Our Research Vice President Neil Shah is joining ET Telecom’s Open RAN Summit on 31st July, 2024. He will also be moderating a panel discussion. More details below:
Session: Will the Indian industry embrace Open RAN technology? When: Wednesday, July 31, 2024 Where: Virtual
Keynote:
Dr. Rajkumar Upadhyay – CEO, C-DOT
Speakers:
Rajesh Singh, EVP – Network Planning and Strategy, Vodafone Idea
SP Kochhar – Director General, COAI
Manish Mangal – CTO, Telecom and Global Business Head, Network Services, Tech Mahindra
Chitranjan Singh – CEO, Ananant Systems
About the Event:
Open RAN will be a critical part of 5G. But are there challenges on the road to implementation. ET Telecom’s sessions during the Open RAN Summit will deliberate on the benefits and shortcomings in the context of the Indian telecom industry. ET Telecom, a specialized vertical of the Economic Times, will conduct Tech Series 2024 – on Open RAN bringing technology heads, and industry officials to discuss the technology and telecom industry’s shift to Open RAN.
Our Senior Analyst, Tina Lu, will be speaking at the 5G Americas Virtual Forum on 24th July, 2024.
Session: 5G FWA Growth in Latin America Date: 24th July, 2024 Time: 1.20 PM ET
About the Event: 5G Americas is an industry trade organization comprised of leading telecommunications service providers and manufacturers. The organization’s mission is to promote and foster the advancement and full capabilities of LTE wireless technologies and their evolution to 5G, across all networks, services, applications and connected devices in the ecosystem in the Americas.
They are committed to developing a connected wireless community while leading the development of 5G for the entire Americas. 5G Americas is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington, USA.
Generative AI (GenAI) is developing into more than a buzzword as various industries now realize its benefits and wide range of applications. The telecom industry can also gain from GenAI with use cases such as network optimization, enhanced customer experience, content personalization and AI chatbots. At the recently concluded Amdocs APAC Analyst Summit in Singapore, Neil Shah, VP of Research at Counterpoint Research sat down with Ofir Daniel, Head of Platforms Marketing at Amdocs, to talk about the strategy and use cases of GenAI for telcos.
The interview
Key takeaways from the discussion
• Beyond traditional AI, Amdocs sees GenAI as a powerful tool to accelerate day-to-day business processes. Amdocs has analyzed 600 ideas and mapped over 120 use cases across seven domains.
• Amdocs’ new ‘amAIz’ platform is designed to integrate telco workflows with GenAI capabilities. This includes customer care, sales, end-to-end service orchestration, inventory management and even troubleshooting.
• amAIz is a scalable platform that will allow telcos to bring GPTs to the telco domain.
• Initial GenAI use cases focus on sales and customer care where AI chatbots can manage routine customer enquiries and offer targeted recommendations.
• GenAI can also streamline B2B sales by generating proposals and optimizing the pricing based on customer profiles that suit their needs and usage patterns, including data usage and travel habits. This will help sales representatives to close more deals and increase revenue.
• Besides building the proprietary Copilot using its IP and software, Amdocs has also partnered with Microsoft to integrate Copilot assistant with its Customer Experience Platform (CEP), and to work with its OSS and BSS systems.
• Operators are in the initial stages of testing Copilot applications, and it will take a while before Copilot moves to autopilot.
Analyst takeaways:
• The biggest challenge faced by today’s telcos remains the same – monetization and cost savings in leveraging newer technologies whether its 5G, AI or Cloud.
• With 5G, the entire telco architecture has been transformed allowing telcos to cloudify everything beyond the RAN and drive various levels of automation to increase efficiency, scalability and drive costs down.
• However, the different levels of automation, right from RAN and Transport to Core networks, can be further enabled by AI advancement as the industry shifts to GenAI.
• Players such as Amdocs are innovating on GenAI capabilities to enable intelligent digital transformation with a platform approach by striking the right partnerships with hyperscalers as well as AI-enablers such as OpenAI, Mistral and NVIDIA.
• Amdocs is bringing its GenAI demos and use cases to telcos and potentially similar verticals. Its amAIz platform targets multiple domains such as customer care, CRM, billing, services orchestration and network troubleshooting.
• Amdocs is a one-stop shop and a leader for anything related to software, IT, services, automation if you are a telco (or any big enterprise) with unparalleled knowledge, capabilities and experience in their digitally transformational journey. This capability and experience expand across operations from billing and marketing to customer experience and analytics.
• The GenAI-led digital transformation is real and is bringing about some significant use cases.
Small cell solutions provider Picocom is making innovative use of RISC-V processors in the Open RAN market. Committed to open standards, Picocom’s innovative solution offers a unique value proposition. Gareth Owen, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, sat down with Picocom CEO Peter Clayton at MWC 2024 in Barcelona to discuss the company’s product portfolio that includes PC802 and PC805, its differentiation strategy and target markets.
The interview
Key takeaways from the discussion
Picocom’s USP and product differentiation:
• Unlike incumbents like Huawei and Ericsson, who design their own SoCs for their RAN products, Picocom focuses on Open RAN, offering small cell SoCs to cater to the needs of smaller OEMs in the market.
• By leveraging RISC-V cores, Picocom offers open standard processors, which helps its customers avoid vendor lock-ins.
Product portfolio and software solutions:
• PC802 is Picocom’s first chip and has been in the market for around two years now, catering to the physical layer of baseband processing for several applications and use cases.
• PC805 is the newly launched SoC featuring an integrated radio transceiver, and initial samples have been shipped to the customers already.
• The PC805 development board comes with a complete Open RAN Radio Unit (O-RU) enabling high-power output.
• When it comes to software, Picocom offers both source code and binary code licensing, thus enabling customers to choose the level of customization to suit their specific needs.
Target markets:
• Picocom has global presence through partnerships and system integrators, but most of its OEM customers are in Asia, including China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. However, these OEMs sell their products globally.
• It is also seeing demand from European and North American markets.
• After launching the PC805, Picocom is also seeing significant interest in O-RUs for both indoor and outdoor applications.
Analyst takeaways:
• Picocom is pioneering a range of Open RAN-based small cell SoC solutions and to date have launched two RISC-V based chipsets.
• The PC802 is a flexible silicon solution that is equally suitable for traditional LTE/5G NR distributed architecture. It can be used for a wide range of applications, including indoor residential, enterprise and industrial networks, as well as neutral host network applications.
• The PC805 chip is the first SoC optimized for 5G O-RUs. It interfaces with a DU as part of O-RAN Split 7.2x via an open fronthaul eCPRI interface and supports seamless connections to RFICs, with the option of also using standard JESD204B high-speed serial interfaces.
Counterpoint Research is pleased to announce its participation as a Media Partner in DTW24 Ignite.
When: 18th – 20th June, 2024
Where: Copenhagen
About the Event:
DTW24-Ignite will return to Copenhagen from June 18-20, offering a comprehensive exploration into future-proofing one’s AI-native journey from design to delivery. This event will provide invaluable insights into harnessing the transformative power of AI for innovation and leveraging the capabilities of composable IT. Attendees will have the opportunity to learn how to enhance intelligent networks and implement AI and automation at scale, while also exploring strategic initiatives and adjacent opportunities that unlock new revenue streams.
5G technology offers a significant leap over 4G, unlocking low-latency, high-upload and high-download speeds in today’s connected era. But as we rely more on connectivity for new and immersive experiences for applications like Extended Reality (XR), connected cars and even generative AI applications, 5G Advanced will push the boundaries of what is possible.
5G Advanced Release 18 is nearing completion with finalization expected in June 2024, whereas Release 19 is estimated to be completed in the second half of 2025. From massive network capacity to ultra-low latency and speeds, 5G Advanced enhances network performance, reduces energy consumption, which is good for sustainability, and brings new use cases like non-terrestrial network (NTN) integration.
In the latest episode of The Counterpoint Podcast, host Gareth Owen is joined by Danny Tseng, Technical Director of Marketing at Qualcomm, to discuss 5G Advanced and current and future advancements in the 5G technology. The discussion focuses on how 5G Advanced will play a crucial role in network performance and energy efficiency, while also integrating new applications like IoT and AI. The conversation also briefly touches upon 6G and beyond.
00:58 – Gareth kickstarts the discussion by asking Danny about the status of Release 18 and Release 19.
03:03 – Danny talks about new capabilities and performance improvements of 5G Advanced that will benefit the operators.
04:53 – Danny on new energy-saving features that will be introduced in Release 18 and Release 19.
07:06 – Danny highlights the opportunities for both operators and the satellite industry.
11:22 – AI in air interface is a hot topic. Gareth asks Danny to give the latest information on Qualcomm’s tests on various AI-based air interface use cases.
17:47 – Danny wraps up thoughts on Release 20, followed by Release 21, which is when work on 6G is expected to start.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming a ubiquitous technology. However, a major downside is that AI processing in the cloud requires a massive amount of power. In this regard, on-device AI can be a boon for sustainability as it processes data directly on a device, which translates into less energy consumption and a smaller carbon footprint. Qualcomm is already focusing on on-device AI, energy-efficient chipsets, and collaborating across industries to promote sustainable practices. At MWC 2024, Jan Stryjak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research had a quick chat with Angela Baker, Qualcomm’s Chief Sustainability Officer on the company’s sustainability efforts and initiatives in this area.
The Interview
Key takeaways from the discussion:
On-device AI for efficiency:
• On-device AI processing is a key driver for sustainability.
• Energy consumption can be reduced by processing data on the device, rather than sending it to the cloud.
• Qualcomm is already researching to quantify these efficiency gains.
5G for efficiency across industries:
• Beyond smartphones, various industries can benefit from Qualcomm’s tech.
• 5G is a good example as it is 90% more efficient than 4G networks.
• It can improve efficiency in agriculture, manufacturing, and connected vehicles.
• With future generations like 6G, Qualcomm will focus on building even more energy-efficient networks.
Balancing sustainability with growth:
• It is always a challenge to align business practices of selling new devices versus promoting sustainability.
• Qualcomm is addressing this by extending software updates for IoT devices (8-10 years).
• Qualcomm is also diversifying into new markets like automotive and IoT.
Adapting to regulations:
• New regulations around sustainability reporting (e.g. CSRD in Europe) are driving Qualcomm’s efforts.
• Qualcomm is conducting a double materiality assessment to align its ESG reporting with the financial strategy.
Analyst Takeaways:
• Qualcomm is at the forefront of AI innovation, and its key messages at MWC were around on-device AI, energy-efficient chipsets, and collaborating across industries to promote sustainable practices.
• There are two key questions around sustainability for tech companies in the AI era. The first is how to improve or even maintain energy efficiency given the vast requirements of 5G networks and AI processors. The second is how to balance sustainability (for example, by increasing device durability) with business growth (for example, through the sale of more devices).
• Qualcomm has a good answer to the first: 5G is more efficient than 4G, and combined with AI, it can bring about efficiency improvements in other sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and connected vehicles, not just the mobile space. As for balancing sustainability versus growth, this is much more of a challenge, but diversification into new markets like automotive and IoT can help.
• To become truly sustainable, companies need to ingrain their eco targets into their business KPIs and not just a part of marketing or CSR/ESG reporting. Qualcomm is doing this better than many other companies, as sustainability appears to be more tightly aligned with the company’s goals and business models.
The recent surge in interest in generative AI highlights the critical role that AI will play in future wireless systems. With the transition to 5G, wireless systems have become increasingly complex and more challenging to manage. In particular, the heterogenous nature of 5G networks comprising multiple access networks, frequency bands and cells, all with overlapping coverage areas, presents operators with network planning and deployment challenges. This is forcing the wireless industry to think beyond traditional rules-based design methods and turn to AI and ML.
5G Advanced is set to expand the role of wireless AI across 5G networks introducing new, innovative AI applications that will enhance the design and operation of networks and devices over the next three to five years, particularly those demanding high data rates, low latency or massive connectivity such as Extended Reality (XR), Reduced Capex (RedCap), Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) as well as applications requiring precise positioning and synchronization.
This Technology Report provides an overview of the role of AI/ML in the 3GPP’s upcoming 5G Advanced standard and outlines the key technologies and use cases where it will be used.
Key Takeaway No. 1: AI will be transformative
Although the application of AI/ML is still in its infancy, its integration into 5G-Advanced networks signifies a transformative shift in the telecommunications market. This development promises not only improved network performance but also opens the door to a wide range of innovative use cases. As a result, the commercial launch of 5G-Advanced in 2025 should accelerate the monetization of 5G for operators.
Key Takeaway No. 2: A Bridge to 6G
The adoption of AI/ML in 5G Advanced provides a platform to experiment with new techniques and should be regarded as a trial for the full introduction of AI/ML in future 6G networks. For example, 6G will be the first opportunity where AI/ML-based optimization will be used in the fundamental design of an air interface from the very beginning. However, the impact of AI/ML will not only enable improved 5G/6G performance, it should also allow 5G-Advanced to evolve faster.
Analysing The Role of AI/ML in 5G Advanced
The full version of this insight report, including a complete set of Key Takeaways is published in the following report, available to clients of Counterpoint Research’s 5G Network Infrastructure Service (5GNI).
Marvell reported a slight increase in revenue in Q4 2024, up 1% sequentially to $1.43 billion. However, the highlight of the quarter was the high growth recorded in its data centre business, which benefited from increased AI spending. Compared to Q3, data centre revenues increased 38% and were up 54% on a YoY basis. Overall fiscal 2024 revenue totalled $5.5 billion with strong growth in the H2 driven by AI demand. However, Marvell posted a $392.7 million net loss, a lot worse than the $15.4 million it posted in the previous year.
For Q1 2025, Marvell is forecasting total revenues of $1.15 billion with weak demand expected to continue in the carrier, enterprise and consumer segments. However, the company expects that revenues in these segments will stabilise after Q1 2025, with a recovery expected in H2 2025.
Data Centre Segment
Data centre revenue reached $765 million in Q4 with cloud services being a significant contributor while revenue from AI-driven optics exceeded $200 million (Exhibit 1). In fact, data centre revenue – particularly AI-driven optics – accelerated throughout the year, increasing from around one-third of total revenue in Q1 to more than half at the end of Q4. Clearly, the acquisition of Inphi is proving to be a major strategic asset.
Demand for its cloud-optimized silicon solutions is up, driven by the increase in AI and accelerated computing investment. The chip vendor has successfully executed several 5nm designs in the last two years and expects initial shipments for its two 5nm AI compute programs to start in Q1 2025. Marvell believes that it is on track for a very substantial ramp-up in H2 2025.
Marvell reported that it is also heavily engaged with cloud customers on new 3nm opportunities and remains confident of its 3nm funnel and design win rates. In addition, AI is increasing the cadence of new chip releases, and this plays well to Marvell’s strength as a key partner for its cloud customers with a proven ASIC platform.
The company also announced an extension of its long-standing collaboration with TSMC to develop the industry’s first technology platform to produce 2nm chips optimized for accelerated infrastructure. This new platform will enable Marvell to deliver substantial advancements in performance, power and area, which will be critical for next-generation accelerated workloads.
Carrier and Enterprise Networking
Carrier and enterprise markets have been experiencing a period of weak industry demand for several months. As a result, revenues at both segments were down sequentially in Q4. Marvell expects further sequential declines in Q1 of approximately 50% for carrier networking and 40% for enterprise. Beyond Q1, Marvell expects these markets to stabilise and forecasts a recovery in fiscal H2 2025.
This exhibit compares Data Centre versus Carrier Network revenues during 2023-2034.
At their peak during the pandemic, the carrier and enterprise networking market contributed a total of $2.5 billion to Marvell’s revenue. Looking forward, Marvell expects both of these markets to contribute over $1 billion each in revenue on an annual basis once demand normalizes. Both these businesses have very long product life cycles – typically seven years in production. In particular, Marvell stresses that it has not lost business or market share, with the lower revenues being attributable to demand softness and inventory corrections. In fact, the company maintains that its up-coming product upgrades will drive up revenues as both these cyclical markets recover over the next few years.
Analyst Viewpoint
Marvell is a critical enabler of accelerated infrastructure for AI with a full suite of solutions across data centre interconnect, switching and compute plus in-house expertise to integrate all these technologies together. Essentially, the company is a one-stop shop for data centres. As a result, Counterpoint Research believes that the company is well positioned to capitalise on the massive AI-based technology build-out as it continues to gain momentum during 2024.
Growth in generative AI applications is driving cloud providers to build new data centres. As a result, Marvell is experiencing an increase in design wins in AI, custom silicon and networking optics. This is providing good opportunities, particularly in custom silicon. However, this is not a zero-sum game with both the merchant and custom silicon expected to benefit. Also, the on-going transformation of data centre architectures is resulting in increased investment in inferencing, which drives more bandwidth between data centres, resulting in more demand for Marvell’s data centre interconnect products.
In Q1 of fiscal 2025, Marvell expects continued sequential growth in its data centre revenues with initial shipments of its cloud-optimized silicon programmes for AI complementing its electro-optics products. Carrier, enterprise and consumer markets are expected to bottom out in Q1 – representing a cyclical trough – which limits any downside. With a healthy gross margin of 42.1% and focus on high-growth areas (and clear view of demand for fiscal 2025 and 2026), Counterpoint Research believes that Marvell is set for recovery and a profitable fiscal 2025.
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