China's Auto Market Outlook 8% Lower Than Previous Year
"China saw its first drop since the 1990s in 2018 with sales of 28 million cars, a 3% drop from 2017. This downward trend will continue in 2019. With General Motors, Ford, and Peugeot already experiencing double-digit percentage sales drop vs; last year, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), has revised its forecast of China's 2019 sales dropping further to about 26 million, a decline of around 8% which is in-line with Counterpoint’s forecasts.
The key reasons are slowing economic growth amidst US-China trade tension, better local public transportation, ride-sharing options and the tighter vehicle emissions standards pushing buyers towards New Energy Vehicles (NEVs). However, the progressive reduction of subsidies in the NEV category has not helped. The NEV sales have also dropped 34% YoY in September, following a 16% decline in August.
CAAM, however, maintains that China continues to be on track to grow to 30 million by 2023, if not more. For any recovery to happen, an urgent first-quarter policy intervention, stimulating economic growth, would need to be announced within the next two months." - Vinay Piparsania
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Nov 5, 2019
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