•    Top five WFE manufacturer’s memory revenue rose 38% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 due to strong DRAM shipments especially in HBM.
•    Revenue from China rose 48% YoY during the period. China’s share expected to decline due to export control regulations and consolidation of legacy node fabs. Strength in mature node spending in China to decline in 2025.
•    H2 2024 will be stronger than H1 fuelled by leading-edge investments in logic foundry and memory. This is set to continue in 2025.
•    FY 2024 revenue is forecast to be 4% higher than that in 2023, while 2025 revenue is expected to see a double-digit YoY increase.

The top five WFE manufacturers’ net revenue increased 3% YoY during the first three quarters of 2024 with only ASML declining 6% YoY. Lam Research and Tokyo Electron’s revenue rose 12% YoY and 10% YoY, respectively, during the period, while KLA Tencor and Applied Materials’ revenue increased 8% YoY and 3% YoY respectively. Meanwhile, the top five WFE makers’ collective service revenue increased 7% YoY which helped net revenue growth.

Revenue from foundry increased 17% QoQ and 12% YoY in Q3 2024 due to customers transitioning from FinFET to GAAFET, and the ramp up of GAAFET to high volume production, which helped limit the overall decline in foundry revenue to 10% YoY during the first three quarters of 2024.

Memory increased 38% YoY during the period due to strong DRAM shipments especially in HBM. However, revenue from memory increased in low-single digit percentages during Q3 2024 as compared to Q2 due to lower DRAM shipments which had otherwise witnessed continuous growth since H2 2023.

The top five WFE players’ revenue from shipments to China surged to 48% YoY and accounted for 42% of the net system sales during Jan-Sept 2024 compared to 29% during the year-ago period. However, the sequential growth was only 2% in Q3 compared to that in Q2.

For full-year 2024, the world’s top five WFE manufacturers’ revenue is forecast to be 4% higher than that in 2023. Meanwhile, 2025 revenue is expected to see a double-digit YoY increase. The growth will be primarily driven by capacity increases in leading-edge logic and foundry, applications including generative AI and high-performance computing (HPC), and a recovery in end-demand for chips.

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