• Xfinity is leaning on aggressive Black Friday promotions to close out Q4 on a strong note as it continues to be outpaced by Spectrum in wireless net adds.
• Artificial intelligence across Apple and Google is still an ambiguous value proposition to consumers and is not necessarily moving the needle.
• Google is working to educate consumers at the carrier point of sale with interactive on-device demos that explain key features enabled by on-device AI.

The US is set to kick off its main holiday shopping season with Black Friday sales next week. Counterpoint analysts are on the ground to keep track of the smartphone market’s moves during this period. In the following sections, they present some key insights into the market landscape just before the crucial shopping season.

Xfinity growing more aggressive
Comcast is aiming to close the gap between itself and its cable MVNO counterpart Charter, who is undergoing a plan restructuring effort, during Q4. It is taking advantage of aggressive device promotions in tandem with attractive bundling options.

iPhone 16 display at Xfinity
Source: Counterpoint Research

Xfinity Mobile is advertising ‘free 5G phones’ offering up to $1,000 off on a trade-in for the iPhone 16 series with the featured Pro model. It is also offering up to $1,000 off for the Galaxy S24 lineup, Galaxy Z 6 series and the full Pixel 9 lineup. This has been the most aggressive trade-in promotion mix that we have seen so far from Xfinity Mobile. Besides, it is offering $35 per month for a year on an unlimited wireless line and 300 mbps broadband service for new residential customers.

Google Pixel display at Xfinity Store
Source: Counterpoint Research

Counterpoint Research has also noted a relocation of Xfinity stores to areas closer to postpaid carrier locations, with one relocating from across a strip mall in Colorado to a suite directly next to the largest T-Mobile store in the area. This could signal that Xfinity is increasingly prioritizing its brick-and-mortar retail presence. Spectrum far outpaces Xfinity in physical location count.

Apple Intelligence not moving the needle (yet)

After speaking with retailers across the major carriers, Apple Intelligence doesn’t seem to be turning heads in the way Apple likely hoped it would. Store reps often cannot clearly articulate all of the features. With so many not knowing what Apple Intelligence can do, it is no surprise that even in the wake of the iOS 18.1 update, sales are not surpassing iPhone 15 levels in the US.

iPhone devices (left half) on same block as Pixel 9 lineup (right half)
Source: Counterpoint Research

According to Counterpoint’s US Channel Share Tracker, total sell-through in the US was down 2% YoY in October with Apple down mid-single digits. Meanwhile, Google showed strength and grew YoY.

Google is making strides in educating the consumer on the benefits of on-device AI features. The Google Pixel 9 series has a fantastic interactive demo walkthrough on devices at carrier locations. It guides customers through photo-editing features, Gemini in chats, and content creation features. The Pixel 9 series has been seen on display directly beside the iPhone 16 series in multiple locations. With both boasting on-device AI, being featured alongside one another, and coming in at similar price points, educating the customer on the software benefits is crucial. Google is delivering well in this aspect.

Google Pixel with Gemini featured on both digital boards at T-Mobile
Source: Counterpoint Research

Promotions significantly ramping up early for Black Friday

Given a slower October and start to the holiday season, Counterpoint expects the US carriers and OEMs to ramp up marketing efforts during the week of Black Friday to close out November on a positive note. T-Mobile has already announced a swath of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals featuring strong Apple promotions. Best Buy has also brought its Black Friday deals online, featuring a wide range of Samsung and Motorola promotions. Google Pixels continue to be aggressively discounted across all carriers and are running unlocked promotions through the Google Store for Black Friday.

T-Mobile:

• It is offering four new voice lines for $25 per line and four iPhone 16s free with eligible trade-ins.
• T-Mobile is also continuing its iPhone 16 Pro promotion of $1,000 off with eligible trade-in on Go5G Next but after adding in a free set of the AirPods 4 for Cyber Monday.
• It is offering the Apple Watch SE Gen 2 40mm free on adding a watch line online, $250 off the iPad mini with the A17 Pro, and $400 off the iPad 10^th Gen when adding a tablet line.
• T-Mobile also noted that it would be ramping up its Apple Watch promotions ahead of Christmas with $250 off the Series 10 and Ultra 2 after December 12.

Best Buy:

• Samsung
  • The Galaxy S24 Ultra unlocked model is being offered for $350 off, a 27% discount.
  • The Galaxy A35 is being offered for $100 off, a 33% discount.
  • The Galaxy S24 FE is being offered for $175 off, a 27% discount.
• Motorola
  • The Moto razr+ 2023 is being offered for $500 off, a 50% discount.
  • The Moto g play is being offered for $40 off, a 27% discount.
  • The Moto g stylus 2024 is being offered for $150 off, a 38% discount.
  • Many other Motorola devices are being offered at similar steep discounts.

Google:

• Verizon is offering the Pixel 9 Pro for $1,000 off with a trade-in and a Watch 2 and Tab S9 FE when adding extra device lines.
• AT&T is offering for free the Pixel 9, Pixel 9 Pro and Pixel 9 Pro XL.
• T-Mobile is also offering for free the Pixel 9, Pixel 9 Pro and Pixel 9 Pro XL. The Pixel 9 Pro Fold is being offered at $1,000 off.
• The Google Store is offering $150 off the Pixel 9, Pixel 9 Pro and Pixel 9 Pro XL. It is also offering the Pixel 8a for $100 off and $300 off the Pixel 9 Pro Fold.