Overview:
The global smartphone market shrank 4.4% YoY in 2023, recording its lowest level in a decade, as macroeconomic headwinds and consumer weakness continued to pressure the industry throughout the year. However, we have seen momentum building in H2 2023, with Q4 2023 consolidating gains and pointing to an expected recovery in 2024. The smartphone market grew 6.8% YoY and exceeding earlier expectations. Samsung retained the spot as the world's top smartphone player annually by a tiny margin in 2023. In terms of regional performance, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) exhibited the highest annual shipment growth while North America (NAM) experienced the greatest decline.

• Apple achieved better shipments than expected in Q4 2023, growing 2% YoY, despite increased competition from Huawei. While Apple did lose some share in the China premium market segment to Huawei, it was not sufficient to significantly slow Apple's global momentum. Apple is expected to keep growing in 2024, backed by an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem and compatibility between devices in advanced markets with refresh lineups and in emerging regions with old models, respectively.
  For the iPhone 16 series, Apple is expected to apply on-device generative AI and significantly improve microphone performance to maximize its use. Based on the abundant IB of the iPhone 13, the iPhone 16 series will be able to achieve the higher shipments than its predecessors in the first year of release.
• The successful introduction of the On-Device AI concept will play a crucial role in Samsung's efforts to gain a larger share in the premium market with the S24. It is projected that the shipment of the S24 during its launch year will exceed that of the S23 by 10%. Furthermore, with the improved responsiveness of Samsung's self-developed Exynos 2400 compared to its predecessor, Samsung will be better positioned to expand its portfolio of AI-capable devices in the future.

In this report, we forecast the quarterly shipment of key smartphone models by major OEMs – Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, Oneplus, Motorola, Google, and Sony - until Q4 2025 and it focuses on giving a detailed view of flagship shipments globally.