Market Outlook - Smartphone Shipment and ASP Forecast by OEM Region, September 2026
Overview
The overall smartphone ASP is projected to rise by 22% YoY to $450 in 2026, a substantial increase to reflect the memory price increases. The price increases are the steepest in emerging markets, i.e., MEA and APAC Others, which both see a greater than 20% ASP increase. We assume a hollowing out of the lowest new device price bands. Some demand trades up, some extends replacement cycles, and some migrates to refurbished or second-hand devices. Consequently, higher reported ASP should not be interpreted as universally stronger pricing power or consumer willingness to spend. In several regions, ASP expansion coexists with lower units and weak revenue. Portfolio rationalization disproportionately raises ASP for value tier manufacturers because the models withdrawn are concentrated at the bottom of their price ladders. Premium OEMs experience a smaller mix effect and rely more on direct cost pass-through.
Revenue remains an important triangulator: where shipments are materially reduced, the base case generally avoids allowing ASP to increase enough to produce implausibly strong revenue growth without a specific premium mix rationale.
What the Full Report Will Cover
The report provides Counterpoint Research’s latest global smartphone ASP and revenue forecast, covering key market assumptions, technology trends and forecast changes. It includes detailed regional outlooks across North America, Latin America, Middle East & Africa, Europe and Asia Pacific, with additional coverage of major markets including China, India, Japan and Korea.
Who Should Read This
This report is designed for smartphone OEMs, component suppliers, semiconductor companies, channel partners, investors and strategy teams seeking to understand the factors shaping the global smartphone market and future demand.
Key Questions the Report Answers
- What is the outlook for the global smartphone market?
- What factors are driving the current market downturn?
- How are component costs and affordability pressures affecting smartphone demand and reflected in ASP?
- How will market trends differ across major regions and countries?
- When is the smartphone market expected to return to stronger growth?
- When will smartphone ASPs return to a normalization path?
- How are market and technology developments changing the smartphone forecast?
Category
Industry
Smartphone
Service
Market Outlook ASP expansion
Report Type
Report
Time Period
Quarterly
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Author
Yang Wang
Yang is a Principal Analyst at Counterpoint Research, based out of London. Yang has 10 years of work experience with particular interest in mobile devices, ecosystems, Emerging Markets, supply chain and macro topics that affect the global technology industry. As a tech analyst he has been quoted extensively by leading financial and media outlets. Yang started his career as a management trainee at Jardine Matheson, worked in business development at a SaaS startup, and most recently held marketing and research roles at KaiOS Technologies. Yang holds a Master of Science in Management from London Business School, and a Master of Science in Psychology from the University College of London.
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Kamal Singh
Kamal Singh is a market and product researcher with over six years of experience, currently specializing in the global smartphone market at Counterpoint Research. He works within the Market Monitor Service, contributing to quarterly analyses of global smartphone shipments and supporting the development of the Market Outlook. Kamal tracks global smartphone trends, product launches, and brand strategies, providing data-driven insights and analytical support for client requests. With a background in mechanical engineering, he combines technical understanding with strong strategic research capabilities to deliver comprehensive market intelligence.
Hyunwoo Kang
Hyunwoo Kang is a Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, based in Seoul, Korea, focusing on the display and smartphone industries. His current research covers TV, automotive displays, display CapEx, and the smartphone market, with a focus on market analysis, industry trends, and technology developments. Prior to joining Counterpoint Research, he gained experience in equity research and investment analysis. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from Kyung Hee University. He specializes in analyzing market data and industry trends to provide data-driven insights that support strategic decision-making across the technology sector.