X / 8X MAX, 荣耀9i, 荣耀 Play, 荣耀畅玩 7A/7C等。

 

2018年第四季度展望: 从价格之战到旗舰之战的升级

进入第四季度,全球瞩目的年度旗舰产品华为Mate20系列、苹果iPhone XR/XS系列以及荣耀Magic 2 纷纷亮相,在刚刚过去的“双十一”中展开了激烈的角逐。根据电商渠道的公开数据,荣耀在京东平台包揽11月11日手机销量&销售额,以及11.1~11.11手机累计销量&安卓手机累计销售额四冠王,苹果则在天猫平台获得双11当日手机品牌销售额第一。

在手机厂商年度旗舰新品发布以及渠道商“双十一”、“双十二”、“跨年促销”等多场营销活动的拉动下,第四季度通常是旗舰机型的热销季。分析师预计,市场将从第三季度的“性价比之战”过渡到第四季度的“旗舰之战”。在iOS最新产品的挑战下,如何在高端市场抢占“苹果”份额,赢得竞争先机,成为年终考验安卓厂商的主要难题。而最受市场关注的莫过于华为(包括荣耀)与苹果在旗舰市场的竞争。

根据Counterpoint Market Pulse数据显示,2018年第三季度,华为(包括荣耀)凭借P20及荣耀Note10的热销,在$400-$600美金价位段的旗舰市场领先优势显著,已超越苹果占比43%。苹果继续领跑$600美金以上高端旗舰市场,并由于渠道提供折扣促销iPhone X及iPhone 8Plus,苹果占比升至65%。华为则因P20 Pro的良好表现,在高端旗舰市场的份额也增至20%(详见下图)。

Q3 2017 Vs. Q3 2018: China premium market share by brands (wholesale price in USD)

Q3 2017 Vs. Q3 2018: China premium market share by brands (wholesale price in USD)

2018年第四季度,我们预计华为凭借其Mate 20系列及荣耀Magic 2将继续引领旗舰市场先锋;同时,华为Mate 20 Pro也将在高端旗舰市场对苹果构成挑战。 苹果提升新品售价,即使iPhone XS及iPhone XS MAX两款型号的销量之和只与去年的iPhone X持平,苹果依然能够享受销售额及利润的增长。然而Counterpoint监测到的数据显示,iPhone XS及iPhone XS MAX首发势头并不强劲。部分渠道提供折扣后,iPhone XS MAX销量开始增长,然而iPhone XS销量依然疲软。苹果期望售价较低的iPhone XR带动换机需求,然而在iPhone XR售价高于Mate 20Pro及荣耀Magic 2比较下,其后置单摄、6.1英寸LCD屏、不支持千兆LTE等限制,预计将受到产品创新更为显著、后置“保时捷车灯”三摄组合的华为Mate 20 Pro及屏占比更优、后置AI三摄的荣耀 Magic 2的挑战(详情请见下表)。与此同时,小米Mix 3、OPPO Find X及VIVO NEX也在旗舰市场为用户提供了更多的选择。

Comparison on Key Specs

huawei    
HUAWEI MATE20 PRO (UD) HONOR MAGIC 2 iPhone XR
6.39-inch AMOLED screen, 1440 x 3120 pixels, 19.5:9 ratio 6.39-inch AMOLED screen, 1080 x 2340 pixels, 19.5:9 ratio 6.1-Inch LCD Screen, 828 x 1792 pixels,19.5:9 ratio
Android 9.0 (Pie) Android 9.0 (Pie) iOS 12
HiSilicon Kirin 980 (7 nm) HiSilicon Kirin 980 (7 nm) Apple A12 Bionic (7 nm)
Triple main camera:

40 MP, f/1.8, 27mm (wide)

20 MP, f/2.2, 16mm (ultrawide)

8 MP, f/2.4, 80mm (telephoto),

 Triple main camera:

16 MP, f/1.8, PDAF
16 MP, f/2.2
24 MP B/W, f/1.8

 

Single main camera: 12 MP, f/1.8, 26mm (wide), 1/2.55″, 1.4µm
4,200 mAh battery 3,500 mAh battery 2,942mAh-battery
Face ID + FoD Face ID + FoD Face ID
¥6,799 (8+256 GB) ¥4,799 (8+256 GB) ¥7,899 (3+256 GB)

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