Overview:

• Global smartphone sell through declined (YoY) in September after a brief recovery last month
  • Global smartphone sell-through declined (8% YoY) in Sept after a slight recovery last month driven by a steep decline in the China due to seasonality and the decline of Huawei and Apple.
  • The delayed launch of the iPhone 12 has affected the growth of its key markets like the US. However, the sales in the India market showed strong growth in September due to the onset of the festive season, and the momentum is likely to continue in October.
  • Competition is eyeing the gap left by Huawei and building up a healthy inventory. Xiaomi reached its highest ever sell-in during the quarter. OPPO and Vivo have also been aggressive in September. Hence, sell-in recovered stronger than sell-through.
• China smartphone market saw a steep decline – one of its highest ever down -24% YoY
  • Huawei, who had been pushing aggressively in China, started to lose steam and declined 17% YoY and 24% MoM in September. The lack of refresh of the portfolio is curbing demand, and Huawei is losing mindshare. Apple also declined over 50% YoY due to a delayed launch.
  • September was also seasonally weak in China after summer promotions in July and Aug. Aug was also the 10th anniversary for Xiaomi which ran heavy promotions. This cooled down in September. Consumers were also holding their purchases for the holiday season in October as well.
  • However, according to Counterpoints Weekly Sales tracker, the last few days in Sept saw a steep recovery in sell-through in China as the holiday season approached.
• Premium segment share declines as Apple sales cool
  • $600-$799 weakened due to seasonality of Apple as consumers waited for new series launch and price erosion of older series.
  • However, we are expecting Apple to have a very strong Q4, driven by 5G upgrades. Initial preorders for Apple were very strong. Launch of 5G devices by Apple will also give much needed boost to the 5G ecosystem. Steep marketing activities from operators are expected around the iPhone 12 series. Apple is expected to outperform the global smartphone market in 2020.

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